BNP landslide signals foreign policy reset in Bangladesh: Al Jazeera

Bangladesh's recent parliamentary election, in which a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led coalition secured a two-thirds majority with 209 seats, marks what analysts describe as a significant "paradigm shift" in the country's political and regional orientation.

The victory of the BNP, led by Tarique Rahman, ends the era of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and is expected to trigger a recalibration of Dhaka's relations with India, Pakistan and China, says Al Jazeera.

Recalibrating ties with India

Under Hasina's administration, Bangladesh maintained close ties with neighbouring India. However, relations deteriorated after a 2024 uprising forced Hasina into exile in India.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh," adding that the victory "shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership." He also stated, "As two close neighbours with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, I reaffirmed India's continued commitment to the peace, progress, and prosperity of both our peoples."

Analysts suggest the BNP will pursue a pragmatic approach toward Delhi. Asif Bin Ali, a geopolitical analyst at Georgia State University, said the new government has "strong incentives to move back to a working relationship with India, even if it cannot and should not reproduce the level of political closeness seen under Sheikh Hasina." He added that Dhaka is likely to take "a more cautious middle position that stresses mutual respect, reciprocal sovereignty and noninterference."

Delwar Hossain, professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka, called the election outcome "a new turning point in crafting bilateral relations with India and Pakistan." He noted that "the continuing India-Pakistan hostility and China-India rivalry may remain critical determinants of Bangladesh's foreign policy moves."

Persistent issues include India's refusal to extradite Hasina despite a death sentence from Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal, longstanding disputes over Teesta River water sharing, border shootings by Indian forces, and a significant trade deficit.

Pakistan seeks renewed engagement

Pakistan has signaled interest in restoring closer ties following what Salman Bashir, former Pakistani foreign secretary and diplomat, described as the Awami League's "long dalliance" with India. Bashir said the election "marks the end of Awami League's long dalliance" with India and "a reopening of close relations" with Pakistan. He added, "Bangladesh does not have to balance its relations with India and Pakistan" and said the shift "means a reversal of India's dominant posture in the region."

Even before the election, an interim administration in Dhaka resumed direct flights and eased visa procedures as part of confidence-building measures. Future cooperation could extend to defence, with discussions under way regarding the potential sale of Pakistan-manufactured JF-17 fighter jets to Bangladesh. Shahab Enam Khan, executive director at the Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs, said the BNP will likely pursue a "more transactional approach" toward both Islamabad and Delhi and must ground its diplomacy in "pragmatism rather than rhetoric."

China signals continuity and expansion

China, which maintained strong ties with the Hasina government through the Belt and Road Initiative, has indicated its readiness to "write new chapters" with the BNP administration, according to the Chinese Embassy.

The BNP is expected to deepen economic and infrastructure cooperation with Beijing. Delwar Hossain said the party will "further deepen its relations with China, hearkening back to the past experience of friendly ties." Analysts note that Dhaka will need to manage "growing American opposition" to China's expanding regional footprint.

Asif Bin Ali added that Bangladesh should keep the "China file focused on economics rather than security symbolism" to avoid being dragged into great power rivalries. Saleh Shahriar, professor at North South University, cautioned that the incoming government faces a "great power competition in the Bay of Bengal region."

"Bangladesh First"

The BNP's manifesto outlines a "Bangladesh First" policy that prioritizes sovereignty, security, and public welfare in foreign policy decisions. Experts say Dhaka is likely to pursue incremental adjustments rather than abrupt shifts.

Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group said South Asia is "no longer a region that can be counted as the 'back yard of one or the other'" and noted that "there are likely to be small, incremental shifts towards regional balancing between India and China," rather than abrupt changes.

Analysts say the new government is expected to balance relations with India and China while normalizing ties with Islamabad and seeking a more active partnership with the United States. The goal is to ensure Bangladesh is no longer viewed as the "back yard" of any single regional power. Tarique Rahman's BNP, Saleh Shahriar added, is "different from Khaleda Zia's BNP," signaling a new approach to governance and foreign engagement.