Inflation drops to 8.17% in October, lowest in 39 months

Point-to-point inflation eased to 8.17% in October, down from 8.36% in September, according to the latest report released today (5 November) by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In the same month last year (October 2024), the rate stood at 10.87%.

This marks the lowest inflation in 39 months. The previous low was in July 2022, when inflation was 7.48%. Since then, the rate had climbed steadily, peaking at 11.66% in July 2024.

Infographic: TBS

BBS officials said that while food inflation fell in October, non-food inflation edged up slightly, affecting the overall figure.

According to BBS data, food inflation dropped to 7.08% in October 2025 — the lowest in 42 months — from 7.64% in September. The last time food inflation was lower was in April 2022, at 6.23%.

In contrast, non-food inflation rose to 9.13% from 8.98% in September. A year earlier, in October 2024, food inflation had been 12.66%, and non-food inflation 9.34%.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, explained the apparent contradiction between rising prices and falling annual inflation. 

"In October 2025, many households felt the pinch — rice, vegetables, and other essentials cost more than they did in September. The general price index rose by 1.89% in just one month. Food prices jumped by 2.7%, and even non-food items climbed by 1.21%. Yet, paradoxically, the official year-on-year inflation rate went down.

"How is that possible? It's all about the base effect. Last October, food prices had surged dramatically. So when we compare this October to that unusually high base, the increase looks smaller — even though prices are still rising. That's why year-on-year inflation fell, even as the cost of living continued to climb," he said.

"Think of it like climbing a hill. If last year you scaled a steep slope and this year the incline is gentler, you're still going uphill — but it feels easier. That's what the inflation numbers are telling us. The pace has slowed, but the direction hasn't changed," the economist added.

He further said that while the data are accurate, the "base effect softens the headline, but not the blow." Most consumers still face real hardship, and policymakers must address the root causes of persistent price pressures rather than be swayed by the temporary relief reflected in statistics.

Inflation trends: Rural vs urban

BBS data show that overall inflation fell in rural areas but slightly increased in urban areas. Food inflation declined across both, while non-food inflation crept upward.

In rural areas, general inflation stood at 8.16% in October, down from 8.47% in September and 11.26% a year ago.

Rural food inflation dropped to 6.94% (from 7.54%), but non-food inflation ticked up to 9.41% (from 9.40%).

In urban areas, inflation rose to 8.33% (up from 8.28% in September), compared with 10.44% last year.
Urban food inflation, on the other hand, eased to 7.45% (from 7.94%), while non-food inflation increased to 8.92% (from 8.51%).

Wages lag behind inflation for 44 consecutive months

The national wage growth rate stood at 8.01% in October 2025, nearly unchanged from 8.02% in September and 8.07% in October 2024 — marking the 44th straight month that wages have trailed inflation.

Wage growth by sector: agriculture – 8.17% (8.13% in September; 8.32% in Oct 2024), industry – 7.77% (7.83%; 7.69%), services – 8.19% (8.22%; 8.37%).

The BBS compiled the wage index from data collected across all 64 districts for October 2025.