COP30: Can Belém deliver on the climate promises of Paris?

The world's biggest annual climate conference, COP30, opened this week in Belém, a humid Amazonian port city where mangroves meet megaphones. Labeled the "Implementation COP," world leaders are expected to address the implementation challenges of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted a decade ago at COP21 in 2015.

The Brazilian presidency calls it the "Forest COP," a fitting title for a summit taking place in the planet's lungs. Brazil's president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva went further, declaring it the "COP of truth," where the world must finally confront the climate crisis head-on.

Whatever the label, the political leadership at COP in Belém should be asked about the implementation progress of their decade-old commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. This milestone gives Belém added symbolism — a political stock-take on whether the Paris promise still holds meaning.

The COP must also decide on support mechanisms for developing countries to implement their existing commitments, as the global climate regime enters its decade of implementation. All eyes are now on whether it can prove itself fit for purpose.

Keeping the 1.5 °C goal alive 

COP30 stands on three decades of climate diplomacy, from the 1992 Rio Earth Summit through the Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the Paris Agreement (2015). Over those years, the UN climate process — often mocked for its bureaucracy and lofty speeches — has quietly helped bend the curve of global warming, proving that even imperfect diplomacy can deliver real change.

In 2009, scientists warned of a possible future with 6°C of warming. After Paris, projections dropped to about 4°C. Today, under current policies, the world is tracking closer to 2.5°C — still dangerous, but clear evidence that global coordination works.

The latest UN NDC Synthesis Report on recently submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) offers both progress and perspective. A total of 113 parties, representing roughly 69% of 2019 global GHG emissions, have submitted updated NDCs. If fully implemented, these pledges would cut emissions by around 12% below 2019 levels by 2035 — far better than the pre-Paris trajectory, yet still well short of what is needed to keep 1.5°C within reach.

But paper targets and promises don't cool the planet — implementation does.

Hence, this year's COP is less about drafting new rules and more about mobilising strong political momentum for enhanced emission-reduction commitments that align with the 1.5°C global-warming goal. It is necessary to map out a clear pathway from COP30 to a 1.5°C world — one that shows how today's inadequate NDCs can be strengthened through real-world actions capable of replacing fossil fuels with clean energy.

Finance, fairness, and follow-through

Last year's COP29 in Baku set the stage for a new climate finance architecture. Delegates agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion per year by 2035 for developing countries and called for scaling up global climate finance to $1.3 trillion annually by that year. The "Baku-to-Belém Roadmap" was born — an ambitious outline for how to get there.

The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, with its 50 non-binding recommendations, must evolve into a living, measurable mechanism. COP30 must decide on a delivery plan to mobilise $300 billion annually from 2026, rising to $1.3 trillion by 2035, with clear sub-targets for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. The COP should also establish a dedicated funding window for addressing loss and damage, with a specific sub-goal under the NCQG.

Central to its credibility is a universal, functional definition of "climate finance" — one that excludes repackaged aid and debt-creating loans. Without clear timelines, accountability, and transparency, the roadmap risks becoming another exercise in creative accounting rather than a pathway to credible delivery. This requires unlocking the long-promised triad of capacity building, finance, and technology transfer — three pillars that have dominated the halls of every COP yet remain unresolved.

Ahead of the conference, the Climate Justice Alliance–Bangladesh and other civil society organizations (CSOs) launched a joint position paper outlining three urgent priorities: finance, ambition with accountability, and implementation with integrity. The paper underscores that this is not a plea for charity, but a call for justice.

Bangladesh's stake in Belem 

Bangladesh exemplifies both ambition and urgency. It finances nearly 75% of its climate spending, allocating 6–7% of its annual budget to climate programmes. Its NDC 3.0 pledges a 6.39% unconditional and 13.92% conditional emissions reduction by 2035, at a total cost of $116 billion.

To coordinate these efforts, Bangladesh has launched the Bangladesh Climate and Development Platform (BCDP), bringing together more than ten ministries to align climate action with the country's development goals.

In Belém, Bangladesh is expected to be a strong voice, advocating for a COP decision on the means of implementation — packaged as finance, technology, and capacity-building support to deliver its adaptation and mitigation plans. This message echoes the demands of many climate-vulnerable countries. For those on the frontline, implementation is not a political slogan; it is a matter of survival.

Why Belém matters

The choice of Belém is part symbolism, part statement. The city sits where the Amazon River meets the sea — a place where the global climate challenge meets the people living on its front lines. About 40% of Belém lies below sea level, and most of its 2.5 million residents live in informal settlements with sparse tree cover and inadequate drainage. The surrounding rainforest, the planet's greatest carbon sink, is under siege from deforestation and drought.

As COP30 President-designate André Corrêa do Lago puts it, Belém forces leaders to "face the climate crisis where it is happening." It is both poetic and practical, marking the first time global climate talks are taking place within the world's climate system itself.

This year's agenda also goes beyond emissions. The Belém Health Action Plan, to be launched on Health Day, aims to strengthen climate-resilient health systems, linking the climate crisis to human wellbeing like never before. For Brazil, this is also a biodiversity summit — a reminder that protecting forests and protecting people are inseparable goals.

The Belém climate COP is more than just another summit. Its setting in the rainforest that keeps the planet breathing gives this gathering moral gravity and leaves little room for excuses.

The Paris decade began with a promise; Belém must deliver the proof. If the world cannot move from commitments to consequences here — amid the sounds of the rainforest and the rising tides of the Amazon Delta — then where can it? Call it the Forest COP, the Implementation COP, or the COP of truth; the message from Belém is unmistakable:

The era of promises is over. The decade of delivery has begun.

Sumaiya Binte Anwar is a program manager - research and advocacy and Md Shamsuddoha is the chief executive at Center for Participatory Research and Development (CPRD).

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.