'Tarique Rahman's return unlikely to ease security tensions immediately'
The security expert also observed that incidents of anarchy and vandalism could decline with Tarique Rahman’s presence
The return of BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman does not automatically ensure an improvement in the country's security situation, said Brigadier General (retd) Mustafa Kamal Rusho of the Osmani Centre for Peace and Security Studies.
Speaking to The Business Standard, Rusho said Tarique Rahman's homecoming could encourage greater political engagement and potentially contribute to stability, but only if the broader political process – particularly the upcoming elections – is conducted in a fair and peaceful manner.
He cautioned that the security environment is more likely to remain tense and politically charged in the short term, rather than becoming immediately calmer.
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According to Rusho, Tarique Rahman's return is expected to unite BNP supporters under one banner, though he warned that the BNP leader himself may continue to face security threats.
"His life may not be beyond danger," he said.
Rusho noted that Tarique Rahman is likely to quickly attract youth support by directly engaging them and seeking their participation in nation-building.
"Paying tribute to key moments and sentiments will further strengthen that connection," he added.
He also observed that incidents of anarchy and vandalism could decline with Tarique Rahman's presence.
"However, many people will perceive him as the major power behind the scenes, especially given the extensive state machinery mobilised for his security and homecoming," Rusho said.
The analyst further said the BNP is likely to gain the backing of swing voters following the show of strength and popular support witnessed on the day of Tarique Rahman's return.
"The vacuum and internal rifts that existed within the party are expected to narrow," he said.
While expressing hope for an overall improvement in security except targeted killings, Rusho cautioned that broader stability may remain elusive.
"Stability may not improve significantly, as factors such as economic conditions, investment flows and external influences will continue to play a role," he added.
