IMF cautions Bangladesh against unsecured liquidity support to weak banks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned Bangladesh against providing unsecured liquidity injections to weak banks, stressing the need for a tight monetary policy stance and credible banking sector reforms to restore financial stability.

The caution came as the IMF Executive Board concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation with Bangladesh on Sunday (26 January), with the authorities consenting to the publication of the staff report, according to a statement released yesterday (30 January).

The IMF noted that Bangladesh's economic growth has slowed in recent years while inflation has remained elevated.

GDP growth fell to 3.7% in FY25 from 4.2% in FY24 and 5.8% in FY23, reflecting production disruptions during the 2024 uprising, a tighter policy mix and weak investment.

Inflation eased from double-digit levels earlier in FY25 but remained high at 8.2% year-on-year in October.

IMF observed that Bangladesh's tax revenue-to-GDP ratio declined sharply in FY25, although the fiscal deficit was contained due to under-execution of capital and social spending.

Foreign exchange reserves have started to recover, supported by improvements in the current account balance.

Looking ahead, the IMF projected a gradual economic recovery, provided reforms are implemented.

Growth is expected to rebound to 4.7% in FY26 and rise to around 6% over the medium term, supported by higher revenue mobilisation and measures to address financial sector weaknesses.

Inflation, however, is projected to remain elevated at 8.9% in FY26 before easing to about 6% in FY27.

Executive directors acknowledged the interim authorities' efforts to stabilise the economy following the 2024 uprising and ahead of national elections.

However, they warned that Bangladesh continues to face mounting macroeconomic and financial challenges, including weak revenue mobilisation, banking sector vulnerabilities, incomplete implementation of the new exchange rate framework and persistently high inflation.

Directors noted uneven programme performance and said decisive and sustained policy actions would be required to restore macroeconomic and financial stability.

They stressed that full ownership of the reform programme by the next administration would be critical, alongside early engagement with IMF staff and efforts to secure stakeholder support.

On the banking sector, the IMF highlighted the urgent need for a credible reform strategy aligned with international standards.

Directors said such a strategy should include clear estimates of undercapitalisation, define the scope of fiscal support and outline legally robust restructuring and resolution plans.

They encouraged the authorities to conduct asset quality reviews for all systemic and state-owned banks, strengthen risk-based supervision and improve governance and balance sheet transparency.

In this context, the IMF cautioned against unsecured liquidity injections into weak banks, warning that such measures could undermine financial stability.

The IMF also stressed that maintaining a tight policy mix remains necessary to continue rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and reducing inflation.

Directors stressed the importance of full and consistent implementation of exchange rate reforms, along with greater exchange rate flexibility. 

Monetary policy, they said, should remain appropriately tight until inflation is firmly on a downward trajectory, while efforts to modernise the monetary policy framework should continue.

On fiscal policy, directors urged ambitious reforms to boost revenue. They encouraged bold tax policy measures, simplification of the tax system and stronger tax administration and compliance.

The IMF also underscored the need to rationalise subsidies, prioritise growth-enhancing investment and improve public financial and investment management, while strengthening social safety nets to support inclusive growth.

The institution further noted that improving the financial viability of energy sector state-owned enterprises would be important for reducing fiscal risks.

Beyond macroeconomic management, the IMF stressed the importance of comprehensive structural reforms as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from least developed country status.

Directors highlighted the need to enhance governance and transparency, strengthen anti-corruption and AML/CFT frameworks and safeguard central bank autonomy.

They also supported policies aimed at job creation, particularly for young people, export diversification and continued improvements in macroeconomic statistics.

The IMF said continued implementation of reforms under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement could help Bangladesh build climate resilience and mobilise climate finance.