Unprecedented ascension, inevitable fall

Illustration: TBS

For Sheikh Hasina, the 7 January 2024 election was perhaps like any other — another scripted spectacle, dressed up as democracy, stripped of real choice. 

With the opposition sidelined and loyalists disguised as "independents", she thought she had perfected the art of manufactured legitimacy. After all, it had worked since 2014. Why wouldn't it work again?

Little did she know how quickly the fragile illusion she had so painstakingly constructed would unravel. In less than seven months, the very foundations she built her regime on — fear, control and illusion — was crushed to the ground.

By 5 August 2024, not only was she forced to surrender power, but in a stunning twist, she fled the country altogether.

To many, it may have seemed sudden and unexpected. But in truth, it was inevitable — history catching up with a vengeance.

Hasina's political journey began on 17 May 1981, when she returned from exile following the assassination of her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Taking over a fractured Awami League, she navigated a volatile landscape of military rule and shifting alliances. She joined hands with ideological rivals to oust General Ershad's dictatorship in 1990, and though her party lost the 1991 election, she emerged as a key opposition force.

Her demand for elections under a neutral caretaker government led to the historic 13th amendment in 1996, which brought the Awami League back to power. But in 2001, she faced a crushing defeat, boycotted parliament, and rejected BNP's bid to install a partisan figure as caretaker head in 2006. Political unrest followed, culminating in a 2007 army-backed emergency that saw Hasina jailed, exiled, and finally released ahead of the 2008 general election. 

That December, riding on her "Charter for Change", Hasina swept back to power — marking the beginning of an era where she would dominate Bangladesh's politics for the next decade and a half.

But as the years passed, Hasina's government struggled to deliver on its promises, increasingly showing authoritarian tendencies. Opposition voices faced growing intolerance, the press came under harsh attacks, and Hasina openly vowed to crush the BNP.

Her most controversial move was the abolition of the caretaker government system through a constitutional amendment in 2011, effectively removing the safeguard for free and fair elections.

The fallout was predictable. The BNP-led opposition boycotted the 2014 general election, citing the impossibility of a credible vote under a partisan government. Their resistance sparked widespread violence, leaving many dead.

Facing persistent opposition, Hasina secured power almost unchallenged. In the 2014 election, her party's candidates were elected unopposed in 153 constituencies, with little regard for the parliament's legitimacy.

Further consolidating her control, Hasina pushed through another constitutional amendment in 2014 granting parliament the power to impeach Supreme Court judges — a role traditionally reserved for the Supreme Judicial Council.

However, the Supreme Court struck down the amendment, provoking Hasina's ire. The controversy culminated in the Chief Justice's resignation, followed by his forced exile.

She also enacted harsh laws like the Digital Security Act in 2018, designed to silence dissent and muzzle critics. Under this law, the press faced relentless intimidation and censorship enforced by government agencies and intelligence forces. A climate of fear took hold, stifling freedom of speech and independent journalism.

Meanwhile, as the 2018 election approached, the BNP initially refused to participate under Hasina's government. Yet, after she promised a free and fair vote, they reconsidered — despite their leader, Khaleda Zia, being imprisoned on corruption charges at the time.

What followed was a brazen subversion of the electoral process. Ballot boxes were stuffed with fake votes the night before polling — a rigging so blatant it earned the nickname "Raater Vote" (midnight election). By then, the election administration was deeply politicised and complicit in the fraud.

Back in power, Hasina's rule grew markedly more authoritarian. The very institutions she once vowed to strengthen steadily crumbled under executive dominance. 

The Election Commission lost all credibility, accused of turning a blind eye to ballot-stuffing, voter intimidation, and the barring of opposition polling agents in both national and local elections. 

The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), once tasked with holding public officials accountable, became a selective enforcer — aggressively pursuing opposition figures while shielding ruling party elites and politically connected business interests.

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) remained conspicuously silent amid mounting abuses, including a spike in enforced disappearances, custodial torture, and extrajudicial killings — many linked to the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). 

Despite global outcry, including sanctions by the United States in 2021 against top RAB officials, the government not only denied wrongdoing but publicly praised the force.

Meanwhile, Parliament degenerated into a rubber-stamp institution, with most seats held by Awami League members or handpicked "independents". Debate was rare, dissent rarer. Opposition lawmakers were routinely shouted down or ejected, and legislation passed with little scrutiny. The chamber's main function seemed to be singing Hasina's praises, rather than providing checks and balances — a far cry from the democratic ideal she once championed.

Cultivating a personality cult reminiscent of North Korea, her government mandated "Bangabandhu Corners" in offices and schools to glorify the legacy of her assassinated father. The year 2020 was declared "Mujib Year" to reinforce this narrative.

Between 2020 and the collapse of her regime, Hasina's administration spent a staggering Tk1,261 crore of public funds on "Mujib Year" celebrations alone, according to financial disclosures presented at an interim government Advisory Council meeting in late 2024.

Surrounded by sycophants and rife with corruption, Hasina basked in a distorted reality — claiming sole credit for the country's development. Infrastructure projects, often completed at two to three times the original cost, became the centrepiece of her touted achievements. The Padma Bridge, for instance, ballooned from Tk10,162 crore to Tk30,770 crore.

As the years passed, Hasina's government struggled to deliver on its promises, increasingly showing authoritarian tendencies. Opposition voices faced growing intolerance, the press came under harsh attacks, and Hasina openly vowed to crush the BNP. Her most controversial move was the abolition of the caretaker government system through a constitutional amendment in 2011.

Meanwhile, the financial sector was ravaged by mismanagement and theft. Under Hasina's watch, over Tk200,000 crore in bad loans piled up across state and private banks — much of it extended to ruling party allies with little intention of repayment. 

Ahsan Mansur, former IMF official and economist and currently the central bank governor, revealed that $16.7 billion had been spirited away through forced takeovers of banks by conglomerates such as the S Alam Group, with the covert backing of state intelligence agencies.

By late 2024, an interim economic white paper estimated that $16 billion — roughly Tk1.35 trillion — was illegally laundered abroad per year during Hasina's 15-year rule. Properties and shell companies were traced in Canada, Malaysia, Dubai, and London, with close relatives of Hasina, including her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, accused of laundering Tk59,000 crore through the Rooppur Nuclear Project and Tk20,000 crore from the sale of national ID data.

Crony capitalism thrived as monopolies grew around those close to the Prime Minister's family. Rather than rein in the looting, Hasina often promoted the perpetrators — rewarding them with party nominations, protection from prosecution, or diplomatic immunity.

The economy, burdened by these excesses, teetered. Foreign reserves dwindled, the taka depreciated, and inflation soared into double digits. Inequality deepened, with a rising Gini index and growing despair among the middle and lower classes. As the gap between public suffering and elite excess widened, trust in the state collapsed — bringing down with it the regime that had ruled unchallenged for over a decade.

The economy suffered under such mismanagement, with soaring inflation hitting ordinary Bangladeshis hard and wealth inequality deepening, leaving many further behind.

Amid growing international pressure for a free, fair, and inclusive election in 2024, Hasina chose to mock global calls for democratic standards. Instead, she orchestrated a sham election, boycotted by the BNP and other opposition parties. Using a new tactic, she fielded her party loyalists as independent candidates, creating a façade of competition.

With this, she took power for the fourth consecutive term — something unprecedented in the history of South Asian politics. 

However, what followed this farcical vote became a defining chapter in Bangladesh's political history.

The spark ignited in June when the Supreme Court reinstated a controversial job quota system favouring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans. For thousands of students and job seekers, it was the last straw in a system stacked against merit.

In July, peaceful protests erupted again but were met with brutal government repression. Tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition turned campuses into battlegrounds.

By mid-July, the movement grew beyond quotas — it became a revolt against Hasina's regime.

Between 16 July and 5 August, state forces unleashed a violent crackdown known as the July Massacre, killing over 1,000 protesters and detaining thousands more.

Far from crushing dissent, the uprising swelled, drawing in workers, farmers, civil servants, and people from all walks of life. The demand became clear: justice, freedom, and the end of autocratic rule.

On 5 August 2024, facing widespread defection and civil disobedience, Hasina resigned and fled the country. 

Thus ended Hasina's 15 years of autocracy. The July Uprising dismantled a rigged system and heralded a new era of hope.