Rafale vs J-10C: Dogfight redefines air power narratives

In the recent Kashmir conflict, another flashpoint has ignited – this time in the skies.

The aerial clash between India and Pakistan drew immediate attention not only for its geopolitical implications but also for what it revealed, or perhaps obscured, about two of the world's most advanced fighter jets: France's Rafale and China's J-10C.

What began with India's reported air strikes on nine Pakistani "terrorist infrastructure" sites quickly escalated.

Pakistan's military spokesperson, Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif, claimed the downing of five Indian aircraft, including three French-made Rafales. India's response was muted – its Air Force later admitted to "combat losses" but withheld details, stating only that "losses are a part of combat" and confirming all pilots had returned.

Four Indian officials in Kashmir admitted in the media that three jets had crashed in the territory, while US intelligence sources supported claims that Chinese-made J-10Cs had shot down at least two Indian aircraft, including a Rafale.

The specifics remain murky. But the implications are sharp.

J-10C enters the spotlight

This marks the first known combat use of the J-10C – a fighter exclusive to the Chinese and Pakistani air forces. The aircraft, built by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, is a 4.5-generation, single-engine jet designed for multirole use.

Until now, it had been mostly confined to military exercises and theoretical comparisons.

"The crisis bolstered the [Pakistani] army," noted South Asia expert Michael Kugelman, pointing to how the performance of Chinese defence tech in actual combat is now under global scrutiny.

The incident has prompted military analysts worldwide to study the encounter closely.

"You have arguably China's most capable weapon against the West's most capable weapon," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 

"Air warfare communities in China, the US and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn't," he said.

While both Rafale and J-10C fall into the same generation, the French aircraft has long been marketed – and widely believed – to be in a league of its own. 

Twin-engine, equipped with cutting-edge avionics and capable of deploying the Meteor air-to-air missile, Rafale has found buyers across the globe, including Egypt, Qatar and India.

Yet, the reported downing of even a single Rafale – let alone three – has rattled assumptions.

Reassessing air dominance

The dogfight has triggered reassessments not only among analysts but in financial markets. Dassault Aviation's shares have seen a significant fall since then, while Chinese defence suppliers received a noticeable boost.

Much of the debate hinges on what weapons were used. The PL-15, China's long-range air-to-air missile, is said to rival or exceed the Meteor.

There is no confirmation that either was deployed during the clash. "If the PL-15 is working as advertised or better than expected, the Chinese would like to hear that," said Byron Callan, a Washington-based defence expert and managing partner of Capital Alpha Partners.

"Arms firms will be anxious to separate technical performance from operational factors," he added. The real challenge lies in isolating hardware capability from pilot training, tactics and the fog of war.

A digital battlefield

As expected, the confrontation extended far beyond radar screens. Social media, flooded with memes and misinformation, became a battleground of its own.

"Young Pakistanis used the memes culture, using Indian misinformation as a joke and humour," said digital rights activist Nighat Dad. India, in turn, blocked dozens of Pakistani accounts on X and YouTube, raising questions over digital censorship amid wartime narratives.

While both governments have kept a tight lid on operational details, global defence analysts are left to piece together fragments. What is evident is that this encounter, brief as it was, has unsettled assumptions and reignited a high-stakes conversation about the future of air combat in Asia.

The clash was not just about territory – it was a marketing war, a technical showcase, and a geopolitical signal all at once. But the winner was neither Pakistan nor India, it was China through their jets.