Monitoring climate, human behaviour can prevent disease outbreaks, finds Bangladeshi researcher at UC Berkeley

Tracking human movement, climate shifts, and social behaviour could be vital tools in preventing future disease outbreaks, according to a research conducted by a Bangladeshi researcher at the University of California, Berkeley in the US.

The cutting-edge research by the university's Demography Department Assistant Professor Ayesha S Mahmud has revealed that closely monitoring these factors can significantly enhance public health response and reduce disease spread — especially in an era of accelerating climate change.

Ayesha, the daughter of Bangladesh's interim government Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud, specialises in data-driven disease modelling and has integrated demographic, environmental, and behavioural data to forecast how illnesses spread across different settings — from densely populated cities to remote rural areas.

Her work shows that real-time monitoring — such as mobile phone data and digital behaviour trends — could provide public health officials with earlier and more accurate warnings of disease hotspots, according to an article published on the UC Berkeley website's Letter & Science section last Wednesday (16 April).

"My work is ultimately about applying science to reduce health disparities and improve response," Ayesha explained. "Especially as climate change accelerates, we need new ways to anticipate and address the health risks it creates."

One striking example from her team's research: chickenpox transmission appears to increase in drier climates — a previously undocumented link. In another study, mobile phone movement data proved highly effective in predicting where infections might rise next.

Ayesha's work has contributed to global health forecasting, spanning diseases like chickenpox, RSV, Covid-19, and cholera, according to the article.

Her team has developed models to assess risks following natural disasters, such as forecasting cholera outbreaks in Mozambique after cyclones and estimating mortality after Hurricane Maria.

During the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, she co-led the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Study along with fellow demography faculty member Dennis Feehan, one of the first major efforts in the US to analyse how social contact patterns influence infection risk.

The study revealed notable differences in interaction patterns across age, gender, and racial groups — offering crucial insight into who might be most vulnerable.

Originally starting out researching in astronomy, Ayesha's academic journey later shifted toward the intersection of human systems and public health.

Her research — supported by the National Institutes of Health, the Gates Foundation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Meta Inc  reflects a growing recognition that disease prevention in the 21st century must be as much about people and behaviour as it is about biology.

"Understanding how social and environmental shocks affect vulnerable populations is critical," she said.