Jatiya Party drama again as parliamentary polls near?

With around one year to go before the next general election in the country, the drama involving Jatiya Party has already started to unfold in keeping with the last five national elections' instances, political analysts believe.

During the national elections in 1996, 2001, 2008, 2014, and 2018, the Jatiya Party "drama" had its founder and then chairman late HM Ershad in the central role, but this time it's about the incumbent chairman of the party GM Quader.

Political analyst Dr Badiul Alam Majumdar said since Ershad was facing several cases, he used to decide which political alliance his party would join or support before a general election based on their calculations of which party might come to power.

Even though Jatiya Party took part in the 1991, 1996, and 2001 general elections independently, it supported the Awami League in forming the government in 1996. Therefore, Ershad and his party had to face quite a few problems after the BNP-led Four-Party Alliance came to power in 2001.

Jatiya Party joined the AL-led Grand Alliance before the 2008 elections and eventually joined the cabinet led by AL President and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after winning the elections.

Badiul Alam told The Business Standard that the cases filed over alleged corruption in the purchase of MiG-29 aircraft and radar were a big factor for Ershad in the 2008, 2014, and 2018 elections, because he might be given harsh penalties in these cases. Keeping that in mind, Ershad joined the Awami League-led Grand Alliance.

Badiul Alam thinks that dividing Jatiya Party into two camps and preventing the chairman of the party from fulfilling his duties by filing lawsuits seem to be a new tactic by the Awami League to keep Jatiya Party in check.

"Various recent statements of JaPa Chairman GM Quader give an indication that the party may not be with the Awami League in the next national elections. Again, the general secretary of the party Mujibul Haque Chunnu has spoken clearly about vote rigging and stuffing of ballot boxes on nights that allegedly took place in the last two national elections.

"Perhaps, that is why he [the JaPa chairman] is being put under pressure in many ways," Badiul said.

This is the first time in the history of Bangladesh that a political party leader has been prevented from performing his duties by a court order, added the political analyst.

After HM Ershad's death in 2019, his younger brother GM Quader took over as the chairman of the party.

But the party allegedly got divided into two groups under Quader and Ershad's wife Rowshan Ershad, and various activities of the two factions are now at the height of political discussion.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday night, one group suddenly announced Rowshan – key patron of the party and the leader of the opposition in the parliament – as the acting chairman of the JaPa, but the announcement was suspended one and a half hours later.

According to sources, earlier on Tuesday, Rowshan Ershad and GM Quader went to meet Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at her office to resolve the ongoing disputes within the Jatiya Party, it is not yet known what the outcome of the meeting is.

JaPa Co-Chairman Kazi Firoz Rashid MP, told TBS, "During the times of Ershad, the Jatiya Party joined political alliances before or after the election due to its political policy. The party did not join any alliance in view of any pressure, and personal or party interests."

"But Awami League's behaviour with Jatiya Party after the 2018 elections was totally unexpected," said Firoz Rashid, adding, "Time will tell whether we will be with Awami League in the next election or not. Decisions will be taken considering all aspects including people's right to vote, and right to live a dignified life. And the decision of the party chief is final in this regard."

Speaking about barring the party chief GM Quader from performing his duties through court, he said, the party would still be run as per GM Quader's decision.

Mashiur Rahman Ranga, former secretary general of Jatiya Party who was recently relieved from all posts of the party, told TBS, "I am still with the Jatiya Party. I will work according to the decisions taken by the party before the election."

On the matter of preventing GM Quader from performing duties as Jatiya Party chairman by filing a case, he said, "This is a legal process. It is natural to take legal action against someone who violates the law. There is nothing else here."

Political analysts, however, said that Rowshan Ershad is known as an Awami League supporter in the Jatiya Party.

But as she is now politically inactive due to illness, many people think that the anti-Awami faction in Jatiya Party is getting stronger, they said, adding that in such a situation, various discussions are going on in the political arena about what will be the role of the Jatiya Party in the upcoming national elections slated for late 2023 or early 2024.

Awami League Joint Secretary General Mahabubul Alam Hanif told TBS that the Jatiya Party is still in the Grand Alliance.

"Despite being in the alliance, a clique in that party is engaged in various ill efforts to oust the government. They will conduct the proceedings as an opposition party, but they should also keep in mind how they have become the main opposition [in parliament]."

Political analyst and former election commissioner Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain told TBS that Jatiya Party has always played the role of a trump card in the national election, as a result, they also proceed with various strategies considering various issues.

Past experiences show that the Jatiya Party always takes decisions based on favourable conditions, he observed. On many occasions there were pressures on the party as well, he added.

He concluded that only time would tell whether the Jatiya Party's decisions ahead of the next general polls will replicate the previous ones.