Beyond the numbers: The human cost of economic slowdown
Despite macroeconomic indicators suggesting stability, ordinary Bangladeshis are facing financial hardships, with declining incomes, rising costs, and reduced job opportunities affecting workers, small businesses, and households across multiple districts
While numbers and data can paint a sufficiently accurate picture of the macroeconomy, it can also lead us to miss the trees for the forest.
There is no denying that the banking sector, long battered by default loans, has now stabilised. Both remittance and forex reserves are indeed recovering. And the inflation and poverty rates can be justified as effects of a much-needed economic course correction.
But these indicators fail to grasp the intensity of hardships being faced by ordinary people.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
From construction workers and restaurant owners to shopkeepers, farmers, rickshaw pullers, and pharmacists, people from nearly every profession report sharp drops in earnings, reduced customer flow and job losses, particularly those outside Dhaka. Many households have cut back on food, medical treatment, and daily expenses just to survive.
TBS spoke to residents from five districts to paint a clearer picture of their struggles.
Rising costs and shrinking opportunities in Sylhet
Azman Ali, a mason from Ward 40 in Sylhet city, recalls busier times when construction work flowed steadily. The past two years, however, have been markedly different.
"People don't have money in their hands anymore. So now no one is doing construction work unless it's an urgent necessity. This situation started last year, and this year, work has decreased even further," he said.
Whatever we earn is spent on running the household. If someone falls ill, there is no extra money left to buy medicine. We have to borrow money to purchase the medicines.
"In other years, the peak season for construction usually began in November. But now it is December and I haven't received any major contracts — just one or two small jobs here and there," he added.
Subhash Modi, a worker at Lakkatura Tea Garden, earns a daily wage of Tk179. While his wage rose slightly by Tk8.5 this year, his expenses have increased sharply.
"We were already poor people. But now we have become even poorer. The prices of everything have gone up so much that it's hard to afford rice, lentils, and vegetables. Buying fish or meat is almost impossible. Most days, we survive on taro, vines, and different kinds of leafy vegetables that we collect from the garden," he said.
Bigger businesses are not faring any better.
Malay Dutta, manager of Golden City Hotel at Zindabazar, said the hotel business has suffered a severe downturn.
"People don't have money. There is also political uncertainty. As a result, tourists are not coming. Corporate programmes and other events have decreased as well. Over the past year, our income has dropped by half. In this situation, it has become very difficult just to keep the business running," he added.
After speaking to over 20 people from various professions in Sylhet, a clear pattern emerged: incomes have dropped, some have lost their jobs, day labourers no longer get regular work, and expenses continue to rise.
Syeda Shirin Akhtar, president of the Sylhet chapter of the Shachetan Nagarik Committee, observed, "The state of the economy is now very bad. The country has gone through a major political transition. Political stability has not yet returned. As a result, there is a general sense of uncertainty among people. That is why even those who have money are not spending it."
Clothing shops hit hardest in Brahmanbaria
Badhan Pal, owner of Boichitro Fashion on Mosque Road, said daily clothing sales have fallen from Tk20,000–25,000 to less than half that. After paying rent and other expenses, he can no longer make a profit.
"Under these circumstances, I am considering laying off shop employees to cut costs," he said.
As my customers are facing financial difficulties, they are not spending as much at my stall as they used to.
Asif Iqbal Khan, president of the City Centre Shop Owners' Association, said that several thousand clothing shops across the district are all struggling.
"People have reduced shopping because a sense of fear prevails among them. Incidents of sabotage in the name of political programmes have increased public anxiety. When even a single incident occurs in the town, customers from rural areas stop coming. As a result, clothing shops are facing severe losses," he said.
Cumilla's economy hit by uncertainty
Omar Faruk Manik used to work as a book binder in Dhaka.
"I didn't know any work other than book binding. I worked at the same institution for nearly 15 years. But after I was laid off, I returned to my village, learned how to drive an auto-rickshaw, and came to Cumilla city," he said.
Shah Alam, a mobile vegetable vendor, said, "Earlier, two or three others and I used to sell vegetables here. Now eight to ten vendors are selling. I don't get customers like before. With whatever little I earn, it's hard to survive."
We're not allowed to sit by the roadside anymore, so I have to go door to door. My daily earnings have dropped by over 50%.
Shah Md Alamgir Khan, president of the Cumilla chapter of the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (BAJUS), noted that gold prices have surged while sales have stalled.
"Those who run their businesses with white money are finding it extremely difficult to continue. Several businessmen among us are planning to exit the trade," he said.
Belal Hossain, owner of a sanitary shop, added, "Residential construction has decreased drastically. Our business situation is extremely fragile—it has dropped by half. Cumilla is an expanding city. People from outside used to buy from us, but after 5 August, many have gone into hiding or fled. Even those with the financial capability are hesitant to spend because there is no political stability. These are the reasons behind the slowdown."
Lakshmipur still suffering aftermath of floods
The rural economy of Lakshmipur district has yet to recover from the floods last year. As a result, people's incomes have declined, leading to reduced sales in various businesses.
Restaurant owner Mostafizur Rahman from Lakshmipur town said that compared to the same period two years ago, their sales have fallen by nearly 30–40% this year.
Niamat Hossain, a vegetable farmer from Bhabaniganj village in the Sadar upazila, said that floods last year caused heavy losses.
"This year, we still haven't been able to harvest vegetables properly. So our family's situation is not good. We won't be able to recover from these losses even in the next two to three years," he said.
Rod and cement trader Md Nurul Karim said that although the prices of rod and cement are currently low in the market, their daily sales have dropped by about 20% compared to last year.
Furniture trader Raju Hossain from Bhabaniganj Bazar said that a year ago, his furniture shop employed 10–12 workers, but now only six remain.
"Orders at the shop have declined, forcing me to cut back on employees. If stability returns to the country after the election and people's incomes increase, we will be able to do good business again," he added.
Bogura's businesses and households under strain
As one of northern Bangladesh's major commercial hubs, Bogura has over a hundred hotels and restaurants, yet owners report sales have fallen by at least 5% over the past year.
Abu Mottaleb Manik, a distributor for Yamaha in the area, said, "More than 150 motorcycles used to be sold each month from just one of our bike centres. Now selling even 80–100 units is difficult."
Sheikh Shekhar Roy, general secretary of the Bogura Mobile Traders' Association, said unofficial smartphone imports and high-interest loans have left traders helpless. "The absence of a political government for the past one and a half years has created widespread uncertainty. Nearly all businesses are now in distress," he said.
Civil engineer Junaid Mishara, owner of Mahir Enterprise, said construction work has dropped by half.
"People are no longer building new houses like before. Our income sources have shrunk. If this continues, we will have to shut down the firm and look for other means of earning," he said.
Households are struggling as well. Abida Begum, of Naogaon Sadar upazila, supports a family of eleven. She said,
"A year ago, one kilogram of good-quality lentils cost Tk130, but now it costs Tk180. Prices of medicines and other essentials have surged, while incomes have not kept pace — often declining instead. Last year, we incurred losses from potato farming. In this situation, I don't feel like pressuring my sons for money to buy medicine. Many times, without telling them, I have reduced my medication."
Pharmacy owner Arif Hasan Bipu said sales have declined from Tk20,000–30,000 daily to Tk10,000–15,000.
"Due to financial hardship, people are forced to buy only some of their prescribed medicines — not the full course. This has affected our business as well," he said.
