Bay of Bengal braces for fourth cyclonic storm 'Michaung' this year: Skymet Weather

The Bay of Bengal appears to be on track for another storm named 'Michaung' soon which is likely to affect India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

This would be the fourth storm this year, reports Mint citing Skymet Weather, a private Indian company that provides weather forecasting services.

The new warning comes only days after the cyclonic storm Midhili hit several districts of Bangladesh and northeastern states of India.

The latest meteorological conditions indicate another cyclonic storm is expected in the Bay of Bengal basin, according to Skymet Weather.

According to the Mint report, cyclones typically form in the Bay of Bengal between April and December. However, there is a pre-monsoon spike in cyclonic conditions in May and a post-monsoon peak in November. These conditions make November the most favourable month for cyclogenesis due to hazardous weather conditions.

It is common for about four storms to form in the Indian Seas every year. However, warmer sea surface temperatures can lead to more than four storms in a year.

This year, the upcoming storm would be the sixth in Indian water bodies and the fourth in the Bay of Bengal.

Numerical models suggest that more storms are expected due to unfavourable weather conditions.

The upcoming tropical storm is anticipated to originate in the Gulf of Thailand. Meteorological conditions over the Gulf of Thailand and the adjoining Malay Peninsula in the lower levels create potential cyclonic circulation, as reported by Skymetweather.

While not all weather disturbances result in the formation of cyclonic pressure, the geographical, climatological, and environmental conditions support further accentuation. There is suspicion that the equatorial disturbance may enter the Andaman Sea on or after November 25.

Over the years, it has been observed that weather systems originating from the Gulf of Thailand and the Malay Peninsula tend to undertake long sea travel. Therefore, these equatorial disturbances may strengthen and potentially cause landfall along the coastlines of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

As a result, Odisha, West Bengal, and Bangladesh are at risk of hazardous weather conditions following a cyclone strike. It will become clear in the next two days whether the storm will dissipate or impact the region. If the fourth cyclonic storm of the year for the Bay of Bengal occurs, it will be named 'Michaung' and pronounced as 'Migjaum,' as suggested by Myanmar.