Quebec separatists vowing independence vote win an election but fall short of majority

The separatist Parti Québécois won Quebec's provincial election on Monday (5 October) but fell short of enough seats to govern alone, returning to power with a promise to hold another referendum on independence from Canada.

The result returns Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party to power for the first time in more than a decade but denies it the majority it sought, forcing the separatists to rely on opposition parties even as they try to revive Quebec's independence debate.

The PQ will form a minority government, meaning it will need support from opposition lawmakers to pass key legislation and survive confidence votes. It fell short of the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec's 127-member National Assembly, the provincial legislature.

St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold another referendum on independence, though he has said he would wait until US President Donald Trump is no longer in office.

Coalition Avenir Québec leader Christine Fréchette conceded defeat, saying voters had made their choice and that she took full responsibility for the "difficult result". The CAQ, which held 79 seats before the election, was at risk of losing every seat in the legislature.

But the PQ's victory does not mean most Quebecers support leaving Canada.

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the victory reflects Quebec's multiparty system, where support is divided among several parties, rather than a surge in separatist sentiment.

Support for independence remains at about 30%, low by historical standards, he added.

Béland said the result should not be viewed as a rejection of Prime Minister Mark Carney, who remains very popular in Quebec.

Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and signalled that Ottawa would work with the incoming separatist government.

"Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," Carney said.

He said the two governments would work together to support businesses and workers affected by US tariffs, create jobs and build housing.

Still, Béland said a separatist government in Quebec poses a new national-unity challenge for Carney, particularly with another independence-related vote approaching elsewhere in Canada.

The Quebec result comes two weeks before Albertans vote 19 October on whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada.

"Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney," Béland said.

Quebec voters have twice rejected sovereignty, most recently by a razor-thin margin in a 1995 referendum.

Quebec, which is about 80% French-speaking, already has significant autonomy. The province of 9.1 million collects its own income tax, has immigration policies favouring French speakers and has laws giving the French language priority over English.

Even with the PQ victory, Trump's tariffs and 51st-state rhetoric have complicated the separatist argument by stirring Canadian nationalism and giving some French-speaking Quebecers another reason to value remaining part of Canada.

Trump's tariffs and repeated threats against Canada became a defining issue in the 2025 federal election, helping lift Carney's Liberals to victory after the party had trailed badly before Trump returned to office.