Parliamentary polls in April: Could late elections undermine credibility?
Outside the political arena, reactions are mixed.
After months of back and forth between political parties and the interim government, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus finally declared on 6 June that elections will be held in the first half of April next year.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), historically a dominant force in the political arena along with the now-banned Awami League, immediately rebuked the announcement.
The party's leadership has stuck to its guns, calling instead for elections by December this year. Citing the weather, exams and Ramadan in April, BNP leaders have threatened to "stay on the streets" until their demand for early elections are met.
Jamaat-e-Islami, another major political party, has accepted the April deadline, but said polls must not be deferred beyond that.
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The National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of last year's July Uprising, has also said it has no objection to the April deadline, but it called for implementing the July Movement proclamation before elections are held.
Outside the political arena, though, reactions are mixed.
While business leaders welcome the announcement, they fear the deterioration of law and order that usually precedes elections in the country.
Political analysts are also of the opinion that April is an inappropriate date for elections, citing Ramadan as a difficult month for campaigning activities. They also believe the "fairness" of the advisory council is questionable, since it comprises people with "close ties to certain political parties".
As the chief adviser is set to meet with BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman in London on Friday, experts think the leaders can find a middle ground and perhaps even agree on earlier elections.
'Regardless of date, current advisory council not equipped to ensure fair election'
Altaf Parvez, Researcher, South and Southeast Asian history and politics
The Chief Adviser's announcement that the national election will be held in April has somewhat eased public uncertainty. People now have a clearer timeframe to anticipate. However, it is still not entirely certain that the election will ultimately take place in April — there remains the possibility that the date could be revised or even brought forward.
Many are voicing concerns about holding an election during the sweltering heat of April. Indeed, April is not an ideal time for such a significant national event. In Bangladesh, elections are traditionally held in the cooler months, typically between December and March. Therefore, an April election would not only be unusual but also somewhat delayed by local standards.
However, many are citing India's example, where elections were held in extreme heat and many people died last year, suggesting we should learn from India. In reality, a direct comparison with India is not feasible. India is a vast country where the seasons are not uniform everywhere, and elections take a long time to conclude. For instance, last year, elections were held in seven phases from April to June. In contrast, elections in our country are completed in just one day.
That said, I believe the election timeline could still shift through behind-the-scenes negotiations among key stakeholders. There is a chance of discussions on this matter during the meeting between Tarique Rahman and Dr Yunus in London.
Additionally, I believe internal negotiations are already happening between the government and the BNP, the BNP and student groups, and also with the Jamaat. Perhaps we will see some results from these discussions in the next one or two months.
Another major concern surrounding the upcoming election is the current advisory council. Regardless of whether the election takes place in April or is brought forward, I believe this advisory council is not adequately equipped to ensure a free, fair and credible election.
While the Election Commission is formally responsible for conducting the polls, the government also plays a crucial role. It is expected to act as an active guardian, a role that this council does not seem capable of fulfilling.
The BNP has already raised objections against three advisors, while the student leaders have objected to two. These concerns are not without merit. Some members of the council are known to have close ties with various political parties, raising questions about their neutrality. As a result, demands for the removal of certain advisors are likely to intensify in the coming months.
Another point is the question of capability. As the election approaches, political conflict in the country will significantly increase. The law and order situation will further deteriorate. I do not believe these advisors will be capable of handling such situations.
Therefore, a controversy surrounding the changing or reshuffling of this advisory council before the election will most likely gain momentum. Politicians have not been very vocal about this issue yet, but as the election draws closer, a crisis will surely emerge concerning it.
TBS' Jannatul Naym Pieal spoke to Altaf Parvez over the phone.
'Election date brings hope for businesses, but peaceful execution essential'
Abul Kasem Khan, Chairman, Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD)
The recent announcement of an election roadmap, setting the stage for polls in April next year, is undoubtedly a positive development. For those involved in business and future investment, a clear roadmap provides a crucial continuity of process, alleviating the uncertainty that had been present.
The Chief Adviser's indication that the election will indeed happen in April is a good sign. This clarity is seen as beneficial for both new investors, whether domestic or foreign, and for existing businesses. It represents the continuation of the democratic process.
With the roadmap declared, much of the uncertainty that investors, both domestic and foreign, might have felt has dissipated. This could potentially lead to an increase in investment, as those considering putting money into the country now have a clearer timeline. The momentum for the election may likely pick up after Eid.
However, the mere announcement of a roadmap is not enough. It is imperative that the election process itself is conducted smoothly and peacefully. There is a strong call for all political parties to participate constructively with the government's efforts, ensuring the process is free from violence.
Elections in our country have historically seen significant issues related to law and order beforehand. A stable environment during this period is crucial, as international observers often pay close attention to the country's situation, which can deteriorate in the lead-up to elections.
Political parties also bear responsibility in this regard. Potential clashes could arise if opposing parties hold events like processions or rallies in the same location. It is hoped that the majority of political parties will act responsibly and be mindful of such situations.
Beyond the immediate election process, the election represents a continuation of the democratic process, which inherently creates accountability. This leads us to a critical point: policy continuity. For investment planning, policy continuity is vital.
Investors make decisions based on the expectation that a government will be in power for a set period, likely five years, and will maintain a consistent policy direction. It is from this trust that investment security is enhanced, and risk can be minimised. The business community has consistently stressed the importance of policy continuity.
Furthermore, implementing a robust system of public-private dialogue in policymaking is essential. The private sector should be actively engaged in this process, as they are major stakeholders. When business policies, such as tax policy, are developed with public-private participation involving businessmen, they are likely to be more enduring and effective, benefiting from everyone's input.
Regardless of which new government comes to power, there is a strong hope for continued policy stability and that policies will be developed through public engagement.
TBS' Nasif Tanjim spoke to Abul Kasem Khan over the phone.
'Elections amid Ramadan could restrict campaigning activities, undermine legitimacy'
Dr Mubashar Hasan, Political expert and Executive Director, Sydney Policy and Analysis Center
One of the key challenges facing the current government is maintaining impartiality. Concerns have already emerged in this regard.
For instance, the banning of the Awami League appears to have been based largely on the stance of the National Citizen Party (NCP), creating the impression of a government bias towards the NCP. Such actions underscore the importance of consulting all political stakeholders before making decisions of this magnitude.
The election has been scheduled for April. While the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has rejected the proposed date, Jamaat-e-Islami has expressed approval, and the NCP has also agreed. Despite the support of some parties, the election date should not be finalised without inclusive discussions.
Dr Yunus, though a seasoned banker and capable administrator, appears reluctant to consult widely before making significant decisions. This is troubling, particularly when these decisions have major political implications. The choice of the April election date is one such instance where no meaningful consultation seems to have taken place.
Although Dr Yunus may legally have the authority to announce the election date unilaterally, the country is already grappling with multiple challenges. Both the Army and the BNP have played roles in preventing further instability. While certain BNP elements have caused disruptions, these should be addressed as matters of law and order, not used as justification for excluding the party from dialogue.
Crucially, April is an unsuitable time for an election. In Bangladesh, election campaigns are not only integral to the democratic process but also part of the political culture. They foster public engagement and ensure transparency.
An April election means the campaign period will overlap with Ramadan, a time when public energy is low and religious observance takes precedence. This would severely restrict candidates' ability to campaign, undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Furthermore, the proposed timeline poses logistical challenges. An April election would necessitate the formation of a new government by May and the presentation of the national budget in June. This compressed schedule is difficult to manage effectively.
A more sensible path forward would be to consider holding the election in February. This would allow adequate time for campaigning and post-election governance. For this to happen, Dr Yunus must demonstrate flexibility, and the BNP must reconsider its insistence on a December election.
The scheduled meeting between Dr Yunus and Tarique Rahman on 13 June is therefore of critical importance. Constructive dialogue and a spirit of compromise from all parties are essential to ensuring a fair and stable electoral process.
TBS' Imran Hossain spoke to Mubashar Hasan over the phone
