Semifinal scenario: How Afghanistan's win keeps Bangladesh mathematically alive in T20 World Cup

There was a feeling of deja vu for Afghanistan in Kingstown on Sunday, with Glenn Maxwell single-handedly leading Australia's chase in the T20 World Cup Super Eight tie. Over six months back, it was the very same Aussie batter that had denied Afghanistan a historic win in the 2023 ODI World Cup with a record-scripting double-century. 

But in a moment of magic from Noor Ahmad, courtesy of Gulbadin Naib, Afghanistan overcame the danger and it all came crumbling down for Australia. Naib picked up four wickets and took a magnificent catch to get rid of Ashton Agar as the 2021 champions were folded for just 127 runs, with Afghanistan securing a stunning 21-run win.

This was Australia's first loss against Afghanistan in six international matches, ending their streak of eight wins in T20 World Cups. Afghanistan's win also derailed India's chances of making the semifinal in the 2024 T20 World Cup and left the Aussies in a precarious spot in Group 1 of Super Eight.

India stand at the top of the table with two wins from two games. They also have a superior net run rate (NRR) of +2.425. Australia, despite their defeat against Afghanistan, stand second in the table with a win from two games. Afghanistan, too, have scripted a similar run so far, but stand third owing to an inferior NRR compared to the Aussies. Bangladesh remain at the bottom of the table with two losses in two matches.

India: Given their superior NRR, India are all but certain to make the T20 World Cup semifinal for the second time in a row. While even a no result could see India go through to the penultimate round of the tournament, a loss against Australia in Gros Islet on Monday too is unlikely to affect their chances unless the Mitchell Marsh-led side secured a mighty win to counter the NRR factor and Afghanistan topple the number as well during their win against Bangladesh. Mathematically speaking, India can only miss out on a semifinal spot if Australia and Afghanistan win their final matches by a margin of more than 120 runs.

Australia and Afghanistan: The Aussies have found themselves in a must-win game against India on Monday after the loss against Afghanistan. To guarantee their position in the semifinals, Australia have to secure a convincing win against India and then expect Afghanistan to lose against Bangladesh. Given that Rashid Khan's men will be in action in the final Group 1 match of Super Eight, they will have the advantage to counter the Aussies on the NRR factor. While a loss for the Aussies and a win for them could secure them a maiden semifinal qualification, a win for the former champions could see them battling for NRR.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh, among all the teams, are in the weakest position but they still have an outside chance of making the semifinal. If Bangladesh win against Afghanistan by 31 runs and Australia lose to India by 55 runs, Bangladesh will be the second team in terms of NRR and qualify for the semis.