A verdict of the hour
While Bangladesh remains a deeply religious society, voters signaled that they are unwilling to embrace overt theological governance
Thursday's high-stakes contest delivered a clear and emphatic verdict. At a time of deep economic strain, political uncertainty and fraying law and order, voters opted for change. The result reflects a public desperate for stability, security and economic recovery.
For Bangladesh's ailing economy, the stakes were immense. Over the past eighteen months, prolonged political turmoil, sporadic mob violence and deteriorating law and order have taken a heavy toll on business confidence, investment flows and growth prospects. As results began to emerge on Thursday night, the business community, like much of the country, breathed a cautious sigh of relief, hoping that a government led by Tarique Rahman would move swiftly to restore order and rebuild investor confidence.
The return of electoral agency
The decisive verdict proves once again the undisputed historic facts: the people of Bangladesh never make a mistake when it comes to voting. The verdict also marks the return of electoral agency to voters after years of constrained political choice. Since 2014, three consecutive elections under Sheikh Hasina have been widely criticised for lacking competitiveness. Following the 2024 July uprising that led to her fall, voters were presented with a genuinely competitive contest for the first time in over a decade, and they responded decisively.
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History suggests that when given credible choices, Bangladeshi voters exercise judgment with clarity. The four elections held under non-partisan caretaker administrations – in 1991, June 1996, 2001 and 2008 – produced peaceful transfers of power and reflected the electorate's capacity to recalibrate politics when necessary. Thursday's result appears to fit that pattern.
Sheikh Hasina deprived them of their decision-making power. She clung to power by manipulating three consecutive elections since 2014. But Bangladeshis started applying their mind as soon as they were given the opportunity to exercise their rights.
Moderation over theological politics
The campaign ultimately crystallised into a contest between the BNP, led by Tarique Rahman, and Jamaat-e-Islami, headed by Ameer Shafiqur Rahman.
The electorate sent a nuanced message. While Bangladesh remains a deeply religious society, voters signalled that they are unwilling to embrace overt theological governance. The BNP successfully projected itself as a pluralistic and comparatively moderate force, pledging inclusive governance and economic revival.
Jamaat-e-Islami, despite achieving its strongest electoral performance to date, winning 68 seats and over 32% of votes, according to constituency-level analysis, fell short of power. Its historic association with the events of 1971 and its conservative stance on women's empowerment appear to have limited its appeal among broader segments of the electorate.
Yet the results also indicate a significant consolidation of far-right voters. Jamaat now emerges as the principal opposition force, a development that will reshape parliamentary dynamics.
Women voters and the politics of aspiration
Women constituted more than half of the electorate, and their influence was visible in the outcome. Campaign rhetoric perceived as dismissive of women's leadership and participation in public life appears to have backfired. Many voters, men and women alike, rejected narratives that framed female participation in politics and the workforce as moral decline. The male voters were also repulsed by such an arcane stance of a political party jockeying to lead the country.
The BNP capitalised on this sentiment. The visible participation of Tarique Rahman's daughter in the campaign reinforced the party's attempt to project a woman-friendly, forward-looking image aligned with global aspirations of gender inclusion.
More broadly, the BNP worked to rebrand itself. Tarique and his campaign team adopted a youthful, modern aesthetic and messaging focused on moving the country "forward, not backward". Amid public anxiety over "mobocracy" and lawlessness, the party emphasised stability, institutional order and tolerance, themes that resonated strongly.
Although Jamaat lost the race, results still show a significant rise in far-right voters. With its best ever results Jamaat is set to become the main opposition in parliament.
Now one can only hope the opposing political ideas will play a constructive role in parliament to put democracy back on a firm footing.
The victor and the vanquished
The election was intensely personalised: Tarique Rahman versus Shafiqur Rahman. Both entered parliament for the first time. One is poised to lead the government; the other to lead the opposition.
Tarique's return to Bangladesh after 17 years in London exile energised his party's rank and file. Following the death of his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, he assumed full stewardship of the BNP and undertook an extensive nationwide campaign. The landslide victory cements his authority within the party. The greater test now lies ahead: whether he can transition from political victor to statesman.
The suspension of the activities of the AL and its associates by the interim government that disqualified the AL from the election created a vacuum for Jamaat to chase the big dream. The dream remains unfulfilled this time around. Its best achievement was in the 1991 election when the party bagged 18 seats and 12.13% of the total vote cast, according to a TBS analysis of the results of 284 constituencies.
Shifts in the political landscape
The election has also redrawn the broader political map.
The National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of the youth-driven July uprising, entered the race with ambitions of a "new political settlement". Its tactical alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, however, diluted its reformist credentials. Contesting 30 seats, it secured only six and less than 3% of votes, falling short of becoming a credible third force. The NCP that chased the big dream to go to power with Jamaat failed to become third in the race as independent candidates won one seat more than the NCP.
Meanwhile, the once pivotal Jatiya Party suffered near-elimination. Historically the third-largest force in elections since 1991, it failed to secure a single seat even in its Rangpur stronghold. Its long association with the Awami League during Sheikh Hasina's tenure, including its role as parliamentary opposition after the disputed 2014 election, appears to have eroded its credibility. Voters delivered a harsh verdict.
The pitfall of overwhelming power
The BNP's two-thirds majority introduces both opportunity and risk. Bangladesh's political history offers a cautionary lesson: governments formed with overwhelming parliamentary dominance, notably in 2001 and 2008, later faced backlash amid accusations of arrogance, centralisation of power and suppression of opposition voices.
Since 1991, the first two governments formed by the BNP and the Awami League with single majority, have not done any major blunder. But the BNP and the AL after forming the government with two-third majority in parliament respectively in 2001 and 2008 faced debacle later due to their acting on majoritarian arrogance and plunging the country into political crises.
Strong mandates can facilitate reform, but they can also weaken institutional checks and balances if not exercised with restraint. Early signals from the new administration in its handling of dissent, parliamentary procedure and governance reform will be closely scrutinised.
If proposals for an upper house elected through proportional representation materialise, the BNP's nearly 50% national vote share could translate into dominance there as well, further concentrating power.
A democratic reset or a new phase of polarisation?
This election represents a democratic reset after years of constrained competition. It has restored competitive politics and produced a decisive mandate. It has also entrenched a powerful opposition rooted in conservative politics.
Whether this moment strengthens democratic institutions or ushers in a new cycle of majoritarian dominance will depend not on the scale of victory, but on how power is exercised. The electorate has delivered its verdict with clarity. The responsibility now shifts to those entrusted with governing.
