Road to Rohingya repatriation is more complex than it seems

A Facebook post from the verified page of the Chief Adviser to Bangladesh's interim government broke the internet on Friday. After all, it offered a ray of hope in the longstanding Rohingya crisis the country has been grappling with for over eight years now.

"Myanmar authorities have confirmed to Bangladesh that out of a list of 800,000 Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh, they have identified 180,000 Rohingyas eligible for return," the post reads.

The post also mentions that final verification of another 70,000 Rohingyas is pending additional scrutiny of their photographs and names. 

The original list was provided by Bangladesh in six batches during 2018-20. However, this is the first such confirmed list from the Myanmar side.

The news immediately made headlines across the media and sparked discussions among netizens. Most people are seeing it as a diplomatic success for Bangladesh and a step towards resolving the longstanding issue. In fact, many have already raised the question of whether it could eventually lead to Dr Yunus achieving a second Nobel Prize!

However, experts say it is too early to celebrate. According to them, the Rohingya's road to repatriation is more complex than it seems.

A promise or eyewash?

Altaf Parvez, a researcher on Southeast Asian and South Asian history and politics, thinks the discussion with Myanmar on the Rohingya issue is a positive step, but finds their statement not hopeful enough.

"It's been nearly eight years since this crisis began, and now, after all this time, they're saying only 180,000 Rohingyas are eligible to return. They haven't even confirmed that they will take them back — just said they're 'eligible.' This is quite offensive," he remarked.

"And the number itself is very small, only around 20% of the total. It clearly shows their little regard for the matter," he added.

Bangladesh is now home to over a million Rohingya refugees who have fled violence in Myanmar since 2017 and settled in Cox's Bazar. It has become one of the largest and most overcrowded refugee camps in the world.

Myanmar's decision was disclosed on Friday at a meeting on the sidelines of the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok. Parvez thinks it might be Myanmar's tactic to deal with the big question and enhance its image on such an international stage by offering hopes. But in reality, the Myanmar government has no control over the Rakhine state today.

"After all these years, they are confirming only 180,000 names. This feels like nothing more than an eyewash. We want a genuine solution," Shafiqur Rahman, a Rohingya refugee, told the Reuters news agency.

"Myanmar must take all of us back — not just a select few — and they must ensure we return with full rights, dignity and citizenship. Without that, this process means nothing to us," he said.

The complex road to repatriation 

When it comes to the Rohingya repatriation, it is not only about simply sending them back home. 

It is noteworthy that this is not the first time the issue of their repatriation has been brought up. Previous attempts in 2018 and 2019 to initiate the process failed, as the refugees refused to return to their homeland, where they still face systematic denial of citizenship and basic rights.

"The issue is way more complicated. Even if Myanmar claims that all Rohingyas are eligible to return, it does not solve the core issue. Before declaring them eligible, the environment for their safe return must be created there. It is not feasible to send them back without ensuring their safety in Rakhine state," Parvez noted.

This complexity puts Bangladesh in a moral dilemma as well.

However, Altaf Parvez believes Bangladesh should focus solely on sending the Rohingyas back to Myanmar. 

"It is not Bangladesh's responsibility to ensure their safety in their own place. Concerned international organisations should now address the safety issue louder than ever," he said.

It's the Arakan Army's call now

Nay San Lwin, a prominent Rohingya political activist and co-founder of Free Rohingya Coalition, highlights that in reality, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh cannot return as long as the Arakan Army controls their lands.

The people of Myanmar do not acknowledge the military junta as a legitimate government, as they do not have the people's mandate. The bigger problem is it does not control the Rakhine territory. In the case of Rakhine, the Arakan Army controls the region. But again, the state is not independent either, it is a part of Myanmar. 

"The complexity is right there, you see!" Lwin explained.

While engaging with the Myanmar government is okay, it is crucial to note that they are not the administrators of the region. Thus discussions will not be effective. 

Lwin suggests that the Bangladesh government should discuss and negotiate directly with the Arakan Army. Any resolution to the crisis will depend on their agreement — it is all in their hands now.

"It's important to note an open secret: the Arakan Army cannot survive without Bangladesh. As their only neighbouring country, they rely on Bangladesh's support. Therefore, Bangladesh must boldly engage in negotiations, leveraging this strategic position."