Why credible and accurate human capital data is required for national planning

The goal of development is to improve the quality of life for all people, with the population at the core of development. Any development effort should consider population parameters to ensure sustained economic growth and societal welfare. Therefore, the population must be the focus of all development policies and programmes. 

Integrating population factors into development planning, designing evidence-based population policies and programmes, and monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of such policies and programmes are essential. Since population factors serve as indicators of welfare improvement, the success or failure of development programmes and interventions can be assessed by identifying changes in population variables. 

Thus, development planners must understand population factors and integrate these variables when formulating policies and plans. Population-based data are crucial for assessing progress towards development goals and targets. For this, valid, reliable, timely, relevant, and internationally comparable data form the foundation for policy and programme development, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. To monitor the progress and success of national and international goals, it is necessary to improve the availability and quality of population and development data. 

Understanding progress related to population requires up-to-date, high-quality, accurate, and reliable information disaggregated by factors such as age, gender, income, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location, and other relevant characteristics. 

Without such reliable and accurate data, it will be difficult to hold governments accountable for their commitments to development goals or to identify areas requiring more concerted action.

In Bangladesh, the primary sources of population data for monitoring population and development planning are the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) datasets, including the Bangladesh Population and Housing Census, the Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics, the Labour Force Survey, the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the Violence Against Women Survey (VAW), among others. 

Conducting a population and housing census in any country is critical, as it provides reliable, updated, and comprehensive data on the population's size, distribution, and structure. The quality of census data is vital for many reasons, including building public trust and understanding the national statistical system. 

For instance, data from the 2022 Bangladesh Population and Housing Census on the number of disabled, ethnic, migrant, and foreign populations have raised concerns. Thus, the government must ensure that the census provides accurate results and high-quality data—essential for shaping future plans and policies. 

In Bangladesh, it has been observed that the quality of available data often falls short of expectations, and data are not always readily accessible to researchers. Furthermore, significant delays in releasing detailed analytical reports can disrupt the timely production of indicators and statistical information, hampering evidence-based policymaking. Political interference also plays a role. 

Evidence in the 'White Paper on the State of the Bangladesh Economy' highlights various flaws and gaps. For example, in terms of data accuracy, the white paper identifies standardisation and harmonisation of data as perennial challenges. The accuracy of fiscal and survey data often varies due to the use of different definitions and methodologies, making comparisons over time difficult.

We are just five years away from the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) benchmark. However, existing data sources remain outdated. Improvements in data availability and quality for population and development planning are urgently needed. Data authentication, converting statistics into official statistics, and setting targets every five years to measure progress are essential. 

Following the principle of leaving no one behind in the 2030 development agenda, various UN agencies should intensify efforts to support marginalised and vulnerable groups across the country. A systematic data assessment is needed to improve population and development planning. Once the status of population and development indicator monitoring is established, it will be possible to explore how these indicators are linked to SDG monitoring, what needs to be done to strengthen monitoring, and what factors might aid this process. Realistically, planning is challenging without a robust database and a body of researchers to utilise and assess it. 

My co-authored publication, "Data Challenges to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in Bangladesh" in the Asia Pacific Sustainable Development Journal (APSDJ, 2024, Vol. 31, No. 2), revealed that Bangladesh faces significant obstacles in achieving SDGs, including the lack of baseline data. Our study found that 36.9% of SDG indicators are updated, 31.7% are in progress, and 32.1% are unavailable, while 60% of data are missing for SDGs 12 and 14. 

Other challenges include the absence of guidance for generating new data, reliance on outdated data, limited tools and methods for disaggregation, inadequate coordination in data sharing among agencies, and insufficient awareness of international metadata standards. 

We recommended establishing a national data repository or information bank to consolidate relevant data from concerned organisations, linked with the SDGs Tracker. This configuration would facilitate tracking initiatives, enabling effective monitoring and evaluation of real progress. 

Improving coordination and integration is essential, with an emphasis on public-private partnerships. Effective coordination among authorities will ensure quality data monitoring and regular data revision. Each ministry or directorate should establish a dedicated unit to oversee high-quality scientific research, creating an environment conducive to unbiased, meaningful research outcomes, strengthening infrastructure, and ensuring information accessibility.

Bangladesh is currently experiencing its first demographic dividend. One of the government's development policy goals is to capitalise on this opportunity by creating an environment for accelerated economic growth, beginning with changes in the population's age structure as it transitions from high to low birth and death rates. 

With fewer young people relative to the working-age population, and with the successful implementation of long-term national policies based on credible, quality data, significant progress can be achieved. Human capital, defined as the economic value of workers' experience and skills, including education, health, and training, must be calculated accurately using quality data before and after investments are made. Increased investment in education and health is particularly necessary.

Planners can successfully implement policies if they develop programmes that address the present and future needs of different population segments using credible and accurate data. Therefore, urgent efforts are required to make quality data available for all indicators through effective multi-sectoral partnerships, coordination, and integration among stakeholders. This will strengthen and improve the country's data capacity. 

Using population data for development planning in Bangladesh should include improving data quality and reliability, increasing policymakers' capacity and commitment to using population data in planning, enhancing dialogue between data providers and policymakers to understand each other's needs, and developing effective systems for data dissemination and access for policymakers and other stakeholders. 

Dr Mohammad Mainul Islam. Sketch: TBS

The author is a professor and former chairman of the Department of Population Sciences at the University of Dhaka

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are that of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.