Tarique Rahman and the remaking of the BNP after July

Bangladesh has been undergoing profound political, social, and cultural transformation since the Generation Z–led uprising of 5 August 2024. Over the past sixteen months, the interim government headed by Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has pursued wide-ranging constitutional and institutional reforms under the framework of the National Unity Commission.

Beyond state-level restructuring, deeper shifts are visible within society itself. A politically mobilised youth cohort has emerged as a key stakeholder in the reform process, while right-wing mobilisation has also gained momentum, reshaping the country's political landscape.

Against this backdrop, Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its next national election on 12 February 2026. Recent opinion surveys point to a decisive moment for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). A survey conducted by The Daily Prothom Alo found that 47% of respondents believe BNP Senior Vice President Tarique Rahman will be the next prime minister, while 19% expect former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia to return to office. Other surveys—by Innovision in partnership with Voice for Reform and BRAIN, and by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI)—place BNP support between 33 and 39%, suggesting a clear electoral advantage.

Tarique Rahman returned to Bangladesh on 25 December after seventeen years in exile in the United Kingdom. Five days later, on 30 December, his mother—BNP chairperson, former prime minister, and a central figure in Bangladesh's democratic movement—passed away. Her death marked the end of an era and placed the responsibility of party leadership squarely on Tarique Rahman, who is now poised to formally assume its helm.

Although Khaleda Zia remained party chair, Tarique Rahman has effectively led the BNP since 2018, when she was imprisoned in what many observers described as a politically motivated case. Since the July uprising, however, his political vision, ideological orientation, and national agenda have become more publicly articulated—and increasingly scrutinised.

One of the most significant shifts under Tarique Rahman's leadership occurred in 2018, when the BNP severed its nearly two-decade-long alliance with several smaller parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. The party subsequently joined a coordinated movement with centre-left and social-left forces against Sheikh Hasina's authoritarian rule. This repositioning marked a notable departure from the BNP's earlier alliances and suggests a gradual ideological shift from the centre towards the centre-left.

From 2001 to 2006, the BNP governed in coalition with Islamist parties, a legacy that long shaped perceptions of the party as a political shelter for religious forces. In the post-9/11 global context, the BNP was slow to decisively break from that structure. Under Tarique Rahman, however, the party has become more explicit in criticising the instrumentalisation of religion in politics and challenging misogynistic political norms.

In 2022, the BNP, under Tarique Rahman's leadership, unveiled a 31-point reform agenda in consultation with allied parties. The proposals included restoring a neutral caretaker government system, establishing an upper house of parliament, and rebalancing executive power between the president and the prime minister. Notably, many of these ideas have since been incorporated into the July Charter, which is expected to be placed before the next parliament.

The party has also pledged a range of social reforms centred on human resource development and service-oriented governance. These include commitments to strengthen the rule of law and human rights, establish a media commission, protect minority and labour rights, advance women's empowerment, improve education and healthcare, and adopt comprehensive policies to address environmental and climate challenges.

Tarique Rahman's public posture has also distinguished him from the immediate past. Shortly after the July Uprising, he remarked that he missed the political cartoons once drawn about him during the BNP's 2001–06 tenure, adding that he enjoys memes and satire. This openness stands in sharp contrast to the previous regime, under which cartoonist Ahmed Kabir Kishore was imprisoned and journalists and activists were detained under the Digital Security Act, often for minor online expression. After fifteen years of such repression, Rahman's tolerance for criticism has resonated strongly with Generation Z.

On 8 March, International Women's Day, Tarique Rahman wrote in a Facebook post that the most important people in his life are his mother, wife, and daughter, reaffirming his commitment to building an inclusive society for women. More recently, on his 61st birthday, he condemned cyber violence against women and pledged firm state action to ensure a women-friendly digital space. In a deeply patriarchal political culture, this rhetoric has attracted attention, particularly given that both his mother and daughter have been targets of misogynistic attacks.

Rahman frequently underscores the importance of institutionalised opposition in a democratic system. He has earned public praise for a restrained, courteous, and non-confrontational tone—an approach that contrasts with Bangladesh's historically polarised politics. Combined with his reformist messaging, this style has helped broaden his appeal, as reflected in opinion surveys.

Having spent seventeen years in the United Kingdom, Tarique Rahman has closely observed the functioning of a welfare-oriented state. Yet significant scepticism remains. Bangladeshi politics is replete with reform promises that failed at the stage of implementation. Whether Rahman can translate rhetoric into durable policy outcomes will determine the degree of trust civil society ultimately places in him.

At his first public meeting following his return, on 25 December, Rahman declared—echoing Martin Luther King Jr—that he had a plan for Bangladesh and its people. Barring unforeseen disruptions, the BNP is widely expected to win the upcoming election. However, should he assume office, the most difficult phase of his leadership will begin then.

Domestically, his challenges will include implementing the July Charter through parliament, managing relations with opposition forces, restoring law and order, and pursuing national reconciliation in a post-revolution environment. The anger and aspirations of July's youth remain potent, and integrating them into employment, governance, and state-building will be critical.

Ideological divisions, temporarily suspended during the anti-Hasina movement, have re-emerged. Unlike Khaleda Zia—who cultivated deep civil society networks and commanded broad personal authority—Tarique Rahman has spent much of the past eighteen years abroad. As a result, his influence beyond the party apparatus, particularly among non-partisan youth and civil society actors, remains comparatively limited.

Foreign policy is another area of close scrutiny. In Dhaka's diplomatic circles, questions persist about the orientation of a future Tarique Rahman–led government. Bangladesh's relations with the United States, China, and India remain central, while Japan, Turkey, and Pakistan have reasserted themselves as active stakeholders. Managing this complex geopolitical terrain—especially repairing strained ties with India—will be a formidable task.

Both Khaleda Zia and Ziaur Rahman were outspoken critics of what they termed India's "one-sided diplomacy." Ziaur Rahman championed Saarc, while Khaleda Zia pursued a "Look East" policy to diversify regional engagement. Today, however, Bangladesh is South Asia's second-largest economy, home to 180 million people, with a strategically vital maritime presence in the Bay of Bengal. Maintaining a balanced, pragmatic foreign policy will be essential for any future government led by Tarique Rahman.

Shahadat Shadhin is a journalist and researcher. He completed his MPhil and MA in International Relations from South Asian University, New Delhi.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.