Could Russia's growing fuel crisis help end the Ukraine war?

Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries have triggered a new fuel crisis in Russia.

Reuters news agency reports that at least 30 regions are now affected. Unlike the previous wave of shortages, which began in late May and lasted until mid-July, the current crisis is particularly affecting Moscow and the surrounding area, as is apparent from posts on social media. The gas station chains Gazprom Neft and Tatneft have already restricted the sale of fuel in the capital.

"You can't say there isn't any fuel. But it's obvious there's a crisis," says Oleg Grigorenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian independent media portal 7x7, which Russia has branded a "foreign agent." "It's not just a personal problem if you leave the city and don't know whether you can get back again, for example. It's also an economic problem."

Grigorenko reports that in several regions taxi drivers, courier services and the construction industry are already losing business, as many of their supply chains are fuel dependent. "The logistics of private construction companies is heavily reliant on gasoline," Grigorenko explains.

People are also having to queue for hours at gas stations in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar, according to local media. The authorities are blaming this on a supposed increase in demand during the holiday period.

But many locals are saying that this summer season is a disaster. Real estate agent Igor Zakharchenko, from Sochi on the Black Sea coast, wrote on Instagram: "With its quiet atmosphere and leisurely pace of life, Sochi today is reminiscent of the time before the Olympic Games, when there were still not many cars on the roads and the city had far fewer holidaymakers and inhabitants. But the thing is: There's no gas in Sochi."

Poor quality fuel

Speaking on the Russian broadcaster RTVI, Igor Ananskikh, first deputy chairman of the energy committee in the Russian parliament, said he expected the gas supply situation to normalize within two to three weeks.

Economist Nikolai Korzhenevsky says this is unlikely. He left Russia in protest at Moscow's war against Ukraine and now lives abroad. In an interview with DW, he highlighted the worsening quality of fuel in Russia. Acquaintances had sent him photos of their cars displaying error messages that indicate engine damage caused by impurities in the fuel.

"The car won't start and has to go to the garage. The same people are telling me garages have waitlists of several months, even in Moscow," Korzhenevsky says. "And then you have to wait again for months for replacement parts. Obviously, some vehicles can't handle the gasoline that's being put in their tanks."

He sees the ongoing problems in the oil and gas industry as harbingers of a much larger and lasting crisis.

Russia's oil exports have fallen more sharply during the war than ever before, Bloomberg news has reported. Oil production has also dropped.

"In 2019, Russia produced 11.5 million barrels per day," says Korzhenevsky. "Today it's less than 9 million. If this trend continues, and the problems with oil refining get worse, production may fall to 8 million barrels. That would create the conditions for a complete economic and systemic crisis."

He doesn't see any quick solution to these problems. In fact he sees Russia going down a similar route to Venezuela, an economy with national income in chronic decline.

Hoping for imports is illusory

The Russian authorities propose to remedy the fuel shortages with imports from India, China or other countries. But Vyacheslav Shiryaev, a Russian business journalist who also now lives abroad, says this is not viable.

Given Russia's current isolation, it's impossible to ensure a daily supply of 200,000 tons of fuel, which is the approximate amount of gasoline and diesel Russia needs every day, he told DW. Shiryaev, who publicly opposed the war in Ukraine, is also on the Russian authorities' list of so-called "foreign agents."

Another Russian economist on that list is Igor Lipsits. He told DW that the damaged refineries cannot quickly be restored and will be vulnerable to further air attacks.

This, he says, is why the authorities are already restricting fuel consumption. Municipal services vehicles — medical and rescue workers, police, firefighters — are allowed to jump the line and fill up and so are security personnel and the authorities.

"This is happening in front of people who've waited for hours and it's causing a lot of resentment," says Lipsits, a Kremlin critic who left his teaching post at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow because of increasing political pressure. He too now lives in exile in Europe.

To Lipsits, the current developments in Russia are strongly reminiscent of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"There were special supply systems for the elite, their own shops and warehouses where they could buy everything they wanted without much difficulty, without waiting in line, and at relatively low prices. That made Russians very angry," he recounts. "When Boris Yeltsin announced that he was going to abolish these closed distribution centers, the people enthusiastically supported him. We are now in a similar situation."

Lipsits says a closed system for fuel distribution is evolving in Russia that will make it a luxury to be able to drive a car.

The key to ending the war?

The economist Shiryaev believes Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets that serve both a military and a civilian purpose could cripple the Russian economy and hasten the end of the war. He believes it would end in just a few weeks if the West supported Ukraine in doubling or tripling the intensity of its attacks.

"Ukraine could bring about disorganization and chaos in the Russian interior, resulting in a total loss of control," Shiryaev says.

He also thinks the fuel shortage could have a decisive role in undermining the stability of Vladimir Putin's regime.

"If there's no diesel, Russia's 6,000-kilometer railway network comes to a halt," he says. "It could also cripple hundreds of factories and businesses. Without diesel, tens of thousands of trucks would be unable to run, food wouldn't get to the stores, and farmers wouldn't be able to harvest their crops."

Shiryaev says all this could result in curtailing Putin's plans to continue the war.

"If Ukraine destroys the whole oil refining infrastructure, Putin will find that, when he gives an order, it isn't implemented," the economist predicts. Everything will grind to a halt for lack of fuel.

Denis Kishinevsky is a Lithuanian journalist, public relations specialist, and political commentator.

Disclaimer: This opinion first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.