Jatiyo Party faces collapse in 13th national polls, signaling existential crisis

Rangpur, long regarded as a political stronghold of the Jatiyo Party and closely tied to its founder Hussain Muhammad Ershad, witnessed a historic collapse in the latest general election. 

For decades, the region symbolised the firm presence of the party's plough emblem in national politics. That dominance collapsed in the latest general election, where the party failed to win a single seat nationwide despite fielding 196 candidates — a dramatic reversal from the 11 seats it secured in the 7 January 2024 election after contesting 265 constituencies.

The defeat, particularly in its traditional base, has intensified debate over the party's political existence.

In the 12 February election, party chairman GM Quader secured third position in the Rangpur-3 constituency with 43,790 votes. He had won the same seat in the 2024 election and became the leader of the opposition.

Across Rangpur constituencies, candidates backed by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies emerged victorious, reflecting what analysts describe as sustained grassroots organisation, strategic candidate selection, and disciplined polling-day mobilisation.

Leadership woes, organisational rift undermine campaign

Analysts say several factors contributed to Jatiyo Party's defeat. First, long-standing voter doubts over leadership credibility and political positioning had an impact. The party's role in parliament and its dual strategy of aligning with both government and opposition were not clear to many voters.

Second, organisational weaknesses played a significant role. Internal conflicts, dissatisfaction over nominations, and a widening gap between grassroots activists and central leadership weakened campaign operations. Limited public outreach ahead of polling further left the party trailing rivals.

Thirdly, observers also point to erosion in the party's traditional vote bank. The emotional appeal once centred on Ershad has faded, while younger voters increasingly favour parties offering clearer political positioning and development narratives.

However, Jatiyo Party secretary general Shamim Haider Patwary alleged the election outcome was shaped by deliberate "engineering" aimed at sidelining the Jatiyo Party. 

In a statement, he claimed promising candidates were pushed into third place through manipulation to deny parliamentary representation, describing the process as politically motivated retaliation.

Patwary further alleged that arson attacks on party offices before the election disrupted organisational activities and intimidated activists, forcing the party into a late campaign start while competitors mobilised early. 

He said administrative and political influence ultimately prevented the party from achieving expected results.

Offering an explanation, Badiul Alam Majumdar, secretary of Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik (Shujan), said prolonged leadership disputes and factionalism fractured the party's structure, confusing supporters and eroding grassroots confidence.

He added that political developments following the events of 5 August damaged the party's public image, pushing neutral voters away and unsettling long-time backers.

Collapse of a party once dominant 

In Rangpur-3, Mahbubar Rahman Belal won the Rangpur-3 constituency with 175,827 votes. BNP's Shamsuzzaman Samu received 84,578 votes.

In the Rangpur-4 constituency, NCP's Akhtar Hossain won with the Shapla Koli symbol, securing 149,966 votes. BNP's Emdadul Haque Bhorosha received 140,564 votes, making it one of the closest contests in the region. In this seat, Jatiyo Party's Abu Naser Shah Mohammad Mahbubar Rahman got 33,664 votes.

In the Rangpur-5 constituency, Jamaat's Golam Rabbani was elected with 176,411 votes. BNP candidate Golam Rabbani received 115,116 votes. In the same seat, Jatiyo Party candidate SM Fakhr-uz-Zaman secured 16,490 votes.

In the Rangpur-6 constituency, Nurul Amin won with 120,128 votes. His nearest rival, BNP's Saiful Islam, received 117,703 votes, with a relatively narrow margin. In this seat, Jatiyo Party's Md Nur Alam Mia got 1,287 votes.

Rise of rivals signals political realignment 

The results illustrate the scale of the shift of voters. Taken together, the outcome signals a profound political realignment in Rangpur — once the symbolic heartland of the Jatiyo Party — and raises pressing questions about whether the party can rebuild organisational cohesion, restore voter trust, and redefine its political identity in a rapidly shifting electoral landscape.