Ershad's Jatiyo Party wobbles in Rangpur, Jamaat moves to capitalise

Rangpur has long been considered a stronghold of the Jatiyo Party (JaPa). Founded by former military ruler HM Ershad, the party dominated the northern division for decades, often winning seats by commanding margins. But this time, it is in trouble due to organisational weakness.  

Voters across Rangpur's eight districts say the party is grappling with internal feuds and the consequences of past political decisions. Many believe JaPa gradually drifted into the Awami League's orbit over the past 16 years, eroding its independent identity.

In the last three general elections, the Awami League (AL) won three of Rangpur's six key seats. Although the AL is not contesting this time, the electoral field remains competitive, with the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami emerging as key challengers.

Considering the reality, voters' project that JaPa may get five to ten out of 33 seats in the division. 

Shifting equations in Gaibandha

Gaibandha-5 (Saghata-Phulchhari) has traditionally been regarded as a JaPa stronghold. However, during a by-election under the AL government, the then ruling party's candidate won the seat, signalling cracks in JaPa's base.

Though the AL is absent from this race, the political equation has shifted again — this time due to what voters describe as JaPa's weakened organisational strength and Jamaat's growing presence.

A visit to Char Kabilpur Government Primary School offered a glimpse into local sentiment. The relatively isolated char area typically sees enthusiastic voter turnout.

Older farmer Abdul Momin said the "plough" symbol of JaPa once dominated the area.

"People here used to vote eagerly for the plough. But now the plough is divided. The more popular candidate is contesting as a rebel. So the real fight will be between an independent candidate and Jamaat," he said.

Several residents echoed his view.

Discontent in Kurigram

In Kurigram, JaPa has fielded candidates in all four constituencies and is actively campaigning. Still, scepticism persists among voters.

Nur Islam, a resident of Char Kuti-Bamandanga in Kurigram-1, described JaPa as a "dead party", alleging that its leaders prioritised personal interests over public concerns in parliament.

"They only come during elections. This time, Kurigram will see major political change as Jamaat is ahead organisationally," he said.

Emran Hossain, a private-sector employee living in Rangpur Sadar, said the party has struggled since Ershad's death.

"Internal conflicts, neglect of constituencies after becoming MPs, and the region's slow development — voters are taking these issues seriously," he said, adding that even JaPa chairman GM Quader faces a tough contest in his own seat.

Competitive field in Nilphamari

In Nilphamari-4 (Saidpur-Kishoreganj), voter Runa Pramanik described the situation as precarious for JaPa.

"Rangpur was once their fortress. Now it's vulnerable," she said. "Saidpur has its own vote bank, and Kishoreganj is known as a JaPa base. They may still do relatively well here. But Jamaat is determined to secure some of these seats. The BNP appears to be struggling to match Jamaat's momentum."

Jamaat has shared three seats with its allies in the division and intensified campaigning in other constituencies to consolidate support.

Meanwhile, the BNP claims strong grassroots backing across the north, asserting it maintains a significant vote bank in the region.

JaPa hopeful

Despite the challenges, JaPa leaders point to their historical performance. Between 1991 and 2008, the party won 92% of the seats in the division.

Party Chairman GM Quader has repeatedly told the media that JaPa candidates remain well-positioned.

"We could not uphold our tradition in the past due to injustice and oppression," he said. "If voting, counting and the announcement of results are conducted properly, we will secure many more votes and seats."

Contacted, the party's Secretary General Shamim Haider Patwary told The Business Standard, "We have been participating in the election in an adverse situation as there have been fears of attacks, cases and mob violence, discouraging our candidates and supporters from campaigning." 

Expressing optimism about winning 30 out of the 33 seats, he said they are known to voters, familiar with them and tested. 

Shamim, who is contesting from Gaibandha-1 and-5, alleged that their rival candidates have been spreading illegal money to manipulate the election, but the money is nothing to their popularity.