Climate-induced displacement could force Bangladesh to 'redraw its map': Rizwana

Environment, Forest and Climate Change Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan today said climate change is posing an existential threat to Bangladesh's national security, territorial integrity and social stability.

Depicting a dire portrait of a future where rising seas and vanishing coastlines, she said climate-induced displacement could force Bangladesh to "redraw its map" within decades.

The environment adviser made the remarks while delivering a lecture titled 'Impact of Climate Change on National Security', held at the Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) in Dhaka.

She warned that a one-metre sea-level rise — a plausible scenario by mid-century — would submerge 21 coastal districts, displacing millions and salinising rivers that sustain agriculture and fisheries. 

"When we speak of climate change, we are not just talking about sweet water turning salty," she said, adding, "We are talking about the surrender of sovereignty, the loss of national territory, and the erasure of communities." 

Rizwana cited projections that 52 small island nations, including the Maldives, could disappear by 2100. 

For Bangladesh, she said, the stakes are even higher – 65 percent of the population relies on freshwater fisheries for protein, and saline intrusion threatens to collapse this lifeline. 

The adviser dismantled the notion of climate change as a distant environmental concern, reframing it as a multiplier of instability. 

Floods, cyclones, and droughts already cost Bangladesh one percent of its GDP annually—a figure set to double by 2050, he said. 

But, Rizwana said, the cascading crises of crop failures, water scarcity, and mass migration, she argued, will ignite conflicts over dwindling resources.

"Imagine one third of Bangladesh goes under seawater," she asked the audience. "The remaining two-thirds, already overburdened, will face unprecedented pressure to feed and house millions. Instability will become the norm."

Lambasting the "tactical opposition" of oil-producing nations, Rizwana criticised the failure of the Kyoto Protocol and the voluntary loopholes of the Paris Agreement. 

While G20 nations emit 80 percent of global greenhouse gases, Bangladesh— ranked seventh most vulnerable to climate impacts — bears the brunt of climate change, she said.

 She highlighted the grim irony of 2024 being the hottest year on record, with ocean warming and glacier melt accelerating at twice the rate of previous decades. 

"The world's inaction is a death sentence for nations like ours," the climate change adviser said, noting that even if all countries meet their climate pledges, temperatures will still rise by 3 to 4.5 degree Celcius - far beyond the 1.5°C threshold for survival. 

She outlined Bangladesh's National Adaptation Plan, which identifies 11 climate "stress zones" and demands $230 billion by 2050 for resilience projects. 

Yet, she stressed that money alone is insufficient. "We must redesign our development model," she insisted, urging a shift from fossil fuels to regional renewable energy partnerships, like importing hydropower from Nepal.

Rizwana called for architectural reforms—natural ventilation over air conditioning, daylight over electric lights— and stricter enforcement of environmental laws, admitting current measures are hobbled by corruption and understaffing. 

"Every time I order an enforcement raid, my team says they've only got six magistrates for the entire country," she acknowledged, appealing to the armed forces for support in regulating polluting industries. 

Rizwana praised the Army's rapid response to river erosion in Kurigram but underscored the need for long-term rehabilitation strategies. 

"The military's role will evolve from disaster relief to managing climate refugees and securing water-sharing treaties," she said, citing tensions over transboundary rivers. 

"This is not about saving trees—it's about saving our nation. If we fail, future generations will inherit a country unrecognisable on today's maps."

Commandant of Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) Major General Chowdhury Mohammad Azizul Haque Hazary, Deputy Commandant of DSCSC Commodore Mustaque Ahmed and Chief Instructor of DSCSC Brigadier General Mohammad Mehedi Hasan were also present on the occasion, among others.