Rooftop solar push critical but challenging, warns IEEFA
Amid the country's ongoing energy crisis, the government's plan to install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of rooftop solar by December 2025 could be a major boost for renewable energy. However, a new briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) cautions that the target may be overly ambitious.
Between June 2008 and June 2025, Bangladesh installed only 245MW of rooftop solar capacity. Meeting the new target would require scaling up by more than 12 times within just six months.
"As government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000MW rooftop solar, the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings," said Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA's lead energy analyst for Bangladesh and the author of the note.
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He added that fund allocation, tendering, evaluation, issuing work orders, and project implementation may require extending the December 2025 deadline.
The note points out that only 15–20 high-quality Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) companies are active in the country, and their combined capacity may fall short of installing 3,000MW in the given timeframe.
Under the new programme, government offices will roll out installations through the CAPEX model supported by public funds, while hospitals and educational institutions will adopt the OPEX model with no upfront cost.
While the CAPEX model offers faster rollout and higher savings, it carries risks from rushed developer selection, weak maintenance, and poor coordination. The OPEX model ensures better quality but delivers lower savings and faces financing challenges, as well as risks associated with load-shedding in rural areas.
The note also highlights technical concerns, such as soiling, which can significantly reduce annual solar yield. To address this, IEEFA recommends that public offices create funds from monthly savings under the CAPEX model and enter long-term maintenance contracts. Utilities are also encouraged to explore methods for mitigating load-shedding risks in rural OPEX projects.
Drawing comparisons, the note highlights Pakistan's rooftop solar expansion amid supply shortages and tariff hikes, Sri Lanka's government-backed financing model, and India's policy-driven success, with more than 18 GW of rooftop solar capacity as of May 2025.
Bangladesh's rooftop solar sector is still in its early stages. Capacity development of key stakeholders and agencies, alongside an independent monitoring mechanism, will be vital for success," Alam emphasised.
