Fertiliser shortage: First phase of a looming crisis?

On 23 August 2026, more than 200 farmers gathered at a dealer point and, after waiting for hours, broke open a warehouse and took away nearly 10,000 kg of urea in Bhurungamari, Kurigram. The dealer had been allocated 1,320 bags of urea, of which 340 bags were reportedly stored at the warehouse. 

Earlier on 10 August, farmers blocked a highway in Lalmonirhat's Kaliganj and staged a demonstration, claiming that they had to pay up to Tk2,000 to Tk2,200 for a bag of TSP, Tk1,700 to Tk1,800 for DAP and up to Tk1,800 for a bag of urea — almost double the government-set prices.

Even though the government says there is no shortage, farmers in several parts of the country refute the official statement, saying instead that fertiliser has become difficult to obtain or is being sold above the official price, and they may need to use less of it in the upcoming Aman season. 

Moreover, the immediate concern is not Aman alone. The real test is approaching with the winter vegetable and Boro seasons, when fertiliser demand surges and Bangladesh's import dependence leaves it exposed to global price shocks, geopolitical disruptions and weak domestic production. 

With most state-owned fertiliser plants operating below capacity and more than 70% of annual demand met through imports, any disruption in procurement or distribution could turn today's localised shortages into a broader supply crisis, while driving up input costs for farmers, straining the government's subsidy bill and ultimately feeding into food prices.

Stocks on paper, shortage in the field

Data from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) shows that the projected fertiliser demand for the 2026-27 fiscal year is 6.77 million tonnes, which includes 2.62 million tonnes of urea, 1.35 million tonnes of DAP, 970,000 tonnes of MOP, 901,500 tonnes of TSP, and 921,300 tonnes of other fertilisers like NPKS, gypsum, boron, and various sulfates. 

However, despite this high anticipated demand, agriculture ministry data indicates that the country's current total fertiliser stockpile stands at just over 1.6 million tonnes. The official retail prices are Tk27 per kg for TSP, Tk21 for DAP and Tk20 for MOP. 

Fertiliser dealers in Naogaon and Bogura say the problem is not necessarily a lack of fertiliser at the district level, but gaps in distribution and allocation between BADC and BCIC dealers. They also point to a sharp rise in demand for DAP, which they say has intensified pressure on supplies during the Aman season.

Rafiqul Islam, a BADC fertiliser dealer and owner of M/S Mondol Traders at Khalsi Bazar in Naogaon's Badalgachhi, said BADC dealers receive only DAP, MOP and TSP, leaving them unable to meet farmers' wider requirements.

"As a result, farmers cannot get the fertiliser they need from nearby dealers."

Rafiqul also attributed the pressure on DAP supplies to declining soil fertility and more intensive cultivation.

"Over the past few years, soil fertility has declined, causing demand for DAP fertiliser to double. Farmers in this region are now cultivating three to four crops on the same land. So even the allocated supply is not enough to meet demand. Taking advantage of this situation, some retailers are selling fertiliser at inflated prices. The crisis will be resolved only if the disparity in allocations between BCIC and BADC fertiliser dealers is eliminated," he added.

Mizanur Rahman, a BCIC fertiliser dealer and president of the Bangladesh Fertiliser Association's Naogaon district chapter, however, rejected allegations that dealers have the freedom to arbitrarily raise prices. 

"There are 126 BCIC dealers here, each with their own shop, and there are warehouses in every union. Even when we receive fertiliser, we cannot sell it at our discretion. After collecting the fertiliser, we have to immediately inform the agriculture office. Officials then inspect the stock physically, and only after they give us permission can we display the price list and start selling. So there is no scope for us to sell fertiliser at higher prices," he said.

Mizanur further said farmers' growing preference for DAP is also adding to the pressure on supplies because of its lower official price and nitrogen content.

"DAP contains 20% nitrogen. A 50kg bag of urea is officially priced at Tk1,350, while a 50kg bag of DAP costs Tk1,050. If a farmer needs 20kg of DAP per bigha, they are now using a full 50kg bag of DAP instead of buying urea. They have realised that DAP also contains nitrogen, so they are choosing DAP because it is cheaper. We are struggling to meet the demand for DAP," he added.

He urged the authorities to bring the prices of urea and DAP closer to the same level to discourage the shift in demand towards DAP.

The complaints are not limited to Naogaon. 

Infograph: TBS

Farmers in Bogura allege that fertiliser is being sold above government-set prices, particularly when purchased by the bag. While the official price of a 50kg bag of urea is Tk1,350, farmers say they are being charged around Tk1,400 per bag. TSP, officially priced at Tk1,350, is reportedly being sold for Tk1,700–1,800, while DAP, whose official price is Tk1,050, can cost at least Tk1,600 in the market.

The experience of farmers on the ground contrasts with the authorities' assessment of overall availability. 

Mizanur Rahman, a farmer from Unhat village in Dupchanchia, said, "There is fertiliser if you pay extra; if you do not, there is none." He said urea was somewhat available in his area but DAP and MOP were virtually unavailable.

BADC dealer Abdul Halim, owner of M/s Parents Traders in Shajahanpur, also acknowledged supply constraints for some fertilisers, particularly urea.

"BADC dealers do not receive enough urea to meet demand. This August, each dealer in the upazila was allocated 122 tonnes of TSP, 164 tonnes of MOP and 49 tonnes of DAP. If we receive the fertiliser, there is no problem distributing it to farmers. Whatever supply we have is distributed in the presence of agricultural officials."

The picture is somewhat different in Sylhet and Sunamganj, where fertiliser dealers say there is no outright shortage, although delays in the supply chain are affecting how quickly fertiliser reaches farmers.

Pranoy Pal Titui, a fertiliser dealer in Sunamganj Sadar, said his allocation was sufficient to meet local demand,"We have received an adequate supply, and no farmer who comes to collect fertiliser is returning empty-handed."

A fertiliser dealer in Kanaighat, Sylhet, who spoke on condition of anonymity, similarly said the problem was not a shortage of fertiliser itself but weaknesses in the distribution system.

"There is no shortage of fertiliser. However, there are some problems with the supply system. As a result, it is taking a little longer for fertiliser to reach farmers."

Why the mismatch?

The discrepancy points to a central problem in the current fertiliser market. Official allocations may be sufficient at the district level, while farmers in particular areas can still face shortages of specific types of fertiliser, especially DAP, or pay above the government-set price. 

For the Aman season, when fertiliser application is particularly time-sensitive, such distribution bottlenecks can be as consequential as an outright shortage.

Sayla Khondokar, assistant professor at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University's Department of Agricultural Economics, said that there can be shortage at the root-level despite government data showing no shortage. 

"In Bangladesh's fertiliser market, the government's statement can be correct at the national or aggregate level, while farmers can simultaneously experience a shortage at the local level. National stock does not mean local availability." 

She added, "If the allocation to a particular upazila is below farmers' actual seasonal demand, the national stock figure becomes less meaningful to an individual farmer."

For example, she said, if 1,000 tonnes of urea are available nationally but an upazila needs 100 tonnes during a particular season and receives only 60 tonnes, that upazila is effectively facing a shortage.

The problem can also be exacerbated by hoarding or overpricing. Fertiliser may technically be included in official stock figures while remaining inaccessible to farmers.

The immediate Aman season may remain manageable, but the more consequential test lies ahead.

"In Bangladesh's fertiliser market, the government's statement can be correct at the national or aggregate level, while farmers can simultaneously experience a shortage at the local level. National stock does not mean local availability."

Sayla Khondokar, assistant professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University

Boro cultivation accounts for around 60–70% of annual fertiliser demand, according to Dr Sayla Khondokar. That makes the November-March period significantly more important than the current Aman season.

This is where the government's current assurances will face their biggest test.

The government says it will be able to meet Boro requirements. Dr Muhammad Jahangir Alam, a joint secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture, said, "We will be able to meet the requirements of the upcoming Boro season. We are always trying to keep our supply chain intact and ensure that supplies remain uninterrupted."

He said Bangladesh was reducing its exposure to disruptions in the Middle East by sourcing fertiliser from multiple countries, "Although there are some crises in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East, we source fertiliser from multiple locations. We have supplies from Morocco, Tunisia, Canada, China and various other countries. So, our supply chain remains intact."

The government has also approved the import of 115,000 tonnes of MOP and urea from Canada, Russia and Saudi Arabia at a combined cost of Tk505 crore.

But Dr Sayla Khondokar believes Bangladesh needs a much larger precautionary buffer before Boro.

"Given current domestic production constraints, Bangladesh should secure roughly 3–4 million tonnes of fertiliser before the Boro peak (November–March) as a precautionary import buffer," she said. 

She estimates annual fertiliser demand at around 6.6 million tonnes, against recent domestic production of only around 1.1 million tonnes. More than 70% of fertiliser is consumed during the Boro-Rabi season, she said, making timely imports essential. 

The domestic production problem

This dependence on imports is the structural weakness underneath the current crisis.

Bangladesh's seven state-owned fertiliser plants produced only 11.06 lakh tonnes in FY2025-26 against demand of around 66 lakh tonnes. More than 70% of requirements therefore had to be met through imports. Six of the seven plants have been shut at different times because of gas shortages, ageing machinery and raw-material constraints.

Agri-economist and former member-director of the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council  Jahangir Alam Khan argues that Bangladesh has allowed domestic production to deteriorate while becoming increasingly dependent on imports. 

"There was a time when we produced around 80% of our own fertiliser. Now, in the case of urea, we import around 80% and produce only 20% domestically — and even that level of production is not always achieved."

What the government is saying 

Agriculture officials have repeatedly maintained that national stocks are sufficient for the Aman season. Agriculture Minister Amin Ur Rashid has said fertiliser stocks are higher than last year and described reports of an artificial shortage as part of a "planned conspiracy".

Another issue is ensuring that fertiliser reaches farmers at the field level. Sometimes there are issues such as corruption, favouritism and problems involving dealers. Muhammad Jahangir Alam, Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture, said that the government is monitoring these issues regularly. 

When asked about the alleged disruptions and shortages, he replied, "Yes, we are currently seeing some unexpected reports about shortages and disruptions. We allocate fertiliser to dealers well in advance, before the beginning of each month. However, even after allocations are made, dealers sometimes fail to stock their allocated fertiliser on time. 

"That is why we are now regularly verifying the stock at each dealer's shop and checking whether dealers are actually lifting their allocated fertiliser. This monitoring is being carried out through the deputy directors of the Department of Agricultural Extension in each district and through the district administration," he added.