Battle for throne: It's Rahman vs Rahman

TBS Illustration

As dawn breaks on Thursday, Bangladesh awakens to what many call its "festival of democracy", finally heading to the polls after one and a half turbulent years. For millions of voters, it is a long-awaited chance to reclaim their collective voice after 17 years of one-party dominance.

TBS Highlights

This election is not only a contest for power, it is also exercising one's choice in a constitutional referendum, a rare "Yes/No" vote that could reshape the political order.

To many, the festival is being considered as defining moments for Churchill's so-called "little man". The stakes could hardly be higher. After three widely criticised elections since 2014 and the July 2024 uprising drenched in blood and tears that ended Sheikh Hasina's rule, voters are being asked to reset the republic. Expectations are immense: political stability, economic recovery, relief from inflation, and restored public security.

When the high voltage electioneering ended on Tuesday morning, the contest crystallised into a direct duel between two men, Tarique Rahman of the BNP and Shafiqur Rahman of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. Former allies, their parties now stand as uncompromising rivals in a battle of thrones that has become a zero-sum struggle for state power.

The one time allies have now turned into bitter rivals in Bangladesh's most important election being held in the same old political landscape where winning is not everything, it is the only thing. That is why the phrases "zero sum game" and "winner takes all" are frequently used to define this electoral politics. In Bangladesh's confrontational political culture, elections are rarely about accommodation. Since the restoration of parliamentary democracy in 1991, politics has revolved around winner-takes-all competition. This time is no different. Even before ballots are cast, one Rahman will emerge empowered; the other will lead the opposition.

Tarique's return

Tarique Rahman, 60, returned to Dhaka on 25 December after 17 years in London exile, stepping into leadership following Khaleda Zia's death. His mission is clear: restore the BNP to power after nearly two decades.

He is contesting from Dhaka-17 and Bogura-6 in his electoral debut. A BNP victory would make him prime minister; defeat would position him as leader of the opposition. International media and several domestic surveys, though their credibility remains debated, have projected him as the frontrunner.

Over 20 days of official campaigning, Tarique addressed dozens of rallies nationwide, promising family assistance cards, job creation, improved law and order, and economic stabilisation.

Jamaat's moment of opportunity

For Shafiqur Rahman, 67, this election is both redemption and opportunity. He failed to win parliamentary seats in 2001 and 2018. In 2001, despite a BNP-led landslide, he finished a distant third in Moulvibazar-2 with just over 7% of the vote with his party's electoral symbol "scale". The battle was fought between a pro-BNP independent, who won bagging 78,667 votes – 45.50% of total votes cast, and the AL candidate, 71,803 votes – 41.53%. Shafiqur performed miserably, bagging only 12,415. In 2018, contesting under the BNP's symbol after Jamaat lost registration, he again fell short. In this race, Shafiqur contested with the electoral symbol of "sheaf of paddy", electoral symbol of the BNP. Then a key partner of the BNP-led alliance, Jamaat's Shaifqur contested from Dhaka-15 constituency. This time he managed to keep his deposit, but lost in the polls known as the "midnight election".

Today's political landscape is radically different. With the Awami League barred from contesting, Jamaat senses historic space to expand. If Shafiqur wins Dhaka-15, it will be his first entry into parliament. If Jamaat wins nationally, he becomes prime minister, a prospect once unimaginable for the party.

Even short of victory, Jamaat could secure its strongest parliamentary presence ever, potentially emerging as the principal opposition force.

Fever pitch campaign

In the final countdown to the election, the nationwide hectic electioneering of Tarique and Shafiqur for their parties reached a fever pitch.

They both toured tirelessly on the campaign trail for the last 20 days since electioneering officially began on 22 January.

Tarique, who formally launched his election campaign from Sylhet, undertook seven campaign tours across the country, addressing around 30 public rallies in 26 districts. He spoke at more than 20 rallies in Dhaka. At the rallies, he outlined his party's key election pledges, including family assistance cards, job creation, and improved law and order if the BNP forms the next government.

His rival Shafiqur, who formally launched electioneering from his Dhaka constituency, addresses 60 rallies in 20 days, stresses welfare state free from corruption and extortion, and issues like women's safety.

The battle of ballots

The intensity of competition between them has already made the February election feel far from "brotherly". Now they are passing nerve-wracking moments along with their fervid supporters to win the battle. In this game, Jamaat is largely free from infighting while the BNP is struggling to minimise the risk from nearly four dozen party dissenters who are contesting as independent candidates against those nominated by the party or alliance.

Like before, the money, muscle power and use of religion dominated the electioneering amid the weak enforcement of election laws by the Election Commission. An unwarranted decline in participation of women candidates, who were in the forefront in the July uprising, triggered outcry. The flipside tells a different story. Participation of Islamist parties' candidates reached its highest ever level.

Amidst many odds, one thing is positive that the election is finally being held, ending one and a half years of uncertainty and insecurity. But many still are not certain about the quality of the election. Fear of violence still runs high in the public mind though a blanket security measure is now in place. Even the police chief aired security concerns, categorising more than half of the country's 42,779 polling centres as risky and moderately risky. Therefore, uncertainties remain over what kind of election it will be. The scepticism about a fair election grew bigger, overshadowing the chief adviser's expectation of holding "best ever and historic" election.

BNP or Jamaat?

Can Shafiqur-lead Jamaat win the battle defeating Tarique who is leading the BNP that won elections thrice after restoration of democracy in 1991? Jamaat does not have any such record.

Electoral performance in the past elections offered little hope for Jamaat in the February election. In the previous four elections held since 1991 under non-partisan caretaker governments and widely recognised as free and fair elections, the AL and its archrival BNP each won two of them.

The BNP won 1991 and 2001 while the AL won in 1996 and 2008. No other political party came close to the election performance of either the AL or the BNP in terms of number of votes and seats.

Jatiyo Party and Jamaat could never emerge as a potential threat to either AL or BNP. Jatiyo Party stood third while Jamaat was always in fourth position.

After the fall of Ershad in 1990, Jatiyo Party got the taste of power thanks to the AL, while Jamaat, once in 2001, formed an alliance with the BNP. The then two top leaders of Jamaat – Matiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed who were executed during the Hasina government on charge of committing crimes against humanity during the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971 – were ministers of the cabinet led by Khaleda Zia.

One of the two major contenders for power, the AL, is absent in the race, and the race is supposed to be one-sided in favour of the BNP, at least theoretically. Of the four free and fair elections, the AL contested alone in the June 1996 and 2001 elections, and bagged 37.44% and 40.13% of the votes cast in those two elections respectively. Its rival BNP contested alone in 1991 and 1996 elections and bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of the votes cast in the two elections respectively.

One thing common in both parties' election performance is that the percentage point of votes increased in subsequent elections, compared to the earlier one that took them to power.

The AL won the 1996 election and lost in 2001. The BNP won in 1991, but lost in 1996. Both parties saw their share of vote increase in the elections they lost.

Of the two other elections – 2001 and 2008 – won by BNP and AL respectively, they formed alliances with others. In the 2001 election, BNP formed an alliance with Jamaat, a faction of Jatiyo Party and Islami Oikya Jote.

AL formed an alliance with Jatiyo Party and some other parties, such as Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal, in the 2008 election.

Both AL and BNP gave up some seats for their partners. In the other seats where AL and BNP candidates contested, they received votes from the vote bank of their alliance partners.

The real strength of the two parties were reflected in the elections they contested without forming an alliance.

If those results are taken into consideration, the AL has a vote bank of roughly 37% to 40% voters, going by their 1996 and 2001 elections performance. Its archrival BNP bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of votes cast in 1991 and 1996 elections respectively. The data shows the two parties together hold more than 70% of the votes.

Of the four credible elections held under a non-partisan government, Jamaat alone contested first two of them – in 1991 and 1996 – and other two under the BNP led alliance in 2001 and 2008. In the 1991 election, Jamaat bagged 18 seats having 12.13% vote while it performed worse in 1996 when it secured only 3 seats and vote declined to 8.61%. By joining the BNP-led alliance, Jamaat enjoyed BNP's support and obtained 17 seats in the 2001 election and only 2 seats in the 2008 elections. In the last two elections, its real support was not reflected as it could not field candidates in all constituencies.

The record, therefore, is not inspiring for Jamaat. But the political reality on the ground has made the party upbeat. The fall of Hasina regime and her exile in India and subsequent ban on Awami League's activities that disqualified the party from contesting the polls created the fertile ground for Jamaat to chase the big dream – to go to state power.

The landslide victory of Islamic Chhatra Shibir in student union elections in public universities – Dhaka, Chottogram, Rajshahi, Jahangirnagar and more – last year boosted the morale of Jamaat-e-Islami. The party has been projecting the win of Chhatra Shibir, Jamaat's student's organisation, as the mandate of the youths – aged between 18 to 37 – who constitute more than 40% of the total voters.

The humiliating defeat of Bangladesh Chhatra Dal to Chhatra Shibir in those elections came as a big blow to young supporters of the BNP though the party's senior leaders on several occasions claimed that the outcomes of the student unions election would not have any impact on the parliamentary election.

Much may depend on former Awami League voters. If they engage in strategic voting, they could tilt the balance. Both camps have courted them aggressively.

Battle of alliances

All potentials of any surprising rise of a political force other than BNP and Jamaat to upset the game faded away as most of the other small parties took refuge either in BNP's camp or in Jamaat's with the hope for the only thing – a win-in the electoral battle.

Even the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by a group of student leaders who were at the forefront in the July uprising against the Hasina regime, did not stand alone with its political manifesto to rise as new political force outside of the landscape of the traditional political parties and to carry the "spirit" of the July uprising. Abandoning their declared mission and vision, they tied knot with Jamaat-e-Islami and are contesting the election under the Jamaat-led alliance. Jamaat left only 30 seats for the NCP to field candidates with support of the Jamaat-led alliance.

So, there is no dark horse to emerge at the end of the day to challenge either BNP or Jamaat. If Jatiyo Party can manage to win some seats in its traditional stronghold in northern districts of Rangpur division, for sure, it may have to compete with NCP to grab the third position – a place that was always left for Jamaat in the previous four credible elections.

The economy's verdict

Beyond personalities, the election carries economic urgency. Bangladesh faces stagnant investment, high inflation, rising poverty, job scarcity, and a banking sector burdened with defaulted loans. Growth has slowed under cumulative structural strain.

Business leaders and economists agree on one point: political legitimacy is a prerequisite for recovery. Investment will depend not merely on a change of government but on confidence in the electoral process itself.

A credible election could restore stability. A disputed one could prolong uncertainty.

Ultimately, Bangladesh's challenge extends beyond who wins the throne. The deeper test is whether this transition can build durable institutions – ones strong enough to accommodate political competition while maintaining economic continuity.

On Thursday, voters decide between two Rahmans. But the larger question is whether the system itself emerges strengthened from the contest.