Mexico's Sheinbaum wins early praise for handling Trump on tariffs

Summary:

• Mexican president has taken cautious, measured approach, analysts say
• Sheinbaum promised to keep a "cool head" in tariff talks
• Poll showed leader's approval grew to 77% in January

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday appeared to pass her biggest test yet on the world stage by winning breathing room from US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, which risked ramming a wrecking ball through Mexico's economy.

Some politicians and analysts commended the Mexican leader's measured public tone and apparent ability to blunt Trump's charge after she reached an agreement with the US president to pause tariffs for a month as Mexico sends 10,000 troops to the border to stop the flow of drugs and migrants.

"President Sheinbaum played it well. Masterfully," Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China and member of an opposition party, said on social media, adding that other world leaders "will see in Sheinbaum how to do it well."

"Sheinbaum has taken a very cautious and strategic approach to the Trump administration," said Lila Abed, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

Abed pointed to Mexico's ramped up fentanyl seizures in recent months, including its largest bust ever in December, as aiding Sheinbaum's negotiation efforts.

"She's been taking actions within her government to send a clear signal to the United States that it understands that fentanyl and organized crime are a top priority for the Trump administration," said Abed.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau - who unlike Sheinbaum had unveiled a list of targeted tariffs in retaliation for Trump's measures - also secured a 30-day pause on US tariffs on Monday afternoon.

Abed called Monday's pause a "temporary win" for Sheinbaum, which will be "dependent on her ability to produce immediate results on migration and on security."

The 25% tariffs, which Trump first threatened in November to demand Mexico and Canada stem the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the US, were among the first foreign policy obstacles for Sheinbaum, who took office in October as Mexico's first woman president and promised to keep a "cool head" during tariff talks.

"Sheinbaum, upon the announcement of the tariffs, kept a very measured tone," Mexican political scientist Denise Dresser said on Monday in a live event on X held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.

"We were bracing for impact," Dresser said, noting Mexico is not out of the woods yet and stands to be the "main loser" from tariffs.

Sheinbaum's already broad popularity in Mexico has not suffered from her showdown with Trump. Her approval has ticked up three percentage points from November to January to reach 77% approval, according to pollster Buendia & Marquez.

Her ability to rally to the defense of the North American free trade pact, which she once campaigned against as a student activist, also may have helped calm fears that she would fail to handle Trump as well as her mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. He formed an unlikely bond with the US leader during his term.

On Saturday, Sheinbaum said her government would respond with retaliatory tariffs to Trump's order for sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, without providing details.

For Sheinbaum's part, she "kept her options open" which "seems to have played out beneficially for her," said Dresser, a frequent critic of Mexico's ruling Morena party.

The president's messaging around Mexican sovereignty and economic resilience in the face of the tariff threats has connected both with her electoral base but also with the private sector and some in the opposition, said Abed.

"She has been successful in her negotiation strategy. Her being cautious but at the same time strategic and proactive, in terms of trying to derail tariffs, is something that has been really welcome within Mexico," Abed said.