Graduate glut: Bangladesh’s demographic dividend is slipping away

Bangladesh is on the verge of a reckoning. For decades, education was seen as the surest route to dignity, upward mobility, and economic security. 

In an agrarian society, families made significant investments in schooling because it was expected to lead to employment and stability. That understanding has steadily eroded, and its consequences are now being felt across the country, particularly in rural areas.

Over the past twenty years, Bangladesh has expanded its education system at an unprecedented pace. Colleges and universities have proliferated, producing a vast number of graduates. 

However, this expansion has not been matched by the creation of jobs or the development of relevant skills. As a result, Bangladesh now finds itself trapped in a paradox.

In much of the country, post-secondary education has become a matter of certification rather than competency. 

Most students are unable to relocate to major cities and therefore enrol in local colleges or affiliated university programmes. Teaching quality varies widely, and curricula often have only a weak connection to industry needs.

Bangladesh is currently facing unemployment of approximately 2.6 million people. The situation is even more severe among graduates: nearly 885,000 degree-holders are unemployed. 

Graduate unemployment stands at around 13.5%—almost three times the national average. Instead of mitigating risk, higher education has increasingly become associated with joblessness.

There are more than 110,000 primary and secondary schools in Bangladesh. At the tertiary level, the country has over 150 universities and 1,688 degree colleges. 

The rapid expansion of institutions has fostered the belief that a degree guarantees a better life. This promise, however, has proven to be a misnomer—indeed, an illusion.

Technical and vocational education was meant to provide an alternative pathway, yet it has failed to inspire confidence. Bangladesh has approximately 7,800 technical and vocational institutions, but enrolment remains low and outcomes are poor. 

Facilities are outdated, trainers often lack adequate preparation, and curricula are not aligned with modern technologies. As a result, vocational education has failed to function as the strong bridge to employment it was intended to be.

These factors have produced a graduate glut—an oversupply of degree-holders whose skills do not match available opportunities. 

Families that invested heavily in education are now compelled to send their children abroad in search of work. Informal brokers exploit this desperation, charging exorbitant fees to arrange overseas employment. Families sell land, jewellery, and lifetime savings to finance these journeys.

Bangladesh is currently passing through a critical demographic phase. Around 67% of the population is of working age, and the dependency ratio has fallen to about 52 dependents per 100 working-age people, compared with nearly 90 in the early 1980s. 

Each year, more than two million people enter the working-age population. Demographers project that this favourable age structure will peak between 2025 and 2035. 

This window is temporary and irreversible. A demographic dividend is not automatic; it materialises only when young people are healthy, skilled, and productively employed. Bangladesh is falling short. Labour productivity remains low compared to successful Asian economies.

South Korea aligned education closely with industrial needs. Singapore made sustained investments in vocational excellence tied directly to industry. 

China absorbed millions of young workers into productive sectors before expanding higher education. Their success was not driven by the sheer number of graduates but by the relevance of their skills.

These experiences offer important lessons for Bangladesh. First, education policy must be evaluated by employability rather than enrolment. Colleges should be assessed on how well their graduates perform in the labour market, and government support should be aligned accordingly.

Second, the unchecked expansion of low-quality degree programmes must be halted and reassessed. It is preferable to produce fewer competent graduates than large numbers who are unable to apply their knowledge. 

Bangladesh remains entangled in this dilemma.

Third, underperforming universities and colleges should be merged, restructured, or reorganised. Weak institutions must not be allowed to erode public trust or waste national resources.

Fourth, technical and vocational education must deliver real, marketable skills—not merely new titles or certificates. 

Selected institutions should be modernised with state-of-the-art laboratories, industry-qualified trainers, and competency-based curricula, prioritising sectors such as manufacturing, construction, logistics, information and communication technology, and agro-processing.

Most importantly, education planning must be integrated with industrial and investment policy. Exporters and industries should be directly involved in training and apprenticeship programmes. 

The overseas employment framework must also be reformed, shifting away from desperation-driven migration towards skill-based mobility, supported by proper certification and stricter regulation of intermediaries.

Finally, career guidance should begin at the secondary school level, enabling young people and their parents to make informed decisions based on labour market realities rather than social pressure.

Education must empower, not deceive. It should prepare young people to lead productive lives, not push families into debt and despair. 

The future of Bangladesh depends not on producing more graduates, but on developing competent, adaptable, and employable citizens.

Sketch: TBS

Maj Gen (Retd) Md Nazrul Islam is a former executive chairman of BEPZA, a retired Major General of the Bangladesh Army, and a PhD researcher on technology, workforce transformation, and industrial competitiveness.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.