Iran's missile arsenal and its role in a widening conflict with the US and Israel

Following joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 1 March 2026, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials, Tehran has framed the conflict as a battle for the Islamic Republic's survival.

In response, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and US-linked military facilities in the Gulf, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed."

Iran's response is underpinned by a diverse missile and drone arsenal, hardened infrastructure, and strategic maritime capabilities. Analysts say the arsenal allows Tehran to project power across the region despite lacking a modern air force, says Al Jazeera.

Missile arsenal

Iran possesses the Middle East's largest and most varied missile force, including:

• Short-range ballistic missiles (150–800 km): Fateh variants and older Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 models are designed for rapid regional strikes. Their ability to be launched in volleys compresses warning times and complicates pre-emptive measures. Analysts describe these systems as part of Iran's "rapid regional response" or "first punch" capability.
• Medium-range ballistic missiles (1,500–2,500 km): Systems including Shahab-3, Emad, Ghadr-1, Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, Haj Qassem, and the solid-fuel Sejjil put Israel and US-linked bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE within reach. Solid-fuel missiles like the Sejjil allow faster launch readiness and improved survivability.
• Cruise missiles: Low-flying systems such as the Soumar, Ya-Ali, Quds variants, Hoveyzeh, Paveh, and Ra'ad are designed to "hug the terrain" to avoid detection, with the Soumar having a reported range of 2,500 km. They are often coordinated with drones to overload air defenses.
• Specialized and naval systems: Hypersonic Fattah missiles have been showcased, though their operational status is unverified. Maritime capabilities include antiship missiles, naval mines, and fast-attack craft to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Strategic infrastructure and survivability

Iran's missile program is partially housed in underground "missile cities" and protected launch sites. According to sources, these facilities:

• Ensure missiles can survive initial attacks.
• Enable sustained launches over time, shifting conflicts from a "short, decisive campaign" into a prolonged exchange.
• Force adversaries to account for high risks and long-term costs in targeting Iran's missile infrastructure.

These hardened sites are considered the "backbone of deterrence," preserving strike reach across the region.

Saturation and evasion tactics

Iran integrates drones and low-flying cruise missiles to bypass advanced air defenses. Sources indicate the tactics aim to:

• Overload defensive systems with large numbers of low-cost drones.
• Wear down air defenses by forcing repeated interceptor use.
• Maintain extended alert windows for critical infrastructure such as airports, ports, and energy sites.
• Mask simultaneous or follow-on missile attacks, increasing the chance of successful strikes.

Analysts expect such saturation tactics to intensify in a prolonged confrontation, raising the operational costs for the US, Israel, and regional partners.

Maritime leverage

In addition to land-based missiles, Iran is deploying antiship missiles and fast-attack craft in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have disrupted commercial shipping, with companies such as Maersk suspending operations after the IRGC reportedly struck US- and UK-linked tankers. Experts say this extends Iran's leverage into global energy markets without requiring a formal blockade.

Iran-aligned groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have signaled support following Khamenei's death. The combination of missile reach, drone saturation tactics, and maritime disruption increases the potential for the conflict to expand across the region. Tehran has emphasized that any attack on Iranian territory will be treated as the start of a wider war rather than a limited engagement.