BNP or Jamaat? Looking back at records
Former allies, the two parties now stand as uncompromising rivals in a battle for the throne that has become a zero-sum struggle for state power
As the nation heads to the 13th national polls tomorrow (12 February), the contest crystallises into a direct duel between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.
Former allies, the two parties now stand as uncompromising rivals in a battle for the throne that has become a zero-sum struggle for state power.
Can Shafiqur-lead Jamaat win the battle defeating Tarique who is leading the BNP that won elections thrice after restoration of democracy in 1991? Jamaat, however, does not have any such record.
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Electoral performance in the past elections offered little hope for Jamaat in the February election. In the previous four elections held since 1991 under non-partisan caretaker governments and widely recognised as free and fair elections, the AL and its archrival BNP each won two of them.
The BNP won 1991 and 2001 while the AL won in 1996 and 2008. No other political party came close to the election performance of either the AL or the BNP in terms of number of votes and seats.
Jatiyo Party and Jamaat could never emerge as a potential threat to either AL or BNP. Jatiyo Party stood third while Jamaat was always in fourth position.
After the fall of Ershad in 1990, Jatiyo Party got the taste of power thanks to the AL, while Jamaat, once in 2001, formed an alliance with the BNP. The then two top leaders of Jamaat – Matiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed who were executed during the Hasina government on charge of committing crimes against humanity during the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971 – were ministers of the cabinet led by Khaleda Zia.
One of the two major contenders for power, the AL, is absent in the race, and the race is supposed to be one-sided in favour of the BNP, at least theoretically. Of the four free and fair elections, the AL contested alone in the June 1996 and 2001 elections, and bagged 37.44% and 40.13% of the votes cast in those two elections respectively. Its rival BNP contested alone in 1991 and 1996 elections and bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of the votes cast in the two elections respectively.
One thing common in both parties' election performance is that the percentage point of votes increased in subsequent elections, compared to the earlier one that took them to power.
The AL won the 1996 election and lost in 2001. The BNP won in 1991, but lost in 1996. Both parties saw their share of vote increase in the elections they lost.
Of the two other elections – 2001 and 2008 – won by BNP and AL respectively, they formed alliances with others. In the 2001 election, BNP formed an alliance with Jamaat, a faction of Jatiyo Party and Islami Oikya Jote.
AL formed an alliance with Jatiyo Party and some other parties, such as Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal, in the 2008 election.
Both AL and BNP gave up some seats for their partners. In the other seats where AL and BNP candidates contested, they received votes from the vote bank of their alliance partners.
The real strength of the two parties were reflected in the elections they contested without forming an alliance.
If those results are taken into consideration, the AL has a vote bank of roughly 37% to 40% voters, going by their 1996 and 2001 elections performance. Its archrival BNP bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of votes cast in 1991 and 1996 elections respectively. The data shows the two parties together hold more than 70% of the votes.
Of the four credible elections held under a non-partisan government, Jamaat alone contested first two of them – in 1991 and 1996 – and other two under the BNP led alliance in 2001 and 2008. In the 1991 election, Jamaat bagged 18 seats having 12.13% vote while it performed worse in 1996 when it secured only 3 seats and vote declined to 8.61%. By joining the BNP-led alliance, Jamaat enjoyed BNP's support and obtained 17 seats in the 2001 election and only 2 seats in the 2008 elections. In the last two elections, its real support was not reflected as it could not field candidates in all constituencies.
The record, therefore, is not inspiring for Jamaat. But the political reality on the ground has made the party upbeat. The fall of Hasina regime and her exile in India and subsequent ban on Awami League's activities that disqualified the party from contesting the polls created the fertile ground for Jamaat to chase the big dream – to go to state power.
The landslide victory of Islamic Chhatra Shibir in student union elections in public universities – Dhaka, Chottogram, Rajshahi, Jahangirnagar and more – last year boosted the morale of Jamaat-e-Islami. The party has been projecting the win of Chhatra Shibir, Jamaat's student's organisation, as the mandate of the youths – aged between 18 to 37 – who constitute more than 40% of the total voters.
The humiliating defeat of Bangladesh Chhatra Dal to Chhatra Shibir in those elections came as a big blow to young supporters of the BNP though the party's senior leaders on several occasions claimed that the outcomes of the student unions election would not have any impact on the parliamentary election.
Much may depend on former Awami League voters. If they engage in strategic voting, they could tilt the balance. Both camps have courted them aggressively.
Battle of alliances
All potentials of any surprising rise of a political force other than BNP and Jamaat to upset the game faded away as most of the other small parties took refuge either in BNP's camp or in Jamaat's with the hope for the only thing – a win-in the electoral battle.
Even the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by a group of student leaders who were at the forefront in the July uprising against the Hasina regime, did not stand alone with its political manifesto to rise as new political force outside of the landscape of the traditional political parties and to carry the "spirit" of the July uprising. Abandoning their declared mission and vision, they tied knot with Jamaat-e-Islami and are contesting the election under the Jamaat-led alliance. Jamaat left only 30 seats for the NCP to field candidates with support of the Jamaat-led alliance.
So, there is no dark horse to emerge at the end of the day to challenge either BNP or Jamaat.
If Jatiyo Party can manage to win some seats in its traditional stronghold in northern districts of Rangpur division, for sure, it may have to compete with NCP to grab the third position – a place that was always left for Jamaat in the previous four credible elections.
