How an election-packed 2024 could swing world markets | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Friday
July 11, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
FRIDAY, JULY 11, 2025
How an election-packed 2024 could swing world markets

Global Economy

Reuters
10 January, 2024, 08:00 pm
Last modified: 11 January, 2024, 12:47 am

Related News

  • EC seeks restoration of authority to annul entire constituency election over irregularities
  • There’s no level playing field, can’t accept polls under these circumstances: Jamaat
  • Some people want to stay in power without election: Mirza Abbas
  • Ex-CEC Nurul Huda confesses to role in controversial 2018 national polls
  • Jamaat demands local government poll first

How an election-packed 2024 could swing world markets

Reuters
10 January, 2024, 08:00 pm
Last modified: 11 January, 2024, 12:47 am
A woman on a motorbike rides at a morning market in Taipei, Taiwan January 10, 2024. REUTERS/Ann Wang
A woman on a motorbike rides at a morning market in Taipei, Taiwan January 10, 2024. REUTERS/Ann Wang

Countries making up over 60% of the world's economic output and more than half of its population hold elections this year.

Markets face a "ballot box bombshell", financial services group Morningstar says, adding: "prior experience of this kind of event risk shows big changes can cause sell-offs".

Here's a look at the elections that matter for markets, in roughly chronological order for the coming year.

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

1/ TAIWAN

Date: Jan 13

Back story:

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is competing mainly with the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) for the presidency and legislature.

A DPP win would be the third consecutive victory for a party China calls separatist, potentially fuelling Beijing's determination to control Taiwan. The KMT traditionally favours closer ties with China but denies being pro-Beijing.

Market risks:

Taiwan is the main flashpoint in US-China tensions. Investors, fearing sharpened trade tariffs, have slashed China allocations.

A full-blown Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while seen as unlikely in 2024, would be a potentially catastrophic risk to global markets, including potentially halting advanced chip-making and wiping $1 trillion off annual global economic output, US officials said.

An unofficial maritime line of control separates China and Taiwan. China does not recognise the line, but neither side's aircraft or battleships normally cross it.

2/ EUROPE

Dates: March 10 (Portugal), June 9 (Belgium), June 6-9 (European Parliament), autumn/winter (Croatia), November (Romania), to be confirmed (Austria)

Back story:

November's shock win for Geert Wilders's Freedom Party in the Netherlands galvanized the Eurosceptic far-right. Its namesake leads Austria's polls. Portugal's Chega party's vote may double, though left parties lead there.

Crucially, far-right parties eye gains in the European Union's legislature, vowing to toughen migration policy and soften green reforms.

Market risks:

Italian stocks and bonds, Europe's top 2023 performers, may suffer if gains for eurosceptic parties are seen as weakening the commitment to European integration.

The EU raising joint debt to back the post-pandemic recovery has helped reduce the perceived riskiness of Italian debt.

With the EU parliament heavily involved in legislation and electing the next head of the bloc's executive, watch the readout on further support for Ukraine and climate policy.

3/ RUSSIA

Date: March 17

Back story:

Vladimir Putin, who was handed the presidency by Boris Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, is certain to win another six years in power. Polling shows Putin enjoys approval ratings of above 80% in Russia. Opposition politicians say the election is a carefully stage-managed imitation of democracy.

Key market risk:

In the campaign, Putin may reveal more of his thinking about the war in Ukraine. Putin has warned the West any attempts to meddle in the election will be considered an act of aggression.

Western governments such as the United States and Japan are considering seizing frozen Russian assets such as cash and government bonds held by its central bank overseas. Russia has said it will retaliate if that happens.

Russia's economy has been boosted by massive increases in defence spending on the war, though stubborn inflation fanned by a sharp rouble depreciation has forced interest rates higher.

4/ INDIA

Date: April-May, TBC

Back Story:

Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term as prime minister leading the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in national elections. Investors moving cash out of China have turned to India.

Key market risk:

Persistent inflation could hurt the BJP. Modi would need to form a coalition if it doesn't win an outright majority.

Key commodity exporter India has roiled markets by restricting rice, wheat and sugar exports. A shift back to fiscal populism risks pushing up India's fiscal deficit which would need funding from potentially record high domestic market borrowing.

5/ MEXICO

Date: June 2

Back story:

Presidential election will involve a full Congress reshuffle and nine state elections. Polls give incumbent National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party and its candidate, ex-Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, a wide double-digit lead.

A more balanced Congress preventing constitutional changes from populist Morena is anticipated. But given the success of current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's spending drives, Sheinbaum is expected to follow suit.

Key market risk:

Heftier spending could pull down Mexico's peso and hurt government bonds.

6/ SOUTH AFRICA

Date: May-August 2024 (TBC)

Back story:

The ruling African National Congress risks losing its parliamentary majority in elections for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994.

Economic turmoil, power cuts, austerity and graft allegations have alienated voters. The ANC may need to partner with the Democratic Alliance or the Marxist Economic Freedom.

Key market risk:

Pre-election, the government could ease austerity, pushing up debt. If the ANC allies with a leftist party, social spending could rise. Worries about a weak currency and public finances could slow down rate cuts.

Some two dozen emerging economies are scheduled to hold general elections in 2024.

7/ UNITED STATES

Date: Nov 5

Back story:

Donald Trump is predicted to win the Republican nomination in primaries in the coming months, setting the stage for a tight battle with Democrat incumbent Joe Biden - a rerun of the 2020 election that ended with a pro-Trump mob storming Congress in an attempt to block certification of Biden's victory.

Trump now faces criminal trials in four jurisdictions and an array of other legal cases, while he still claims falsely that the 2020 election was stolen. Biden calls his opponent a threat to democracy who would seek vengeance on his many foes if he regains power.

Market risks:

Markets shrugged off the violence that followed the election four years ago. But given the heated rhetoric on both sides this time around, a Trump-Biden rematch could still worry investors over the risk of social unrest.

A bitter election could affect consumer sentiment as the world's biggest economy seeks to avert a recession from the lagged effects of aggressive interest rate rises.

The dollar could swing on election probabilities.

Stocks could be hurt by caution over US-China tensions if the parties harness the popularity of trade barriers, with analysts saying higher tariffs would fuel inflation, force up the dollar and hurt the yuan, euro and Mexican peso.

Spending cut pledges by either party could upend a complex but popular US bonds trade that wagers government borrowing will increase. And watch oil: Trump favours more US drilling, which Biden has reined in.

8/ BRITAIN

Date: due by Jan 2025, expected by end-2024

Back Story:

The opposition Labour party under centre-left candidate Keir Starmer leads the ruling Conservatives in the polls.

Market risks:

Pre-election, a stagnant economy and tight fiscal budget mean government bonds could be unsettled by any surprise spending promises. A March 6 budget might well contain new tax cuts.

Labour plans to loosen planning rules, in a risk for house-builders and make targeted changes to tax rules which could hurt energy companies . It also wants closer relations with the European Union following Brexit, which could boost sterling.

9/ VENEZUELA

Date: 2024 TBC

Back Story:

Incumbent Nicolás Maduro has an advantage in presidential elections, with main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, banned from participating due to alleged crimes such as supporting US sanctions on Maduro's government and backing former opposition leader Juan Guaido.

Key Market Risk:

In October, the US lifted oil sanctions for six months and debt sanctions indefinitely , allowing US investors to trade in some bonds in exchange for talks to ensure fair and free elections.

Re-instated sanctions could shake Venezuelan stocks and bonds. Pricing deeply distressed, bonds more than doubled after sanctions were lifted. A possible debt restructuring is also in focus.

Top News / World+Biz / Politics

Emerging economies / Emerging markets / world markets / Elections

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Bangladesh's delegation, led by Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin, began high-level negotiations with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer at 9pm Bangladesh time on Thursday (10 July). Photo: Collected from the Facebook handle of Golam Mortoza, Press Minister at the Bangladesh Embassy in the US
    No need to worry as US tariff talks ongoing: Fouzul tells biz leaders
  • Economist Abul Barkat; Photo: Courtesy
    Economist Abul Barkat arrested in graft case
  • Representational image. Photo: Syed Zakir Hossain/TBS
    Explainer: Why SSC pass rate hit a 17-year low

MOST VIEWED

  • Graphics: TBS
    BB raises startup fund limit, drops upper age barrier
  • Workers pack undergarments at the packing section of a garment factory in Ashulia, on the outskirts of Dhaka, Bangladesh, April 19, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Fatima Tuj Johora
    After US tariffs, jobs hang by a thread in Bangladesh's garments sector
  • Photo: Mohammad Minhaj Uddin/TBS
    SSC, equivalent results: Pass rate drops to 68.45%, GPA-5 also declines
  • File photo of containers at Chattogram port/TBS
    US buyers push Bangladeshi exporters to share extra tariff costs
  • Govt vehicle purchase, foreign trip, new building construction banned: Finance ministry
    Govt vehicle purchase, foreign trip, new building construction banned: Finance ministry
  • Students sit for SSC exam at Motijheel Girls' High School on 10 April 2025. Photo: Mehedi Hasan/TBS
    SSC exam results out: Here's how you can check online and via SMS

Related News

  • EC seeks restoration of authority to annul entire constituency election over irregularities
  • There’s no level playing field, can’t accept polls under these circumstances: Jamaat
  • Some people want to stay in power without election: Mirza Abbas
  • Ex-CEC Nurul Huda confesses to role in controversial 2018 national polls
  • Jamaat demands local government poll first

Features

Photo: Collected/BBC

What Hitler’s tariff policy misfire can teach the modern world

5h | The Big Picture
Illustration: TBS

Behind closed doors: Why women in Bangladesh stay in abusive marriages

8h | Panorama
Purbachl’s 144-acre Sal forest is an essential part of the area’s biodiversity. Within it, 128 species of plants and 74 species of animals — many of them endangered — have been identified. Photo: Syed Zakir Hossain/TBS

A forest saved: Inside the restoration of Purbachal's last Sal grove

8h | Panorama
Photo: Rajib Dhar/TBS

11 July 2024: Riot vehicles, water cannons hit the streets as police crack down on protesters

1h | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

'Hypocrisy' will not continue, Iran tells IAEA

'Hypocrisy' will not continue, Iran tells IAEA

4h | TBS World
OpenAI to release web browser in challenge to Google Chrome

OpenAI to release web browser in challenge to Google Chrome

4h | TBS World
Will the title 'Honorable and Excellency' be abolished?

Will the title 'Honorable and Excellency' be abolished?

5h | TBS Today
July Declaration must be constitutionally recognized: Akhtar Hossain

July Declaration must be constitutionally recognized: Akhtar Hossain

4h | TBS Today
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net