Bangladesh’s GDP grows 3.35% in Q4 of FY25, industry shows strongest rebound

Bangladesh's economy grew by 3.35% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal 2024-25 at constant prices, up from 2.14% in the same period of FY24, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) today (9 October).

The growth in the first three quarters of FY25 was 1.96%, 4.48%, and 4.86%, compared to 5.87%, 4.47%, and 4.62%, respectively, in FY24. Overall, GDP growth for FY25 at constant prices, based on the combined four quarters, stands at 3.69%.

The industrial sector saw stronger performance, growing 4.10% in Q4 FY25 compared to 1.08% in Q4 of FY24. The agriculture sector expanded by 3.01% in the fourth quarter of FY25, down from 4.11% in Q4 FY24. Meanwhile, the services sector grew 2.96% in Q4 FY25, down from 3.61% in Q4 FY24.

The provisional estimate puts the GDP size at current prices for the fourth quarter of FY25 at Tk14.4 lakh crore, compared to Tk13.2 lakh crore in the same quarter of FY24.

The World Bank, in its latest Bangladesh Development Update released yesterday, said Bangladesh's economy rebounded in the second half of FY25 after disruptions earlier in the year, driven by strong exports, remittances, and forex reserves. The report projects GDP growth to increase to 4.8% in FY26 and 6.3% in FY27.

Back in April, the World Bank downgraded its outlook for Bangladesh, predicting economic growth of just 3.3% for FY25, down from the January forecast of 4.1%, amid political uncertainty and persistent financial challenges.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that the last fiscal year was "catastrophic" for the economy due to political instability, violence, agitation, and uncertainty.

'A catastrophic year for the economy'

Zahid Hussain said the overall data suggest the full-year growth rate is lower than that of recent years.

"The annual growth rate was initially projected at 3.97%, but based on the new data, it now seems unlikely to reach that level," he said, adding that this would mark the lowest post-Covid growth, though still marginally better than during the Covid-hit year of 2020.

"Political instability, violence, agitation, and uncertainty directly hit economic activity. Just as Covid brought health risks and mobility restrictions, this year's violence and insecurity on the streets severely disrupted business, trade, transport, and services," he said. 

He noted that the transport, wholesale, and retail trade sectors suffered the most due to persistent political turmoil.