Who will bag votes in Awami League’s historical bastions?

Mamtaz Begum witnessed the days of Bangladesh's Liberation War — her brother was a freedom fighter. She remembers the killings, the bloodshed, the tension, and the slow rebuilding that followed.

She still recalls walking all the way to Gopalganj from her home in Kashiani. Things are better now, she said. There are roads, and she can travel home comfortably.

"Our district developed, and Sheikh Hasina did it," the elderly woman said. But her face darkened as she added, "Everything turned uncertain after 5 August," referring to the 2024 uprising that ousted Hasina's government and forced her to flee to India.

Walking through the streets and bazaars of Gopalganj, an eerie calm hangs in the air. Not long ago, the district witnessed protests, bloodshed, and loss of life following the fall of the Awami League government. It was the only district where large rallies were later held in support of the Awami League — and where violence subsequently broke out during a visit by NCP leaders.

In the bazaar stands the Gopalganj district BNP office. With the Awami League barred from the election, the BNP is attempting to make inroads into this traditional Awami stronghold for the first time. 

Yet when we visited one afternoon, the office was deserted — an odd sight in an election month, when campaign offices elsewhere buzz with activity. Attempts to locate a Jamaat office also mounted to nothing; the madrasa where leaders were said to gather showed no visible party activity.

It was, after all, election season. But by the second week of January, Gopalganj felt unusually subdued — with polling less than a month away, on 12 February.

The wider belt across the Padma — Gopalganj, Shariatpur, Bagerhat, and parts of Faridpur and Rajbari — has long been considered an Awami League stronghold, where the party traditionally performed strongly at the polls.

Infograph: TBS

In Gopalganj-3, for instance, Sheikh Hasina held the seat continuously from 1991, winning by overwhelming margins. A similar pattern existed in the other constituencies, with leaders such as Sheikh Selim in Gopalganj-2 and Faruk Khan in Gopalganj-1.

Now, with the boat symbol absent from the ballot, many voters here say they have little incentive to go to polling centres.

Besides, intelligence reports suggest there is a risk of voters being intimidated in different ways to stop them from going to polling stations in this region, including in Gopalganj, Shariatpur and Faridpur. Because of this, special surveillance is being carried out on the movement of outsiders, the activities of political workers, and any suspicious behaviour around high-risk polling stations in these districts. Extra precautions are also being taken in Khulna and Bagerhat districts. 

Akbor, a rickshaw puller from Tungipara, said he would not go to the polls in the upcoming election. "They banned our party, so we will not vote," he said flatly.

Another rickshaw puller standing beside him in Gopalganj Sadar was less certain. He was unsure whether he would vote at all — or whom he would vote for. There was little enthusiasm for the election in his village, he said.

There were exceptions, though. 

Imon, a young voter from Laghunathpur, said he would cast his vote, even though he had yet to decide for whom. The mood in his village, he added, was that others would turn out as well.

"Why wouldn't we vote?" he asked. "This is an Awami League area, that's true. But now you don't see the Awami League — everyone seems to have become BNP these days."

The absence of visible campaigning was striking. 

At the district Awami League office — where activists backing the BNP's official candidate, AKM Babar Ali, were expected to be active — no one was in sight. By contrast, several activists were preparing lunch at the old BNP office, which has become the base of BNP rebel candidate MH Khan Monjur. 

Imran Khan, a campaigner for Khan Monjur, said he was not a BNP activist but supported Khan because he believed the candidate had a stronger chance of winning. "He is addressing people's worries beyond party lines," he said.

Another activist, Sakib Al Hasna, said Khan's main appeal lay in his promise to help residents get rid of what he described as "false cases" filed during the violence that followed a visit by NCP leaders, when several people were killed in clashes involving security forces.

"Khan Monjur has pledged to clear these cases," he said. "That's why people will rally behind him."

A senior district journalist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said voter turnout in Gopalganj would depend largely on how the final contest took shape.

"In Gopalganj-1, for example, once independent candidate and former Upazila Chairman Ashraful Alam Shimul was cleared to run, turnout could reach around 60%," he said, pointing to a three-way contest between BNP's Salimuzzaman Salim, Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Abdul Hamid, and the former Upazila Chairman running as an independent.

The July Uprising brought many first-time voters into the realm of political consciousness, particularly young people. But alongside hope runs hesitation in Bangladesh's former Awami strongholds — a sense that participation does not necessarily guarantee representation.

Both Jamaat and the BNP have small but loyal vote bases in the constituency, he said, but the independent candidate could yet have the last laugh. Gopalganj-2 may see a similar turnout driven by another independent challenger, while BNP candidate SM Jilane is widely expected to win comfortably in Gopalganj-3, where no strong independent is in the race.

Rabindranath Odhikari, president of SUJON in Gopalganj, said the balance still appeared to favour the BNP, particularly because of the large Hindu voter base in the district, especially in Gopalganj-3.

"In this constituency, Govinda Pramanik is contesting as an independent to attract the Hindu vote," Odhikari said. "But many Hindu voters may prioritise security over religious affiliation, and at the moment the BNP may be seen as better placed to provide that sense of security."

He added that the presence of several Awami League-leaning independent candidates across the constituencies could further split the vote in ways that benefit the BNP.

"60% turnout may sound high, but it could come close," he said. "People will go to the polls, but not with a happy face."

Sharif Rafiquzzaman, the BNP convener in Gopalganj, said he was confident the party would win all three constituencies. However, he expressed concerns over a possible attempt by AL elements to stoke violence.

"Our candidates may face some competition in Gopalganj-1 and Gopalganj-2, and still we will comfortably win, but we will win a landslide in Gopalganj -3," he added.

A similar stillness has settled over Shariatpur, another river-bound district long regarded as part of the Awami League's southern heartland. Surrounded by the Padma, Jayanti, and Kirtinasha rivers, the district usually hums with election-season activity. This time, there is little sign of it.

Since the 2024 anti-discrimination movement, Shariatpur's political landscape has shifted sharply. Once dominant, Awami League supporters are now largely absent from public view. With the party sidelined, confusion and scepticism have replaced the usual pre-election buzz. Discussions in tea stalls and marketplaces revolve less around candidates than around whether the vote itself will matter.

Shariatpur has three parliamentary seats, but none feature rebel or independent heavyweights — a rarity for the district. Analysts say the absence of familiar political rivalries has drained the contest of energy. Where the Awami League once dominated, and the BNP followed as the main challenger, the vacuum left behind has produced uncertainty rather than enthusiasm.

This voter apathy is evident across the district. Doubts over the credibility of the election, and the parallel referendum-like nature of the contest in the absence of the Awami League, have further dampened interest.

Arman Hossain, a resident of Laukhola village in Zajira, shrugged while harvesting onions in a field. "If a major party like the Awami League is not really part of it, why should we vote?" he said. Others sounded conflicted rather than disengaged.

Bashanta Das from Damudya said that, as a Hindu voter, his choices were often viewed through a communal lens regardless of his intent.

"Even so, I will go to the polling centre," he said. "I will vote for whoever I think is right."

Idris Bepari from Sakhipur was less convinced. "If the Awami League had taken part, the election would have felt more credible," he said. "They might not have won many votes, but people would have trusted the process. In this situation, I won't vote."

Local observers say Shariatpur's subdued mood reflects a broader pattern emerging across the Awami League's former bastions in the region — from Gopalganj and Madaripur to parts of Faridpur — where the party's absence has not automatically translated into competitive enthusiasm for its rivals.

Faridpur, by contrast, shows signs of movement, but even there the energy feels altered.

Campaigning is visible across its four constituencies, with BNP candidates and others filling the vacuum left by the Awami League.

Infrastructure projects such as the Padma Bridge and improved rail links have raised the district's strategic importance, and voters appear more focused on individual candidates than party symbols.

Yet conversations in Faridpur's tea stalls echo the same underlying question heard in Shariatpur and Gopalganj, revealing a lingering sense of voter apathy.

Meanwhile, the election campaign has picked up pace in another Awami stronghold — Bagerhat's four constituencies — where 23 candidates are contesting the 13th parliamentary election. With symbols allocated, campaigning is now in full swing, though the contest is widely expected to come down to BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.

Several BNP leaders are running as independent candidates, defying party decisions. Abdul Halim, a voter in Bagerhat, told TBS that local concerns mattered to him more than party loyalty. "We want development and freedom from corruption. This time, people will vote for the candidate, not the symbol," he said, adding that voters wanted to be able to reach polling stations safely amid concerns of violence.

BNP's candidate in Bagerhat-2, Sheikh Zakir Hossain, said conditions in the area were relatively fair.

"There is a level playing field, and we are campaigning with our leaders and activists," he said, while urging law-enforcement agencies to increase vigilance following reports of outsiders entering the area.

Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Sheikh Monjurul Haque asked for change. "People want change and a meaningful election," he said. "Public participation, especially among young and working people, gives this election a sense of hope."

In neighbouring Khulna, campaigning is visible but cautious across the district's six constituencies. While BNP candidates appear organised on the ground, Jamaat has focused heavily on door-to-door outreach, particularly among women and first-time voters.

A young voter, Naim Hasan, a student at North Western University in Khulna, said he will vote for the first time. "This feels different," he said. "I want my vote to mean something. I haven't decided whom to vote for yet, but I don't want my vote to help anyone who will loot the country."

The July–August uprising brought many first-time voters into political consciousness, particularly young people. But alongside hope runs hesitation in Bangladesh's former Awami bastions — a sense that participation does not necessarily guarantee representation.

Standing near a roadside stall in Shariatpur, Idris Bepari returned to the point that lingers across these districts. "People are not afraid," he said. "They are just unsure." Then he paused, before adding quietly, "If voting no longer feels meaningful, what exactly are we being asked to take part in?"

Shariatpur correspondent Kazi Monir, Bagerhat correspondent Ali Akbar Tutul, Faridpur correspondent Sanjib Das and Khulna correspondent Awal Sheikh contributed to this report.