'Extreme heat waves are here to stay'

As heat waves continue to ravage the country and its people, reports continue to pour in about record-breaking temperatures. We wanted to look at how common heat waves are going to become and what can Bangladesh expect from the ongoing Bonn Climate Change Conference, given that it is already reeling from the effects of extreme weather events. 

The Business Standard spoke to Md Shamsuddoha, chief executive at the Center for Participatory Research and Development (CPRD), to better understand how climate change is going to affect Bangladesh. 

Shamsuddoha is currently serving in the global board of Climate Action Network (CAN), and previously was the country focal person at the Global Network of Civil Organizations for Disaster Reduction, which was officially launched by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) in Geneva in July 2007. He has also implemented a number of research projects on the political economy of climate-resilient planning and on global climate finance.

This interview has been trimmed and edited for clarity. 

Reports say that deadly heat waves will become more common in South Asia according to climate scientists. To what extent is this true? And secondly, is there any way that we can expect lower temperatures in the near future? 

What we do know is that heat waves will become more frequent. Earlier, if a heat wave occurred once a year, it did not happen again. Now we are seeing that after one heat wave sweeps through the country, another takes place. And it is becoming more intense. And another factor is humidity, the increase in which is also contributing to high temperatures. And it is fast approaching unbearable conditions. I read a recent report stating that we experienced 100% humidity – something that has never happened before. So, not only heat waves, but also other parameters in weather are contributing to more intense and frequent high temperatures. 

This will, I think, become a permanent part of summers in Bangladesh, it will become normalised. Summers will come with some heat waves. 

Secondly, lower temperatures will not return because of global warming. The Paris Agreement [COP21] and scientists suggest that global warming has to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. But a 1.5-degree Celsius spike will happen in just the next five years, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization.

We have already reached a 1.1-degree Celsius spike. So, if we fail to regulate the pollutants, such as the use of fossil fuels, then we can expect even a 3-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures. 

We know that Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. But this year's heat waves seem to have caught most people off-guard. Were there projections to indicate the frequency and intensity of the heat waves we have been having this year? 

No, this was not projected. IPC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] carries out global projections, which cover South Asia. We take those reports and their implications into account. 

However, we do not have specific, long-term projections. So, for example, we cannot say how high the temperature or how intense the heat waves will be in Bangladesh in the next five years. We do have short-term projections, say, for the next two or three months, which are based on weather patterns and atmospheric circulation, among other things. 

The Bonn conference is the first time climate diplomats will have come together since COP27 – which saw a last-minute landmark deal with rich countries taking responsibility for their carbon pollution by setting up a fund for vulnerable countries impacted by climate change. What are Bangladesh's expectations from this conference? 

Let me explain the process. 

Bonn is the place for technical negotiation to advance what has been decided in the last COP [2022]. There is a transitional committee with the responsibility to essentially work out the decisions taken last year so that implementation decisions will be ready by the end of this year for COP28 in Dubai. 

At the conference, the transitional committee is tasked with working out decisions, such as how big the loss and damage fund should be, how the fund will be managed, how much money can come in, and which countries will receive it.  

Our expectation from this Bonn conference [in which already two meetings have taken place and two are upcoming] is that focused, specific recommendations are created for COP28 – so that the fund is established at the upcoming COP.  

So that, the ones responsible [rich countries] do not linger further, they do not say, "Hey we need more time, one year is not enough." 

Basically, they should be ready with the Loss and Damage Fund – with the ways to distribute the fund, with the decisions as to who will pay, and from which new sources the fund will come in. And by new I mean, there are existing funds already, such as the adaptation fund and the green climate fund. Many also try to link loss and damage funds with humanitarian assistance funds, which we generally receive after a disaster and which sees low political argument.

The Loss and Damage Fund essentially has two parts. One is called Ex-Ante – this is about preventing and minimising disasters. So for instance, the focus would be on strengthening warning systems. And then there's the ex-post part – this is what happens after a climate-changed induced disaster – and this is not even part of the discussion yet.  

The developed countries would like to muddy the definitions and instead of providing for the ex-post Loss and Damage Fund, they would rather provide a humanitarian assistance fund. The problem is, this takes them off the obligation of paying for the climate-change-induced damage. And there is political bias when it comes to providing humanitarian assistance to a country.  

This ex-post part of the Loss and Damage Fund would address the economic and non-economic loss of life. The former would mean rehabilitation [such as rebuilding houses damaged by a cyclone]. But the non-economic loss [that is people displaced due to a cyclone, students dropping out of school, or people falling sick from the heat wave] remains unaddressed.  

Our expectation out of the Bonn conference is that the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28 will be of proper standards, it will be new and additional, it will be politically decided, and it will be separate from the humanitarian assistance fund. 

These are the expectations of Bangladesh's civil society [working with climate change], and I would say that it is the same position of the Bangladesh government. 

Are COP and its outcomes moving fast enough for a country like Bangladesh, which faces high risks from climate change?  

There's more frustration here, rather than a fast pace. I would like to add something here: The way we see COP and its outcomes is that the Loss and Damage Fund is our main priority, and without it, we will perish. 

However, the concentration should be given to limiting the global temperature – that should be the mandatory, non-compromising focus. There are several who say otherwise. But in my opinion, the primary priority should be to limit the rise in global temperature.  

Because if we do not limit the temperature, and if it increases by 2 or 2.5 degree Celsius, the Loss and Damage Fund will not work. Then the loss and damage will reach such a point, that the funds from the global community – say $100 million or $200 million or even $300 million – will not make any difference. It will not be possible to address the loss and damage. 

It is imperative to address the causes. If we focus on addressing the symptoms instead of the causes, the causes will keep intensifying.