Can New Zealand be India's knockout nemesis again?

It's 2019 all over again for India and New Zealand. Just like the previous ICC ODI event, India finished the group stage of the ongoing World Cup as table-toppers and will clash with fourth-placed New Zealand in the first semi-final at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. 

The hosts have been by far the most dominant side in the tournament with nine out of nine convincing victories and it's safe to say that the India juggernaut will need some stopping.

The table, though, doesn't suggest how well Kane Williamson's side has played in the tournament. They may have finished with just five wins out of nine matches but it could have easily been seven. They narrowly fell short against Australia in a high-scoring thriller and lost to Pakistan in DLS method even after scoring 401 batting first.

It's one versus four, but India will be wary of the Black Caps, having lost a host of knockout matches to them in the past. 

Chris Cairns led New Zealand to victory in the thrilling 2000 Champions Trophy final against India in Nairobi. Martin Guptill's pinpoint throw marked the end of MS Dhoni's illustrious international career and also India's 2019 World Cup hopes. Kyle Jamieson fired the Black Caps to a superb win in the 2021 World Test Championship final.

India recently ended a 20-year drought after defeating New Zealand in the ongoing World Cup thanks to Virat Kohli's masterful 95. Kohli has been the 2023 World Cup's leading run-getter with 594 runs at 99, but his form in the last three World Cup semi-finals might encourage the opponents. 

He got out on single digit in the 2011, 2015 and 2019 semi-finals and the former India captain will be keen to make amends and score his 50th ODI hundred to go past his idol Tendulkar's record in the latter's home ground.

The Wankhede Stadium is one of the three grounds in the tournament where the mean batting average is 35+ and scoring rate is 6.5+ runs per over. And it's been a bat-first ground since three out of four matches here have been won by teams batting first and the anomaly was Australia's thrilling win over Afghanistan powered by Glenn Maxwell heroics. 

It's easily the fastest-scoring ground while batting first (run rate - 7.14) and choosing to bat first after winning the toss is a no-brainer, more so because of the swing and seam under lights. Recent history suggests that the fast bowlers enjoy bowling under lights with the new ball here.

Naveen-ul-Haq and Azmatullah Omarzai displayed a swing and seam bowling masterclass against Australia before the Maxwell masterclass. Both the semi-finalists have bowlers to exploit the conditions. 

Either they bat or bowl first, New Zealand will have to limit Rohit Sharma's stroke-play inside the first ten overs. He has scored 61% of his runs inside the powerplay at a staggering average of 102 and strike-rate of 129.5 in the competition. India head coach Rahul Dravid said Rohit's flying starts is "making the job" easier for the likes of Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer and KL Rahul.

There's a match-up that could worry India. Rohit averages 26.75 and strikes at 69 and has got out to Trent Boult four times in ODIs. India have had their issues against left-arm pace and Boult could be a handful against them.

Williamson will remain the fulcrum of the New Zealand batting unit, but fortunately for them, they are not heavily reliant on him anymore. Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell have emerged as two batting giants and India, the best bowling side in the tournament, will definitely be challenged by them.

New Zealand are not known to be a big-hitting side, but their run-rate of 6.53 in the tournament has been higher than anyone else. 

New Zealand won't be too unhappy having India as opponents. The hosts will have to face the pressure of expectations at home. Their record in the knockouts in the last few ICC events has not been great either. On the contrary, the Black Caps made the final of the last two World Cups and will look to do the same again at the Wankhede on Wednesday.