Next Bangladesh govt faces complex political, economic challenges: Crisis Group

The International Crisis Group has said the incoming administration in Bangladesh will need to address a raft of challenges, from weak institutions to a sluggish economy, heavily dependent on garment exports and remittances, as well as the growing effects of climate change in one of the world's most densely populated countries.

It will also need to "navigate tricky foreign policy issues, particularly relations with India, the implications of the intensifying US-China rivalry and the lack of progress toward resolving the status of more than one million Rohingya refugees languishing in camps near the Myanmar border," said Thomas Kean, Crisis Group's senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh.

He said an elected government with a five-year term would be better positioned to manage the country's political rancour and social and economic challenges than an interim administration, but warned that the tasks ahead are many and complex.

"If the result is contested, it could spiral into a political crisis, testing the fragile consensus that has underpinned the transition," Kean said.

He was commenting on the group's latest Q&A, Curtain Falls on Bangladesh's Interim Government as Critical Elections Approach, which examines what is at stake in Bangladesh's 12 February election.

Even if the vote passes peacefully, Kean said the next government will face mounting pressure to meet the aspirations of a youthful and frustrated population and to deliver reforms, starting with the July Charter, or risk reinforcing perceptions that the promised political change has been largely cosmetic.

"Predicting the outcome of the 12 February poll is challenging because Bangladesh's electoral landscape has shifted so much," he said.

The biggest risks revolve around security. Political violence is already on the rise, and at least sixteen politicians have been killed since the election schedule was announced, Kean noted.

He warned of a real danger of further attacks on candidates, as well as reprisals against Awami League supporters or Bangladesh's Hindu minority.

Roughly half of the population is under 30, and many struggle to find work that matches their education level, fuelling a deep sense of frustration. Any failure to implement promised reforms, beginning with the July Charter, would risk reinforcing perceptions that political change has been merely cosmetic, he said.

The incoming government will also have to grapple with the thorny issue of political reconciliation. Given its prominence in the country's history and its strong electoral base, the Awami League cannot remain on the sidelines indefinitely, Kean said.

However, the party's actions under Sheikh Hasina, particularly in July and August 2024, mean that allowing it to return to the electoral arena, even under new leadership, would be politically fraught, he added.

India and other foreign governments with influence could help broker dialogue between the party and the future government to reach an agreement, Kean said.

Foreign governments, many of which have backed Prof Muhammad Yunus and his colleagues, should continue supporting the incoming administration as it seeks to turn the page on Bangladesh's recent turbulence, he added.