Alongside applause, Bangladesh’s new climate pledge deserves global support

Illustration: TBS

So far, only about three dozen countries have submitted their new climate pledges, known as NDC 3.0, under the Paris Agreement. These are not just technical documents; they are moral and political statements of intent, showing how far nations are willing and able to go to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Among these few, Bangladesh's submission stands out. It is more comprehensive, data-driven, and inclusive than before, and it even puts a price tag on what its climate ambition will cost. Yet, while it marks real progress, it still falls short of the transformational shift needed to truly align with the 1.5°C goal.

A sharper, broader climate vision

Bangladesh's NDC 3.0 takes a whole-of-economy approach, covering energy, transport, agriculture, and industry. It uses 2022 as a baseline year and pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20.3% (418.4 MtCO₂e) by 2035. Of this, 6.4% (26.74 MtCO₂e) will be achieved through domestic efforts, while another 13.9% (58.23 MtCO₂e) will depend on international support.

In 2022, total emissions reached 252.04 MtCO₂e, with energy as the largest source (48.81%), followed by agriculture, forestry and land use (37.83%), waste (10.69%), and industry (2.67%).

That level of clarity is rare among developing countries. Bangladesh has also established a national system for measuring, reporting, and verifying (MRV) progress, which will help track emissions and open doors to future carbon markets.

Equally impressive is the financial honesty of the plan. The NDC 3.0 estimates that it will require about US$116 billion by 2035 to deliver on its climate goals. Around US$25.95 billion will come from domestic resources, while the remaining US$90.23 billion will require support from international partners. 

It also reports approximately US$3 billion in annual climate-induced losses and damages, and seeks full global support for recovery and resilience across key sectors. Very few developing countries have gone this far in quantifying the real cost of climate action.

The plan also recognises that climate policy is not just about emissions. It includes 65 adaptation actions linked to Bangladesh's National Adaptation Plan, with clear attention to gender equality, disability, and social inclusion. For the first time, it introduces the concept of a "just transition," acknowledging that climate action must also be fair, socially inclusive, and economically viable.

The 1.5-degree question

Despite its strengths, the NDC 3.0 does not yet demonstrate how the proposed cuts fit into a pathway that keeps global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius. It claims consistency with the Paris Agreement but does not present any emissions modelling or analysis to back that up.

Without clear evidence such as carbon budgets, projected trajectories, or sensitivity analyses, it is difficult to know whether the 20% target is ambitious enough. A technical annex linking these targets to the upcoming Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy would give Bangladesh far more credibility and confidence in the international arena — and the country has recently taken the initiative to formulate one.

Ambition, equity, and realism

At first glance, Bangladesh's 20% target may seem modest compared with countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, or Moldova, which have pledged cuts of 35 to 75% by 2035. But national context matters. Bangladesh contributes very less of total global emissions, yet it faces some of the most severe climate risks in the world. 

The problem is not a lack of political will, but a lack of financial and technological capacity. Expecting Bangladesh to decarbonise deeply without significant international support would be unfair and burdensome. Still, the government could make its case stronger by publishing a "conditionality matrix" showing exactly which measures depend on what level of support, and what greater ambition could be unlocked if that support becomes available.

Counting loss and damage

One of the most promising features of Bangladesh's NDC 3.0 is that it acknowledges loss and damage as a national priority. This issue, long neglected in global negotiations, is crucial for a country that faces growing economic losses from both slow-onset and extreme events every year.

Bangladesh has already done the hard work of setting goals and estimating costs. What it now needs is an implementation roadmap that connects ambition to real projects. Development partners and investors need to know where and how they can contribute, which ministries are responsible, and what the timelines and risk-sharing mechanisms will look like.

However, most of the 65 proposed adaptation measures remain uncosted and lack defined indicators or designated implementing agencies. Without these critical details, mobilising international adaptation finance will remain a challenge. Bangladesh now needs to strengthen its institutional readiness, undertake comprehensive loss and damage assessments, ensure policy coherence, foster inclusive stakeholder engagement, and establish transparent and accountable systems for effective access to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD).

Furthermore, transitioning towards measurable adaptation plans would enhance both domestic accountability and international credibility, reinforcing Bangladesh's position in the global call for loss and damage financing.

From targets to action

Bangladesh has already done the hard work of setting goals and estimating costs. What it now needs is an implementation roadmap that connects ambition to real projects. Development partners and investors need to know where and how they can contribute, which ministries are responsible, and what the timelines and risk-sharing mechanisms will look like.

A practical "NDC Implementation Plan" could identify priority projects, their budgets, and expected emission reductions. This would not only help attract internal and private sector finance but also turn the climate plan into a living instrument for development.

Inclusion beyond consultation

Bangladesh deserves praise for involving civil society, youth groups, and the private sector in the NDC process. But participation is only the first step. True inclusion means giving local governments the authority and resources to act, ensuring gender-responsive budgets, and creating opportunities for young people to join a low-carbon workforce.

A "National Just Transition Fund" or local climate action grants could make these commitments real, ensuring that the path to a green economy does not leave vulnerable communities behind.

A call for partnership

Bangladesh's NDC 3.0 is far from perfect, but it is honest and credible. It sets out what the country can achieve on its own, what depends on external support, and what it will cost. It is a realistic and responsible plan that reflects both ambition and humility.

To move from "Paris-aligned" to truly "1.5-degree-aligned," Bangladesh needs transparent modelling, a clear financing framework, and a pipeline of investable projects. But it also needs trust and partnership.

If the world wants developing countries to raise their climate ambition, wealthier nations must meet them halfway — with finance, technology, and fair market access. Bangladesh has laid out a serious plan; now it is time for the international community to help turn that plan into action.

For Bangladesh, as for many other climate-vulnerable nations, this is not merely an exercise for measuring emissions or budgeting (for mitigation). It is a commitment to protect people and the planet, to safeguard hard-earned progress, to sustain prosperity along cleaner and greener pathways, and to uphold the fundamental right to a liveable future.

Sketch: TBS

Arif M Faisal is working with UNDP. 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of the employer and the Business Standard.