Tarique Rahman's homecoming: A view from India

BNP's Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman's return to Bangladesh, ending more than 17 years of exile in London, has been prominently covered by the Indian media, with a section of it describing his homecoming as a "potentially game-changing political moment."

There is wide acknowledgement in Indian official and political circles that Tarique will lead the party in the 12 February national elections and is tipped to be the prime minister if the party is voted back to power.

But questions remain if Tarique can match the charisma of his ailing mother, Khaleda Zia and will his organisational ability be enough to pull the BNP?   

The most keenly debated question in India is: how will Tarique's return to Bangladesh politics impact that country's relations with India in the backdrop of BNP's traditional "anti-India" stand. 

Citing BNP sources, The Times of India said Tarique Rahman's return "is seen as a long-awaited development and is expected to usher in a new chapter in the BNP's political journey."

ABP English website said, "Bangladesh is set to witness a potentially game-changing political moment on Tuesday as Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and heir to the influential Zia family, returns home after nearly 17 years in exile in London."

"His return is poised to reshape domestic politics and could also redefine Dhaka's foreign policy equations in the months ahead," it added.

The Indian media made it a point to note that a survey by the US-based International Republican Institute in December suggests the BNP is on course to win the largest number of parliamentary seats, ahead of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, also in the race.

The media also pointed out that Tarique went into exile in 2008 amid multiple "criminal convictions" in Bangladesh, including alleged money laundering and charges linked to an alleged plot to assassinate the then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

It also did not forget to recall that over the past year, Bangladesh's higher courts have acquitted Tarique in all major cases, including the 2004 grenade attack and the Zia Orphanage Trust graft case, clearing legal hurdles to his political return.

In BNP's possible return to power and Tarique's return home, Indian policymakers see both risks and opportunities.

The BNP criticised India for sheltering Hasina, and Tarique said New Delhi risks alienating the people of Bangladesh by doing so.

BNP's return to power could further strain ties with India, given the party's historically "closer relations" with Pakistan, in contrast to Hasina's pro-India stance that included security cooperation to crack down on cross-border north eastern Indian insurgents and extremist networks.

However, the ABP English website said "recent signals suggest the possibility of a cautious reset between BNP and India, relying on two recent developments. One, it pointed out that earlier in December, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over Khaleda Zia's worsening health and offered all possible support."

"The BNP, in turn, quickly publicly welcomed the gesture and conveyed its 'sincere gratitude' to Modi. The exchange is seen by observers as a small but notable signal of thawing ties," it added.

"Indian officials may view a Rahman-led BNP as a more predictable, liberal and democratic alternative" in Bangladesh, it added.

Indian officials and politicians would like to temper any optimism, saying the BNP's earlier stints in power from 1991-1996 and from 2001-2006 saw India-Bangladesh ties "struggling."

They said that while one hears frequent calls from Bangladesh about India's need for adjusting to the current realities in that country, a more important question for New Delhi is: will a future BNP dispensation in Dhaka be able to make a break from its past policy towards India? Doesn't it take two to tango?  

According to Bangladesh watchers in India, BNP faces growing challenges from rising mob violence and the resurgence of "Islamist groups" in that country, which threaten to marginalise liberal democratic politics.

Attacks on religious sites and political offices, along with widespread public concern over mob violence in Bangladesh, highlight the risks confronting the BNP as it prepares for the elections.

Much will depend on how relations between BNP and Jamaat, and National Citizen Party (NCP) shape up in the run-up to the elections, Bangladesh observers said.