US–Iran nuclear talks: How far will Tehran go for a deal?

Iranian newspapers in Tehran have reported on possible US military options.

The Iranian leadership is hoping for a way out of its current security predicament as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prepares to hold direct talks with envoys of US President Donald Trump — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — in Oman on Friday.

Iranian media reports suggest the talks are likely to focus on a package of proposals developed by Russia, which they claim could be acceptable to both Tehran and Washington.

"These reports have not yet been confirmed by Iranian sources and may differ in certain details from the actual proposals," said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian foreign and security policy and a visiting scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.

"However, from Iran's point of view, they appear to be fundamentally acceptable and seem to have been agreed upon during Larijani's visit to Moscow," he added, referring to a recent trip to Russia by Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's National Security Council, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.

A win-win-win for Moscow?

Azizi believes Russia, like other countries in the region, wants to prevent a US–Iran war that would destabilise the Middle East.

At the same time, he noted that Moscow also insists Tehran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, as this would not be in Iran's own interests.

"Moscow also sees the current situation as a particularly favourable moment that promises a threefold gain," Azizi said.

"Firstly, a weakened Iran will be more closely tied to Russia; secondly, Moscow will accommodate President Trump politically and help him reach a deal; and thirdly, the Kremlin will attempt to further marginalise Europe's influence — not only on the Iran issue but across the Middle East — portraying European actors as politically insignificant."

Russia has reportedly proposed that the state-owned company Rosatom monitor and control Iran's limited uranium enrichment at nuclear reactors, ensuring it remains strictly within agreed limits.

It remains unclear, however, whether Russia would be involved in dealing with the estimated 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium currently in Iran's possession.

This material has been the main stumbling block since the US launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

Iranian journalist Hadi Mohammadi, who has covered the nuclear programme inside the country for many years, wrote on X that "the 60% enriched uranium was produced as a bargaining chip for the lifting of sanctions. The material could be diluted".

Putin ready to mediate

If successful, the US–Iran talks could be divided into two tracks, reported The Wall Street Journal. One would focus on Iran's nuclear programme, while the other would address broader issues, including US demands for restrictions on Iran's missile programme.

"In my view, the central point of contention between Iran and the US is Iran's missile capability, no longer its nuclear programme," Azizi said.

According to Iranian media outlets, the Kremlin has proposed providing guarantees that Iran's missile programme would not be used to attack Israel or the United States.

Putin announced in mid-January that he was prepared to mediate between Iran and Israel. While Russia is an ally of Iran, Moscow also holds some influence in Israel, where large segments of the population obtained citizenship after emigrating from Russia and other former Soviet states.

The Russian president is attempting to redefine and revive Moscow's influence in the Middle East, which has been weakened by the war in Ukraine, Azizi said.

It remains unclear whether Tehran would agree to guarantee Israel's security, particularly after having threatened it with annihilation in the past and repeatedly insisting it will not relinquish its defensive capabilities.

Trump 'did not do anything' to help Iranian protesters

With the Oman talks approaching, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Tehran.

For the talks to lead to a "meaningful outcome", they must include issues such as the range of Iran's ballistic missiles, support for terrorist organisations, the nuclear programme, and Iran's treatment of its own people, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this week.

At the same time, Iranian leaders are likely to raise grievances over Trump's past encouragement of protesters to seize state institutions during recent unrest.

"President Trump promised the Iranian protesters that help was on the way. He did not do anything," said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst and professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.

Gerges added that the US focus has expanded beyond Iran's nuclear and ballistic programmes to include Tehran's support for regional allies and proxy groups.

"So it's all about geopolitics," he said.

Iran acting out of 'sheer necessity'

Last weekend, Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could be reached with Iran's leadership.

Azizi, however, said he was "sceptical about the prospects for success" of the talks and about any tangible impact of a potential deal.

"Iran is seeking an agreement out of sheer necessity in order to avoid war in the short term. Security concerns and regime preservation are the top priorities," he said. "The ultimate goal is an agreement that removes the military option — or the threat of one."

Azizi does not expect any fundamental shift in Iranian foreign policy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The long-running standoff between Washington and Tehran means a military confrontation remains possible at any time.

In recent weeks, the US has deployed aircraft carriers, warships, fighter jets and additional troops to the region, fuelling fears of escalation.

Shabnam von Hein is a German-Iranian journalist with DW's Asia department.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.