Who are the pollsters behind pre-election surveys?  

Illustration: TBS

The majority of recent opinion polls conducted by consulting firms, research organisations and think tanks suggests a shifting political landscape ahead of Bangladesh's upcoming parliamentary elections, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) emerging as the frontrunner in the 13th national election. 

However, the margin with its rival Jamaat-e-Islami differs wildly from survey to survey, with some even pointing to a victory for the party over BNP. 

The surveys, released between January and February 2026, have gained much attention, but their methodology and sample size are often questioned by political actors. And there have been claims of some of the pollster firms being aligned with certain political parties. 

Furthermore, four of the research firms involved in these surveys started running such polls only after the July Uprising. 

Innovision Consulting

Innovision Consulting published the results of the third round of its People's Election Pulse Survey (PEPS) on 30 January 2026, which indicated a strengthening of public support for the BNP as the election approaches.

According to the survey, more than 47% of respondents now see BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman as the next potential prime minister. The findings also show that the party is attracting support from voters who previously backed Jamaat-e-Islami, the National Citizen Party (NCP), and even the banned Awami League. 

Among respondents, 52.9% said BNP candidates would be likely to win in their constituencies if elections were held immediately — an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the previous round.

The third round of PEPS was conducted between 16 and 27 January through telephone interviews with 5,147 respondents across all 64 districts. The survey revisited participants from the first two rounds, conducted in February–March 2025 and September 2025, in order to track shifts in political attitudes. Respondents were asked about voter turnout, voting intentions, law and order, perceptions of electoral fairness, and party preference.

According to its website, Innovision is an international advisory and management consulting firm working on the transformation of trade, investment, finance and socio-economic systems. It provides research, technical assistance and project management services to governments, private sector actors, multilateral organisations and civil society across regions, with a focus on inclusive markets and shared prosperity. 

The PEPS survey, according to Innovision, is funded, designed and administered by Innovision, with technical support from the Bangladesh Research Analysis & Information Network (BRAIN) and Voice for Reform.

Md Rubaiyath Sarwar, managing director of Innovision Consulting, said the firm entered opinion polling from a strategy consulting perspective. "We are a management consulting firm specialising in economic and social development, research and project implementation. We are one of the largest such firms in Bangladesh and among the more significant players globally. We work both as an agency and as a regular consulting firm for governments and international partners, including the US, UK, Swiss and Dutch governments," he said.

He added that Innovision's decision to launch public opinion polling was shaped by its research capacity and experience during the July movement. "We felt Bangladesh needed to move towards data-driven political decision-making, similar to advanced economies," Sarwar said.

Sarwar added that the People's Election Pulse Survey was fully owned and funded by Innovision. "The concept, funding and product ownership were entirely ours. We brought in political scientists and analysts, including those associated with BRAIN and Voice for Reform, for technical input, but this was our own product. We did not take money from political actors or donors, as that would compromise neutrality. The survey was funded from our own revenues."

BRAIN gained attention after the July Uprising by contributing to civil discourse and reform dialogues, often organising events with the Nagorik Coalition and Voice for Reform. Although it was formed in early 2023, it was mostly restricted to the virtual space up till the July Uprising. 

Rumi Ahmed Khan is the convenor of BRAIN. Among the executive members are political scientist Shafiqur Rahman, Sadique Mahmood, entrepreneur Israfil Khosru, media personality Zahed Ur Rahman, US-based lawyer Ehteshamul Haque, Rubaiyath Sarwar, and economist Jyoti Rahman. 

Voice for Reform was launched on 17 September 2024. Among the co-conveners of the platform are founder of Drik Gallery Shahidul Alam, Anti-Discrimination Students Movement's Nazifa Jannat, Shahinur Shumi, and Masud Rana; tech entrepreneur Fahim Mashroor; lawyer Manzur Al Matin; publisher Mahrukh Mohiuddin; rights activist Muktasree Chakma; media specialist Sayyied Kabir; satirist Simu Naser; political activist Syed Hasibuddin Hossain; and labour rights activist Ruhul Amin.  

Eminence Associates for Social Development

On 9 February 2026, Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) released the findings of a nationwide field survey. 

The survey, based on the opinions of 41,500 people, found that the BNP-led alliance can win about 208 seats in the election, while the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance can win 46 seats. In addition, the Jatiya Party can win three seats, other parties can win four seats, and independent candidates can win 17 seats, according to the survey.

They conducted another survey in January, showing that 70% of respondents intend to vote for the BNP in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

According to their website, Eminence is a not-for-profit organisation working in health, nutrition, education, climate change, governance, poverty alleviation, food security and human rights. It focuses heavily on policy advocacy and envisions a participatory and equitable society, particularly in healthcare and education.

Shamim Hayder Talukdar, CEO of Eminence Associates for Social Development, said the organisation's involvement in opinion polling was rooted in its long-standing work in public policy. "We have been operating since 2003 and have conducted opinion polls before. Our primary focus areas are public health and policy advocacy," he said.

"We work extensively in health, urban development, nutrition and environmental issues. Since these sectors intersect at the policy level, policy advocacy is a natural extension of our work," he added.

On funding, Talukdar said the survey was independently conducted. "We conducted this survey ourselves. There was no donor involvement. The project was fully self-funded."

Upon visiting their website, TBS found mentions of some projects on public health and research, but no experience on political research. 

International Institute of Law and Diplomacy

The International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) published its survey findings on 9 February 2026, projecting a closely contested election in terms of vote share. According to the survey, 44.1% of respondents said they would vote for the BNP-supported alliance, while 43.9% would support the Jamaat-backed alliance.

However, IILD's constituency-level projections suggest that the Jamaat-supported alliance could secure more seats despite the marginal difference in vote share. The think tank projects that BNP-aligned candidates would win 101 seats, while Jamaat-aligned candidates could secure 105 seats.

The survey was conducted over 16 days, from 21 January to 5 February, with support from Projection BD and Jagaran Foundation.

The surveys, released between January and February 2026, have gained much attention, but their methodology and sample size are often questioned by political actors. And there have been claims of some of the pollster firms being aligned with certain political parties.

According to its Facebook page, IILD is a Bangladesh-based, youth-led think tank focused on research-driven policy formulation, governance, justice and international diplomacy. The organisation aims to train future leaders, conduct objective research, and contribute to policy mechanisms for inclusive governance.

The Executive Director of IILD, Shafiul Alam Shahin said, "We began our journey in 2022. Our operations are Bangladesh-based. For the survey, we collaborated with Projection BD and Jagaran Foundation. All of the technical expertise and funding for the survey has been contributed by the three organisations." 

The think-tank's website appeared non-functional at the time of writing the article. One of its partner organisations, Projection BD, has a Facebook page of 10 followers and no website. 

Communication and Research Foundation

On 4 February 2026, the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) released a nationwide survey highlighting significant voter realignment, particularly among former Awami League supporters. 

The survey found that 48.2% of those who previously voted for the Awami League now intend to vote for the BNP, while 29.9% prefer Jamaat-e-Islami. Smaller shares expressed support for the NCP or other parties, and 2.4% remained undecided.

The survey also revealed distinct preferences among first-time voters since 2008. Among this group, 37.4% said they would vote for Jamaat-e-Islami, 27% for the BNP, and 17% for the NCP, a figure widely circulated to show the party's popularity among youth voters. 

Conducted jointly by CRF and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies, the survey covered 11,038 respondents using stratified random sampling. Data was collected in two phases between 20 November and 31 December 2025.

CRF is an independent organisation working at the intersection of media monitoring, narrative research and media literacy, with a focus on strengthening democratic participation through evidence-based communication. The findings were presented at the Jatiya Press Club by CRF strategic coordinator Zakaria Palash. 

Upon visiting their website, only the survey result's presentation could be found as their portfolio, apart from a meeting with the representative of the EU Election Observation Mission. 

TBS contacted the foundation through an email address mentioned on their website, but till the filing of this report, we received no response. No online presence of their collaborating organisation, Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies, could be found. 

Shadique Mahbub Islam is a journalist.