India's RBI supports growth with liquidity boost but holds rates amid high inflation

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Friday but cut the cash reserve ratio that banks are required to hold for the first time in over four years, effectively easing monetary conditions as economic growth slows.

India's GDP growth rate fell unexpectedly to 5.4% in the July-September quarter, its slowest pace in seven quarters, while inflation is quickening again and the rupee has fallen to record lows, limiting the RBI's room to manoeuvre heading into what looks to be a globally turbulent 2025.

To balance the conflicting pressures on the economy, the central bank eased liquidity conditions, while announcing steps to draw more foreign currency deposits, but kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged for now.

The cash reserve ratio (CRR) was cut by 50 basis points to 4%, effective in two tranches on Dec. 14 and Dec. 28. The cut was the first since March 2020.

The move will infuse 1.16 trillion rupees ($13.72 billion) into the banking system.

The benchmark repo rate, however, was left unchanged at 6.50% for an eleventh straight policy meeting, with officials flagging persistent price pressures.

Four of six members of the monetary policy committee voted to keep rates unchanged. The committee voted unanimously to keep its policy stance at "neutral".

Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh - two of three external members of the panel - voted for a 25 basis point (bps) cut.

The three central bank officials on the committee, including RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, whose current tenure as central bank governor ends on Dec. 10, voted to keep rates steady.

Price stability is important to people because it impacts their purchasing power, said Das, adding that ensuring "durable" price stability is critical to ensuring high growth in the economy.

But, he added policy support may be needed if the growth slowdown "lingers".

Currently, the central bank sees economic growth as resilient, Das said, not withstanding the recent diverging data on growth and inflation.

"In the life of a central bank, there is no room for knee-jerk reaction," said Das, adding more "credible evidence" is needed on the outlook for inflation.

"Our effort has been to remain in line with the curve, never fall behind the curve and I think we are following that trend," he said.

"The CRR cut to augment liquidity is likely to impact (bring down) the market interest rate," said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research.

Overnight interbank rates have been trending above the policy repo rate of 6.5% as liquidity has tightened.

The growth outlook has weakened but inflation is the biggest risk for any economy, said Pant, adding that a rate cut in February is still not certain and will depend on data.

While many economists expect a cut in interest rates in February, Capital Economics said it may get pushed back to April as bringing down inflation remains a priority, even though the CRR cut reflects increased concerns about growth.

India's benchmark 10-year bond yield was up 4 basis points to 6.7214% after the announcement, while the rupee was little changed at 84.67 per dollar from 84.66. The benchmark equity indexes were marginally higher.

LOWER GROWTH, HIGHER INFLATION
The central bank also raised its inflation forecast for the year and cut its economic growth forecast.

It lowered its growth forecast for the year ending March 2025 to 6.6%, from its earlier forecast of 7.2%, following the weaker-than-expected print for the second quarter.

Das said the deceleration in economic growth had bottomed out in the July-September quarter and activity has picked up in subsequent months, led by festival spending and strong agricultural output following a good monsoon.

Central bank deputy governor Michael Patra said the underlying reason for the slowdown in growth is inflation, which has eroded purchasing power of urban consumers.

The central bank raised its average retail inflation forecast for the current financial year to 4.8% from 4.5% previously.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.21% in October, breaching the central bank's tolerance band for the first time in more than a year.

Food inflation pressures are likely to linger in the October-December quarter, easing only early next year as the impact of a good monsoon is seen on agricultural output, Das said.

BOOSTING THE RUPEE
To fight pressure on the Indian rupee, which has fallen to all-time lows amid a stronger dollar and outflows from the equity market in October and November, the central bank said banks could offer higher interest rates on some foreign currency FCNR-B deposits.

FCNR-B allows non-resident Indians to hold term deposits in India in foreign currencies.