GDP grows 4.86% in Jan-Mar of FY25

Bangladesh's economy grew by 4.86% in the third quarter (January–March) of the 2024–25 fiscal year at constant prices, up from 4.62% during the same period last year, according to provisional estimates released today by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The latest data shows a rebound from the first and second quarters, when GDP growth stood at 1.96% and 4.48% respectively. In comparison, FY24 recorded growth of 5.87% and 4.47% during those quarters.

The combined GDP growth for the first nine months of the just concluded fiscal year now stands at 3.81%, slightly lower than the same period a year earlier.

In nominal terms, the size of Bangladesh's economy reached Tk14.20 lakh crore in the third quarter, up from Tk12.67 lakh crore during the same period last year.

According to BBS, growth in Q3 was driven largely by the industrial and services sectors, while agriculture saw a decline in year-on-year expansion.

Agriculture grew by 2.42% in the January–March quarter, compared to 4.02% in the same quarter of FY24. In the first and second quarters of FY25, the sector posted 0.76% and 1.25% growth, respectively, slightly higher than the previous year's figures of 0.62% and 4.09%.

Industry, on the other hand, posted a strong 6.91% growth in Q3, significantly up from 4.55% a year ago. This follows growth of 2.44% and 7.10% in the first and second quarters of FY25, compared to 7.78% and 1.04% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.

Services expanded by 5.88% in Q3, a notable improvement from 4.31% in the same period of FY24. The first two quarters of the current fiscal year saw slower growth at 2.41% and 3.78%, while in FY24, those quarters posted 5.52% and 7.10% growth, respectively.

Commenting on the figures, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said agriculture performed well in terms of production, particularly with Aman paddy. 

"However, since last year's growth was already high, the year-on-year increase this year appears smaller," he added.

The economist said improved export earnings caused the industrial sector's robust performance. "Exports from January to March this year outperformed the same period in the previous year. We benefited from advance buying driven by tariff concerns in the US under the Trump administration," he noted.

Regarding the services sector, Zahid Hussain observed that despite political unrest during January–March this year, which typically affects services the most, the sector still grew. 

He explained that industrial and agricultural activity supported services growth indirectly – through increased transport, education, and other linked sectors.

"Service sector growth is often an outcome of momentum in agriculture and industry. When industrial output rises, transport demand increases. Likewise, education and related services performed better than last year," he said.