India-Pakistan ties collapse, Kashmir carnage risks military escalation

India-Pakistan relations hit rock bottom following Tuesday's (22 April) deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir, posing risks for Indian military escalation against Pakistan, analysts suggest.

On Wednesday (23 April), India accused Pakistan of supporting terrorist groups in the region, after a little-known militant group called The Resistance Front claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan has denied any involvement, reports agencies.

New Delhi has since downgraded ties with Islamabad, shut a key border crossing, and suspended for the first time its involvement in a crucial water-sharing treaty, among other punitive measures, triggering Pakistan to announce a host of retaliatory measures including the suspension of trade and the 1972 Simla Agreement. Both sides have cancelled visas of each others' nationals.

Issuing stern warning to the attackers, Indian PM Narendra Modi said, "We will pursue them to the ends of the earth," without referring to the attackers' identities or naming Pakistan.

"They have made the mistake of attacking the soul of India. I want to say clearly, that those who have planned and carried out this attack will be punished beyond their imagination," Modi said.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has vowed a "strong response," pledging action not just against the perpetrators but also the masterminds behind the "nefarious acts" on Indian soil.

The BBC, quoting analysts, reports that the question is not whether there will be a military response - but when, and how calibrated it will be, and at what cost.

"We are likely to see a strong response – one that signals resolve to both domestic audiences and actors in Pakistan. Since 2016 and especially after 2019, the threshold for retaliation has been set at cross-border or air strikes," military historian Srinath Raghavan told the BBC.

"It'll be hard for the government to act below that now. Pakistan will likely respond, as it did before. The risk, as always, is miscalculation – on both sides."

Hussain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, believes escalation is possible this time, with India likely to consider limited "surgical strikes" like in 2016.

"The advantage of such strikes from India's point of view is they are limited in scope, so Pakistan does not have to respond, and yet they demonstrate to the Indian public that India has acted," Haqqani, a senior fellow at Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy and Hudson Institute, told the BBC.

"But such strikes can also invite retaliation from Pakistan, which argues that it is being blamed in a knee jerk reaction, without any investigation or evidence."

Raghavan is alluding to two previous major retaliations by India in 2016 and 2019.

After the deadly Uri attack in September 2016, where 19 Indian soldiers were killed, India launched what it called "surgical strikes" across the de facto border - also known as the Line of Control (LoC) - targeting what it said were militant launch pads in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

And in 2019, after at least 40 paramilitary personnel were killed in Pulwama, India hit an alleged militant camp in Balakot with airstrikes - its first such strike deep inside Pakistan since 1971. Pakistan responded with air raids, leading to a dogfight and the brief capture of an Indian pilot. Both sides showed strength but avoided full-scale war.

Two years later, in 2021, they agreed to an LoC ceasefire, which has largely held - despite recurring militant attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, believes that the combination of high fatality levels and the targeting of Indian civilians in the latest attack "suggests a strong possibility of an Indian military response against Pakistan, if Delhi determines or merely assumes any level of Pakistani complicity".

"The chief advantage of such a reaction for India would be political, as there will be strong public pressure for India to respond forcefully," he told the BBC.

"Another advantage, if a retaliation successfully takes out terrorist targets, would be restoring deterrence and degrading an anti-India threat. The disadvantage is that a retaliation would risk a serious crisis and even conflict."

Retaliatory measures

Islamabad on Thursday (24 April) closed its air space for Indian airlines and rejected New Delhi's suspension of a critical water sharing treaty in retaliation for India's response on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Dawn reports that Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement and said it would close the Wagah Border with India.

The tit-for-tat announcements took relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours, who have fought three wars, to the lowest level in years.

Pakistan's response came hours after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed that "India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the Earth," reports BBC.

Reuters adds: New Delhi said there were cross-border elements to the attack and downgraded ties with Pakistan on Wednesday, suspending a 1960 treaty on sharing waters of the Indus River and closing the only land crossing between the neighbours.

Indian police published notices naming three suspects and saying two were Pakistanis, but New Delhi has not offered any proof of the links, or shared any more details.

They offered a reward of 2m rupees [$23,000; £17,600] for anyone offering information about any of the attackers.

India also reduced the number of diplomats in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad to 30 and asked Indian defence, naval and air advisers to leave Pakistan before 30 April.

Pakistan said it was closing its airspace to Indian-owned or operated airlines, suspending all trade including through third countries and halting special South Asian visas issued to Indian nationals.

"Pakistan shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to Simla Agreement in abeyance till India desists from its manifested behaviour of fomenting terrorism inside Pakistan," Pakistan's Prime Minister's office said in a statement.

The Simla Agreement was signed between the two countries and lays down principles meant to govern bilateral relations, including respect for a ceasefire line in Kashmir.

The water treaty, mediated by the World Bank, split the Indus River and its tributaries between the neighbours and regulated the sharing of water. It had so far withstood even wars between the neighbours.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on water flowing downstream from this river system from India for its hydropower and irrigation needs. Suspending the treaty would allow India to deny Pakistan its share of the waters.