Can Bangladesh’s weiji moment trigger the next phase of growth? StanChart asks

In Chinese, the word weiji is a fusion of two characters – one for "challenge," the other for "opportunity." And there may be no better metaphor to capture the economic moment Bangladesh finds itself in right now, according to a recent study by Standard Chartered Bangladesh (SCB).

Amid a world gripped by "uncertainty on steroids" – from volatile currencies to fractured trade flows and shifting geopolitical alignments – Bangladesh stands at a rare inflexion point. With the right mix of reforms, policy consistency, and institutional commitment, this could be the country's defining moment – its own weiji unfolding.

At a recent high-level dialogue titled "Weiji Unfolding: Bangladesh's Defining Moment in a Shifting World," economists, policymakers, and business leaders painted a cautiously optimistic picture of the road ahead. The message was clear: while the risks are real, so is the opportunity – if Bangladesh can commit to the hard work of reform.

Lutfey Siddiqi, the chief adviser's special envoy for International Affairs, said the government remains fully committed to reform efforts aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign direct investment.

"Moving forward, we must draw on collective expertise and align policy support to navigate global market complexities and drive sustainable, inclusive growth for Bangladesh," he said.

Naser Ezaz Bijoy, CEO, Standard Chartered Bangladesh, said although short-term indicators point to a potential turning point, Bangladesh's confidence is rooted in the strength of long-term fundamentals.

"We believe the current stabilisation presents an opportunity for sustained growth – but achieving this will depend on coordinated policy measures, ongoing external support, and structural reforms to revitalise growth drivers amid persistent global geopolitical uncertainties," Naser said.

Sabah Saleheen Azim, head of Markets and Corporate Sales, Standard Chartered Bangladesh, said Bangladesh is poised at the edge of transformative growth, ready to become a major global economic contributor.

"In order to better navigate today's volatile global environment, it is critical that we embed sound risk management practices to manage foreign exchange and interest rate uncertainties," said Sabah.

 Stabilisation signals amid global volatility

According to the SCB, after months of economic turbulence, recent macro indicators suggest that some form of stabilisation is underway.

For example, GDP growth rebounded to around 4.5% in Q2 of FY25, up from 2% in the previous quarter. Inflation, which hovered around 10% for much of last year, is projected to drop to below 7.5% in FY26.

Also, foreign exchange reserves are showing signs of recovery, expected to reach $25 billion soon. A narrowing current account deficit – now at 0.5% of GDP – has been supported by strong remittance inflows and resilient exports.

Recent support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), totalling $1.3 billion, has not only eased the balance of payments pressure but also unlocked additional multilateral funding.

Yet SCB found, these numbers tell only part of the story.

Despite the turbulence, Bangladesh's structural strengths remain firm. A young and growing population, strong domestic consumption, robust remittance flows, and a globally competitive garments sector continue to serve as the backbone of the economy.

Perhaps equally important is the country's rapidly expanding digital financial infrastructure, which has created new channels for inclusion, productivity, and innovation.

The evolving global landscape – marked by a weakening US dollar, fragmentation in trade, and a fragile Chinese economy – has opened new doors for countries like Bangladesh. As supply chains diversify away from traditional hubs, Bangladesh finds itself on investor shortlists alongside Vietnam and Mexico, said the SCB report.

But unlike its competitors, Bangladesh has yet to clinch significant trade agreements that could shield it from global shocks.

Banking sector, fiscal reforms top the agenda

Despite progress, critical fault lines remain. Tax-to-GDP remains stuck at around 7%, and non-performing loans still hover near 24%, threatening the foundations of the financial sector, says the SCB.

A comprehensive banking sector reform bill is reportedly in the works, aiming to address weak governance and chronic inefficiencies. At the same time, subsidy rationalisation and market-based reforms in interest and FX rates are being rolled out in phases.

Without sound risk management, no amount of opportunity will help Bangladesh navigate what lies ahead, said Sabah Saleheen Azim of SCB. He said foreign exchange and interest rate volatility are no longer just theoretical threats – they're here and happening.