From highs to lows: What are the inflation rates around the subcontinent?
According to the IMF, South Asia as a whole has been experiencing an overall decline in inflation since 2023 that will continue in 2025
Between 2023 and 2024 the Indian subcontinent experienced diverse inflationary trends influenced by food prices, currency fluctuations, and policy decisions.
Pakistan saw a dramatic fall in inflation last year, with Bhutan also following a similar downward trend. On the other hand Nepal and Bangladesh both dealt with heightened inflation that were above historical averages.
According the the International Monetary fund, inflation rates in South Asia at the beginning of 2024 were as follows; India at 4.4%, Bhutan at 4.6%, Nepal at .5.6%, Bangladesh at 9.7%, and Pakistan at 23.4% According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, the island nation started the year at 6.4% before declining rapidly, and moving into a negative inflation rate of -.5% in September when and falling even further to -2.1% in November.
Bangladesh
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Bangladesh saw its inflation rate fluctuating between 9.7% up to 11.38%, above its historical average. The year ended with inflation once again declining from 11.38% in November to 10.89% in December, primarily caused by the lowering of food and beverages prices.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka, much like Pakistan has beena story of great recovery from 2023 to 2024, even moving into negative inflation in September 2024. This trend has been attributed to reduced power tariffs and fuel prices, as well as an appreciated rupee.
India
India Started the 2024 at an inflation rate of 4.4%, but then saw a surge in inflation in September to 5.39%, leading to a 9-month high primarily driven by rising food prices. Vegetables in particular sat a 36% year-on-year increase.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected a 6.2% GDP growth for the October-December quarter, indicating strengthening domestic demand
Pakistan
Pakistan saw a massive fall in inflation in 2024, dropping from 23.4% at the beginning 2024 to 4.9% by November 2024. This dramatic fall is attributed mainly to a stable exchange rate, declining global commodity and energy prices, and tight monetary policies implemented by the State Bank of Pakistan
Bhutan
Bhutan saw another dramatic fall, from its peak inflation rate in March at 4.99% to its lowest in October at 1.34%.
This decline is mainly attributed to falling food prices, a slower increase in non-food costs, as well as a focus on following global trends aimed at easing inflation.
Nepal
At the start of 2024 the World Bank projected Nepal's inflation to remain high at 6.7%. This was primarily attributed to factors like the removal of VAT exemption and food import restrictions from India.
According to the IMF, South Asia as a whole has been experiencing an overall decline in inflation since 2023 that will continue in 2025. However this trend has been mainly a result of Pakistan's dramatic recovery and Bhutan's exceptionally low inflation rates, with Bangladesh seeing the greatest increase in inflation overall.
