Teesta Master Plan and the longstanding Bangladesh-India water politics

The Teesta River dispute has once again come to the forefront of political rhetoric, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leading a 48-hour nonstop sit-in along a 130-kilometre stretch of the river in the past two days. 

Protesters demanded a fair share of Teesta's water for Bangladesh and the long-overdue implementation of the Teesta Master Plan — a comprehensive plan to address flood control, erosion prevention and improved irrigation.

The Teesta dispute has been a longstanding issue for more than four decades between India and Bangladesh, largely due to India's lack of commitment to resolving it. 

It all began in 1983, when India and Bangladesh reached a temporary deal on sharing the Teesta River's water. Under this two-year agreement, Bangladesh got 36% of the dry-season flow, India got 39%, and the remaining 25% was left undecided. But this was just a short-term fix and never turned into a permanent treaty.

Over the years, the issue kept coming up, and by 2011, a long-term water-sharing deal, allocating 37.5% of the Teesta's water to Bangladesh during the dry season, was nearly sealed. But it fell through at the last moment when West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee opposed it, fearing it would hurt the state's agriculture and economy.

"In my opinion, the Teesta Master Plan can be implemented, but water availability must be ensured beforehand. It's pointless to implement a masterplan for a dry river. We must ensure that water from the upstream sources will be available."

Sheikh Rokon, secretary general, Riverine People

Modi's government also pledged to resolve the issue during his 2015 visit, stressing the importance of water sharing in nurturing bilateral relations. 

Yet, nearly a decade later, the Teesta dispute with India remains unresolved. And then the situation took a new turn when China entered the region's water politics; Bangladesh signed a non-binding MoU with Chinese state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China (POWERCHINA) in 2016 to explore an alternative approach to managing the river's challenges. 

The Teesta Master Plan is supposed to be a comprehensive blueprint aimed at sustainably managing and restoring the Teesta River by combining detailed scientific assessments of hydrology and ecology with environmentally friendly infrastructure proposals for flood control, erosion prevention, and improved irrigation. 

Initially agreed upon in 2020, the masterplan was supposed to be finalised by 2024 under a five-year plan. But on 18 February this year, Environment Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan said that the Teesta Master Plan's deadline has been extended by two years, now set for December 2026. A preliminary report is expected between October and December this year. 

Rizwana stressed that the plan will be developed by incorporating the views and opinions of local communities living along the river. To achieve this, the Ministry of Water Resources and the PWDB will conduct public hearings — with POWERCHINA present at every session — to gather feedback on what should or should not be included. 

She also clarified that previous proposals, such as one submitted by POWERCHINA, were deemed unsustainable, prompting a revision of the plan. 

"People are questioning how the implementation will take place when there is no plan. A plan needs to be established first," she said. Following discussions with Power China, a decision was made to revise the plan.

In the meantime, while speaking to The Business Standard, Sheikh Rokon, secretary general of Riverine People, explained that Bangladesh's initial agreement with POWERCHINA in 2016 led to the introduction of the masterplan proposal in 2020. 

At that time, China proposed a major dredging project on the Teesta River within Bangladesh, with the goal of building reservoirs and embankments to regulate water flow and improve irrigation. This project, valued at approximately $1 billion, was seen as a potential solution to Bangladesh's water management challenges without requiring India's participation.

The plan was submitted to the Ministry of Water Resources and sent to the Economic Relations Division (ERD). By 2023, it had become clear that China was fully prepared to implement the project, with work set to begin after the January 2024 election. 

However, concerns about the strategic implications of Chinese involvement near India's Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip that connects India's northeastern states to the rest of the country and often referred to as the "Chicken's Neck", led India to push Bangladesh to put the Chinese proposal on hold.

In June 2024, instead of following through with the trip to China, Bangladesh's then prime minister Hasina unexpectedly visited India, where a bilateral announcement was made stating that India would lead the Teesta project in Bangladesh. Hasina argued that since the water would flow through India, it was more practical for it to take charge of the project.

Now, with the change in government, the proposed deal's tenure has been extended. The interim government has decided to renew the project with POWERCHINA. 

The Gajaldoba Barrage has also been a major concern for Bangladesh. When India diverts water at Gajaldoba, the Dalia Barrage in Bangladesh becomes ineffective, worsening water scarcity in the region.

Notably, the Gajaldoba Barrage, built in 1975, has long been a point of contention, as it significantly reduces the flow of water into Bangladesh. This has led to adverse impacts on agriculture, drinking water supplies, and the livelihoods of communities in the downstream areas. Bangladesh has consistently raised concerns about the reduced water flow, arguing that it further exacerbates water scarcity in the affected regions.

The situation has also been complicated by heavy rainfall in 2024 and the damage to a hydropower dam in Sikkim, India, which led to flooding in Bangladesh. This resulted in crop losses and economic hardships for local farmers, further intensifying the humanitarian crisis in the region.

Given these complex circumstances, climate expert and BRAC University emeritus professor Dr Ainun Nishat argues that the solution to the Teesta issue must be entirely political. 

"The key principle of management is to retain water during the rainy season. We need larger reservoirs. Ultimately, politicians must take the lead in finding solutions," he said.

He also critiqued the proposed plans to narrow the river, which in some places spans as wide as three to four kilometres, down to just 800 metres. "To me, this sounds unrealistic," he commented. 

According to Dr Nishat, the masterplan encompasses two major components: the sustainable river management project and the comprehensive management and restoration project, both of which call for reviving the river. 

However, he pointed out a key issue. "The first condition for reviving the river is water. If it's dry in the winter, and if India withdraws all the water, what will we restore? How will we restore the ecology?"

He highlighted the complexity of inter-state water distribution conflicts in India, which makes resolving the issue even more difficult. 

"Bangladesh must establish an institutional arrangement, and this should be outlined in a long-term agreement — one that clearly defines the distribution and management of water," Dr Nishat explained. 

Meanwhile, Sheikh Rokon emphasised that the success of the Teesta Master Plan hinges on water availability. "In my opinion, the Teesta Master Plan can be implemented, but water availability must be ensured beforehand. It's pointless to implement a masterplan for a dry river. We must ensure that water from the upstream sources will be available," he said.

He added, "The Teesta Master Plan can be implemented, but it should be multilateral, involving China, India, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank."

Such a multilateral approach, he argued, would ensure two things: first, Bangladesh would not be caught in the crossfire of India-China geopolitical rivalry; and second, financial and ecological sustainability would be guaranteed. 

Overall situation of Bangladesh's water-sharing issues with India 

The Teesta dispute is just one of many water-sharing challenges Bangladesh faces with India. With 54 shared rivers between the two countries, water has long been a major bilateral issue, entangled in a complex political saga involving Bangladesh, India and West Bengal. 

The renewal of the Ganges treaty, which will expire in 2026, was discussed during Sheikh Hasina's visits to India in 2017, 2019, and 2022, but it yielded little tangible outcome for Bangladesh.

Moreover, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has long been campaigning against any deal regarding the Ganges just the way she did with the Teesta. The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty of 1996 is set to expire soon. If you ask Mamata about it, she would perhaps reply the same way she did back in 2015, "Please keep faith in me" and that we "don't worry about" Teesta water.

Beyond the Ganges and Teesta, disputes also exist over several other transboundary rivers, including the Feni and Kushiyara, as well as smaller rivers such as the Manu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla, and Dudhkumar. Over the years, India has prioritised its own interests, often depriving Bangladesh of vital water resources by manipulating river flows to support its agriculture, industry, and hydropower needs.

Despite Bangladesh's efforts to obtain information on how these rivers' waters are utilised on the Indian side, it has not received full disclosure — further evidence of India's lack of commitment to resolving water-sharing issues with its neighbour.

Given this situation, Dr Nishat opined that focusing on just one river would not bring much benefit, and suggested that Bangladesh must hold dialogues with India about all the rivers, barrages and water-sharing issues. 

"At this moment, Bangladesh should organise stakeholder consultation to determine our approach. The continuity of the previous approach cannot go on. Government bureaucrats and engineers don't understand things unless whispered into their ear," he concluded.