Yes or No: Voters to decide fate of July Charter
Critics say voters may find it difficult to understand the four questions on the referendum ballot. Uncertainty remains over whether rural voters are aware of the consequences of choosing “Yes” or “No”
Other than BNP chairman Tarique Rahman and Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, Thursday's "festival of democracy" is also a nerve-wracking moment for the interim government led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, as its stakes are high in the referendum being held alongside the general election.
The government has campaigned extensively for a "Yes" vote in the referendum on implementing the July Charter, which contains 48 constitutional reform proposals. A "Yes" victory would place the next parliament under an obligation to carry out the reforms.
Under a provision of the July Charter implementation order, the new parliament will also function as a constituent council to approve a package of reform proposals aimed at making major constitutional changes.
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According to the government, 47 of the 84 proposals require constitutional amendments, while the remaining 37 will be implemented through laws or executive orders.
The proposed reforms include fundamental issues, including redefining the basic principles of the state, rebalancing power between the prime minister and the president, introducing a bicameral legislature, and strengthening the opposition bench.
Other key proposals include limiting a prime minister's tenure to no more than 10 years, regardless of the number of terms, and preventing the prime minister from simultaneously holding the post of party chief.
Govt needs decisive 'Yes' victory
Reform was one of the interim government's three top agendas, alongside the trial of those accused in the July massacre and holding elections. However, the entire agenda could come to nought if voters opt for "No". Even a simple "Yes" victory may not be enough. The government needs a decisive win with a large voter turnout.
Long before the announcement of holding the election and referendum on the same day, the plan drew criticism and controversy, with opponents describing it as a binary vote on a complex charter.
Critics say voters may find it difficult to understand the four questions on the referendum ballot. Uncertainty remains over whether rural voters are aware of the consequences of choosing "Yes" or "No".
In its efforts to mobilise support for a "Yes" vote, the interim government also involved public servants, triggering controversy over the legality of the move.
At the end of January, the Election Commission ordered government officials to refrain from taking sides in the referendum, warning that doing so would be a punishable offence.
Parties split on referendum
Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP) formally launched campaigns for a "Yes" vote, while the BNP remained silent for a long time, citing dissent over several key reform proposals excluded from the referendum ballot.
After a week of electioneering for the parliamentary polls, BNP chief Tarique Rahman urged voters to support reforms by voting "Yes", alongside casting their ballots for the "sheaf of paddy" symbol.
Rural apathy, turnout concerns
Voters in rural Bangladesh appear less enthusiastic about the referendum than about the general election. Parliamentary candidates in most areas have focused mainly on securing their own victories.
Some political analysts predict that turnout in the referendum may be lower than participation in the national election.
Past referendums
Voter turnout in the first two referendums held under martial law – in 1977 and 1985 – was far higher than in the 1991 vote conducted after the restoration of democracy.
In 1977, turnout stood at 88.05%, with about 99% voting "Yes". Voters were asked a single question: 'Do you have confidence in President Major General Ziaur Rahman and the policies and actions he pursued?'
The second referendum, held in 1985, recorded a turnout of 72.44%, with 94.11% voting "Yes". It posed a similar question: "Do you have confidence in the policies and programmes pursued by President Lieutenant General Hussain Muhammad Ershad and do you agree to his continuing as President until elections are held in accordance with the suspended constitution?"
The credibility of both referendums has been widely questioned.
In 1991, voters were asked whether the president should give assent to the Constitution (Twelfth Amendment) Bill, 1991, which would restore parliamentary democracy in place of the presidential system.
That referendum, held in September 1991 following the parliamentary election earlier in the year, recorded a low turnout of just 35.2%, with 84.38% voting "Yes".
But this time voters have been asked four complicated questions in the second ballot for referendum with only option to say either "Yes" or "No". People will determine the fate of the trio – Tarique, Shafiqur and Yunus – in two separate ballots.
Last but not the least, the chief adviser led the national consensus commission that drafted the proposals for the July Charter by holding a series of consultation meetings for months that ended at the end of October last without reaching a consensus on the proposed reforms. Then the chief adviser appointed Prof Ali Reaz, who was vice chair of the national consensus commission, as his special assistant with the status of an adviser. He spearheaded around a month of massive campaign for "Yes" vote, engaging the full government machineries. After a month, the EC woke up and warned the government officials not to take any side in the referendum. So, only a big win in the referendum will save the day for the interim government.
