Can silent votes of banned Awami League swing key constituencies?

As Bangladesh heads to the polls today, analysts say the balance could tilt based on supporters of the banned Awami League.

Though sidelined, the party's scattered voter base still carries weight in tight constituencies, with BNP and the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance pulling out all the stops to win over these swing votes.

Since Sheikh Hasina's ouster on 5 August 2024, many Awami League leaders and grassroots activists have faced legal cases.

Despite boycott calls, some supporters are expected to turn out, often backing candidates who helped them regain normalcy after months of displacement.

About 30 historically Awami League-dominated constituencies could see major shake-ups.

Constitutional expert Ahsanul Karim said, "Awami League has a significant number of supporters, and they will have a major impact on government formation. Whichever party manages to attract more of these swing votes will have the advantage." 

Analyst Mohiuddin Ahmed added, "Even though the Awami League has been banned, banning a party cannot stop a political doctrine. That doctrine endures, and a substantial voter base remains."

While the exact support level is unclear, analysts estimate Awami League votes at 20–30%. Supreme Court lawyer Shahdin Malik noted they could be decisive in several constituencies, voting "No" in the referendum while also influencing parliamentary outcomes.

Field observations

Jamaat is targeting six of Chattogram's 16 constituencies with long-planned strategies, holding strong in two urban and four rural seats.

Sources say BNP's late chairperson Khaleda Zia used to contest Feni's Phulgazi and Chhagalnaiya, where Jamaat has little chance.

Party voters from these areas are being shifted to Chattogram-1 (Mirsharai) and Chattogram-11, where Jamaat is stronger. Reports suggest a senior Awami League leader is aiding Jamaat's candidate in Chattogram-11.

In Khulna, BNP and the Jamaat-led alliance are courting Awami League voters.

Familiar Awami League faces have campaigned for the opposition, many compelled to cooperate to avoid legal or security hardships, reassured that their livelihoods will normalise if the patron party gains power.

In Rajshahi, Awami League supporters show a subdued but voting-ready mood.

Their base in Rajshahi-1 could shape victory margins, while BNP edges in Rajshahi-2, 5, and 6, and Jamaat leads in Rajshahi-4. Rajshahi-3 is a close contest.

In Barishal, law-and-order concerns may affect minority turnout, but the silent Awami League vote could tip Barishal-1 and 5, traditional strongholds.

In Sunamganj-2 (Dirai and Shalla), late Awami League leader Suranjit Sengupta, elected seven times, still influences local politics.

On his ninth death anniversary, BNP's Md. Nasir Chowdhury and Jamaat's Shishir Monir paid tribute on Facebook, signalling respect and acknowledging his voter base.

In Barishal, concerns over law and order have emerged in constituencies traditionally influenced by the Awami League.

Some fear being caught up in mob-related incidents.

The minority community's decision to turn out at polling stations will depend on the morning security situation.

Meanwhile, the Awami League's silent vote bloc could lean toward a 'no' vote. Barishal-1 and Barishal-5, known as Awami League strongholds, may prove decisive in the election.

Across Madaripur, Shariatpur, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Bagerhat, Thakurgaon, Jamalpur, and Mymensingh, candidates are using multiple strategies to woo Awami League voters, including outreach to former leaders, grave visits, and assurances of legal and security protection. These tactics have become central to campaign discussions nationwide.