BNP, Jamaat scramble to woo Awami League supporters

As the 13th National Election approaches, candidates from both the BNP-led alliance and the Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party bloc are increasingly shaping campaigns around local political equations, aiming to attract voters traditionally aligned with the Awami League, as the party's organisational activities remain suspended. 

Although the Awami League has formally called for a boycott through social media posts, including an audio message from party chief Sheikh Hasina, reports suggest that local leaders and activists are still engaging in constituency-level electoral activities. Since the party's fall on 5 August 2024, many grassroots leaders have faced cases related to the July violence, with thousands named in some areas, and many remaining out of sight, leaving space for rival camps to quietly negotiate their support.

In one northern seat, a Jubo League leader accused in multiple cases participated in BNP campaign activities, telling The Business Standard off the record that the BNP candidate encouraged him to mobilise voters with assurances of protection from police action.

The same constituency is witnessing a close fight between the Sheaf of Paddy and the Scales symbols, with Jamaat reportedly pulling out all stops to court Awami League voters. At least three union-level Awami League presidents have secured anticipatory bail from the High Court with support from local Jamaat leaders. Though not openly campaigning, they remain quietly active behind the scenes, a local Awami League leader admitted. 

Senior Awami League figures insist there is no central directive to participate, though one organising secretary abroad noted many supporters may vote according to "local political realities."

In Thakurgaon, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir framed the race as a straight contest, urging former Awami League voters to rally behind the BNP. 

Jamaat candidates have cast their net in the same waters, seeking "boat" votes by incorporating Awami League leaders into their fold. On 5 February, in Cumilla-11, a local Awami League leader delivered a speech and asked vote for Jamaat at a rally for the party's Nayeb-e-Ameer and candidate Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher.

The Awami League leader in question is Salauddin Ahmed Majumdar, president of the Kalikapur Union unit of the party. He was elected chairman of the Union Parishad, contesting from the party, but was removed from the post following the July Uprising.

Analysts say both alliances are trying to integrate the Awami League's base to bolster turnout and legitimacy. Badiul Alam Majumdar of Shujan described this as normal electoral competition but warned that certain assurances could cross ethical lines.

A survey by US-based advocacy group Socchar on 7 February suggested 37.9% of Awami League voters may lean toward BNP, while 37% could favour Jamaat. However, a constitutional expert and senior lawyer told TBS that opinion surveys rarely prove even nearly accurate in the Bangladeshi electoral context. 

"Many Awami League leaders are in hiding, but not all. Those in their localities are likely to vote, and their support will play a significant role in determining victories across constituencies," he said.