Rohingya issue became election tool in 2018: Speakers

Bangladesh's response to the Rohingya crisis was deeply shaped by domestic political calculations ahead of the 2018 national election, speakers said at a roundtable today (23 November).

The discussion took place at the session "Dancing with Giants: The Art of Small-State Survival," organised by the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS) as part of the Bay of Bengal Conversation 2025 at a Dhaka hotel.

Presenting the keynote, Parvez Karim Abbasi, executive director of CGS, said Bangladesh's handling of the Rohingya crisis ahead of the 2018 election illustrated how "foreign policy becomes an extension of domestic politics." With public sympathy high and opposition participation expected at the time, the government internationalised the Rohingya issue to boost legitimacy, he noted. But once the Awami League returned to power, Dhaka gradually stepped back from Western-backed multilateral efforts and relied heavily on the "good offices" of China and India — a shift Abbasi described as moving from balancing to bandwagoning. The result, he said, was a failed repatriation process and growing criticism of ineffective diplomacy.

On the Teesta dispute, Abbasi said Bangladesh initially hedged between Chinese and Indian proposals but ultimately aligned with New Delhi, especially after the 2024 election. This reversal not only stalled progress but also triggered domestic backlash and signalled Dhaka's political dependence on India, he added.

Turning to trade dynamics, he highlighted the structural dilemma where Bangladesh exports overwhelmingly to the West while depending on China and India for imports. Pressure from RMG entrepreneurs — who fear sanctions or supply disruptions — pushed the government toward maintaining neutrality, he said.

Speakers noted that since the controversial elections of 2014, 2018 and 2024, Bangladesh has become more reliant on India, China and Russia, while its relationship with the US-led West has deteriorated over concerns about human rights and democracy.

The roundtable was moderated by David Patrician of RTL Nord, Germany. Experts from India, Nepal, Malaysia, Australia and Germany joined the discussion, stressing that small South Asian states increasingly navigate great-power rivalries through diplomacy, delay and tactical flexibility.

Speaking at the session, Selim Jahan, professorial fellow at the BRAC Institute for Governance and Development, said, "For small states, it is very important that we come together as a collective." Sometimes small states do not practice dancing before they dance — homework is important.

"You cannot go into negotiations with giants with half-cooked ideas or information. Foreign policy has always been 'friendship to all, malice to none', but for small states it may now be 'interest in everybody, love to none' because we are walking on a tightrope. Surrounded by giants, we should not think and act like dwarfs. Coming together, we can be a force," he added.

Constantino Xavier, senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, India; Pramod Jaiswal, Research Director at the Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement, Nepal; Shafqat Munir, Senior Research Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS); Touseef Mehraj Raina, Co-founder of the Jammu & Kashmir Policy Institute, India; Zahid Shahab Ahmed, Associate Professor at the National Defence College, Australia; and Zuraida Binti Kamaruddin, former Minister of Plantation and Commodities of Malaysia, also spoke at the event.