Death toll keeps climbing: When will  dengue outbreak subside?

Highlights:

• Over 156 dengue deaths in November, the highest monthly toll this year
• Over 88,000 cases reported this year
• Climate change, October rain, disrupted mosquito control fuel prolonged dengue season
• Experts anticipate a decline in cases after mid-December
• Strong government policies and public health measures crucial for future prevention

The dengue outbreak in the country, which typically subsides by September-October, has persisted into late November, with over five deaths reported daily this month.

Experts attribute this extended outbreak to global warming, October's heavy rainfall and inadequate mosquito control efforts. They predict the situation will begin to improve after mid-December.

According to the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), 10 more people died of dengue in the 24 hours preceding yesterday morning, bringing the death toll this year to 471.

Additionally, 990 new patients were admitted to hospitals across the country during this period. Since January, a total of 88,715 dengue cases have been recorded.

Public health expert Dr M Mushtuq Hossain linked October's rainfall to the prolonged outbreak.

"Usually, dengue outbreaks peak one to one-and-a-half months after rainfall. If there is no further rain and winter sets in, the outbreak should decline by the end of December," he said.

Hossain stressed the need for improved mosquito control and patient surveillance to prevent future surges in infections and fatalities.

"Critical patients should be treated in tertiary healthcare centres, while less critical cases can be managed in primary care to reduce deaths. Mosquito control efforts must be intensified in hotspots with high patient concentrations," he added.

In November alone, 156 people died from dengue, marking the highest monthly death toll of the year.

Medical entomologist and Jahangirnagar University Professor Khabirul Bashar highlighted global warming and recent administrative disruptions as contributing factors.

"We predicted a severe dengue season this year. Changes in the chain of command in the Local Government Ministry following the fall of the government may have hindered mosquito control efforts," he noted.

Bashar warned that the outbreak is unlikely to disappear suddenly.

"The number of cases will gradually decline after December 15, but hotspots with a high density of Aedes mosquito larvae and patients will remain vulnerable. Targeted mosquito control in these areas is crucial to reducing cases and deaths," he said.

Bashar added, "Identifying and addressing hotspots will significantly reduce infections and fatalities."

Repeated dengue infections have also intensified the outbreak, said Dr Ashraful Islam, a medicine specialist at Community Medical College Hospital.

"Second or third infections increase the risk of severe complications and fatalities. Patients often resume normal activities once their fever subsides, but the danger intensifies during the recovery phase," he cautioned.

Ashraful Islam advised patients to monitor blood pressure after the fever resolves and avoid pain relievers, as they can cause bleeding.

He added, "Symptoms such as persistent vomiting, bleeding, low blood pressure or prolonged lack of urination warrant immediate hospitalisation."

Despite intensified efforts, experts warn that Bangladesh could continue to face annual dengue surges unless comprehensive strategies are implemented.

Last year, the country experienced its deadliest dengue season on record, with 1,705 deaths. Without stronger preventative measures, the disease may continue to pose a growing public health threat.